Author Topic: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase  (Read 1620 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #100 on: June 22, 2026, 11:30:02 am »
9 teams, 4.5 game spread, for 3 wild card spots:

Cards  41-34  +2
Phils   42-35   +2
Cubs   40-37   ---
=============
SD       39-37  -0.5
MIA      40-38  -0.5
Nats   40-38  -0.5
AZ         39-38   -1
Pitt         39-39   -1.5
Reds       37-39   -2.5

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #101 on: June 22, 2026, 11:30:32 am »
Even if they get swept they will still be in the hunt. Phillies bullpen game tonight I think.

Edit:  Hearing it might be Alan Rangel called up from Lehigh Valley.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #102 on: June 22, 2026, 05:23:15 pm »
Even if they get swept they will still be in the hunt. Phillies bullpen game tonight I think.

Edit:  Hearing it might be Alan Rangel called up from Lehigh Valley.
well, losing the series 3-1 or 4-0 would put at least 1 of the playoff positions significantly more difficult to overtake

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #103 on: June 22, 2026, 10:51:00 pm »
Alive for another day!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #104 on: June 22, 2026, 10:56:25 pm »
Miami, Reds, AZ, and of course Phillies lose, Nats and Cards win, Cubs rained out, Pirates off. Padres 0-0 after 3.

Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #105 on: June 23, 2026, 09:33:11 am »
Three games above .500, and 1.5 behind the Phillies. Tied with the Cubs and Padres for the third WC spot.


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #106 on: June 23, 2026, 09:59:32 am »
Three games above .500, and 1.5 behind the Phillies. Tied with the Cubs and Padres for the third WC spot.


Game ahead of the Fish,  1.5 ahead of the Pirates and D-backs.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #107 on: June 26, 2026, 12:25:50 pm »
Still on the fringe of things. Cards look like the other recent dropping team but still with a spot.

Phillies  45-36   +1.5
Cubs     44-37   +0.5
Cards    42-36     ----
================
Padres   42-37    -0.5
Marlins   42-39    -1.5
Dbacks   41-39    -2
Pirates    41-40    -2.5
Nats       41-41    -3

Reds now 5.5 back.


Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #108 on: June 28, 2026, 12:20:59 pm »
Back to .500.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #109 on: June 29, 2026, 12:17:31 pm »
I'm going to post both the NL and the AL wild  card standings because a big dynamic in this series will be which team can build off their weekend series to move up in their league's wild card race. The Red Sox swept the Yankees mostly off the strength of their pitching and are on the fringe of contention despite being well below .500.

NL
Phillies   47-37   +2.5
Cubs      46-38   +1.5
Cards     43-38     -.-
=================
Padres    43-39    -0.5
Marlins   44-40     -0.5
Nats      43-42    - 2.0
Pirates    42-42     -2.5
Dbacks    41-42    -3.0
Reds       39-43    -4.5


AL
NYY          48-35   +7.0
G-dians     44-40   +2.5
Mariners    42-43     -.-
==================
Astros        42-44   -0.5
As              40-44   -1.5
Twins          40-45   -2.0
B-Jays         39-45   -2.5
Os               39-46   -3.0
Boston         36-46   - 4.5

Not much of spread behind  the Red Sox to the next two teams, Angels and Tigers, at -6 and -6.5, respectively. With 6 teams ahead of them for the last wild card they are at best fringey and need to continue their hot streak.

Cubs beating  the Brewers twice in a row substantially helped their cause.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #110 on: June 29, 2026, 01:16:51 pm »
Nobody at or under .500 should make the playoffs.  I'd support a rule that if a league can't fill its spots with above-.500 teams, the best team from the other league crosses over.

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #111 on: June 29, 2026, 02:25:45 pm »
Only 2 teams under .500 have made the playoffs, both in shortened seasons.  I'd like to have more of this...year-round baseball.  Just eliminate the last place teams at the end of the regular season and start all over again. 
Nobody at or under .500 should make the playoffs.  I'd support a rule that if a league can't fill its spots with above-.500 teams, the best team from the other league crosses over.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #112 on: July 03, 2026, 12:11:18 pm »
Shuffle at the top of the NL wild card standings as the Cubs (9-1 over last 10) slipped ahead of the Phillies (7-3 over last 10). 5.5 game spread among the 8 teams looking for 3 spots.

Cubs      49-38   + 2.5
Phillies   49-39    + 2.0
Cards     45-39       -.-
================
Marlins    46-42    - 1.0
Nats        45-43    - 2.0
Dbacks    43-43     - 3.0
Padres     43-43     - 3.0
Pirates     44-44     - 3.0

Cards are at the Cubs and Pirates at the Nats for 3 will change the games ahead/ games back if not the places. SD visits the Doyers for 3, while the Dbacks entertain the Brewers and the Phillies have their trip to KC interrupted tonight by the World Cup. Miami is at the Athletics.

Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #113 on: July 04, 2026, 10:45:11 am »
Now three games above .500, although 4th place in the NLE.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #114 on: July 06, 2026, 12:27:18 pm »
Nats and 3 others are 1 over or 1 under. Nats and Pittsburgh are 3 back Cards and Marlins (Cards with an edge for WC  #3). Phillies and Cubs are 1.5 up on Cards/Marlins.

Was hoping for  2 out of 3 vs the Pirates, so the weekend stunk.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #115 on: July 13, 2026, 11:24:36 am »
Thread is still open until there's a decision to pull the plug. Nats are now at the back of the pack, 4 behind 3rd wild card, in the 8 teams chasing 3 playoff spots race.

Cubs    54-42   +2.5
Phillies 54-43   +2.0
Marlins 52-45    -.-
=================
Cards    50-45   -1.0
Pirates   50-47   -2.0
DBacks   49-47   -2.5
Padres    48-48   -3.5
Nats       48-49   -4.0


Online Ali the Baseball Cat

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #116 on: July 13, 2026, 11:53:08 am »
Damned Yankees

Offline Slateman

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #117 on: July 13, 2026, 12:14:43 pm »
Okay, its been done before. There have been greater disparities that have been overcome.

But it would require giving up a lot more than I think Toboni is willing to.

You have to get a starting pitcher and it has to be a decent one. Basically, someone that would start a playoff game. They have to eat some innings. A part of why our bullpen is struggling is that, since Alvarez joined the rotation, the bullpen is basically being asked to pick up 1-3 extra innings that a starter should be eating, for three out of the five rotation spots. That's a lot. That has to stop. You need another starter who can give you 5+ innings of good pitching.

Second, we need another lefty reliever that can get left-handed hitters out. Poulin seems somewhat capable, with a .262 wOBA in 18.2 innings.  Cosgrove might be this guy, but he has a grand total of 1.1 innings pitched with us so who knows. In 28 innings at the MLB level in his career, left handed hitters have .241/.317/.370 line against him. That's not exactly great. This seems like a need with Herz probably done for the year.

Third, we need a back of the bullpen-capable arm. We need another Beeter-type arm. Someone who can get strikeouts. They don't necessarily have to be "the closer" but we have to at least feel as good about handing them the 9th inning as we did Beeter or Lord two weeks ago.

Fourth, probably another mid-level reliever. The current bullpen has 1 reliever with an ERA over 5. It's 3 if you use FIP or xERA. This doesn't include Cosgrove and his 1.1 innings of work. The point is, this has to be mitigated. Whether those come from internal options (Trevor Williams, Josiah Gray, Eddy Yean, Luis Perales, Jarlin Susana, ect), or Toboni goes out and gets someone, this team can not claw back 4 games without decent bullpen work. I don't need a super pen. I'm not saying trade for Mason Miller, but an ERA under 4.50 would go a long way to helping.

Finally, the manager and the front office need to optimize to win games and series. We're still running out lineups that have Dylan Crews and Andres Chapparo in them. Meanwhile, Ortiz and Morales are tearing the ball up in Triple A. You have to start putting the team in a position to win. Not develop players. Not give guys time to figure it out. We hammer the pedal down and go.


That's a lot that has to be done and, frankly, I don't see ownership being willing to spend a lot on a team four games back. So how much is Toboni willing to give up out of the Top 10 prospects to get this done?

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #118 on: July 13, 2026, 12:58:49 pm »
Ortiz was most definitely not tearing up the ball in AAA.

.083 / .214 / .167 in his last 7 days (4 games) prior to being called up (including 2-28 in July)
.178 / .268 / .425 in his last 28 days (19 games)

Vs LHP: .167 / .265 / .433

He's a LH platoon with Chaparro at best, but we already have that in Garcia Jr.

Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #119 on: July 18, 2026, 07:37:30 pm »
Still at .500.

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #120 on: July 18, 2026, 07:49:12 pm »
Baseball Reference has the Nats at about a 25 percent of making the playoffs.  Seems a bit high to me. They are 5/6 games behind the Cubs and Phillies and those seem like solid teams.  So probably just the last spot up for grabs and there are four teams ahead now. Can’t say any of them are great teams but probably need to pass all four.  And San Diego right behind.

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #121 on: July 18, 2026, 10:24:17 pm »
We have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way iirc

Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #122 on: Yesterday at 12:54:02 pm »
Just find a couple of Major League relievers, Toboni. The rotation will not be great, but still better when some of the injured guys return. And the lineup is just fine.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #123 on: Yesterday at 07:52:28 pm »
The Cubs and, to a lesser extent, the Phillies have put some distance between them and the teams fighting for the 3rd wild card.

Cubs     56-43  +4.5
Phillies  55-45  +3.0
Cards    51-47    -.-
===============
Marlins  52-48    -.-
Pirates   52-48   -.-
DBacks  51-48    -0.5
Nats      50-50    -2.0
Padres   49-50    -2.5


Offline welch

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Re: For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase
« Reply #124 on: Today at 12:22:29 pm »
Even with a mediocre rotation and the all-time worst bullpen, this Nats team hangs at .500, two games out of a wild card spot. Maybe it's time to invite Mike Rizzo to work his magic over AJ Preller. Trade this year's equivalent of Steven Souza, Jr. (maybe Crews??) for a batch of Padres prospects.