For While it Lasts - Tracking the Nats Wild Card Chase

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Right now, there are 8 teams separated by 2.5 games pursuing the 3 NL wild card slots.

Padres 32-26  +1
Cards 31-26  +0.5
D-backs 31-27   -
- - - - - - - - - -
Pirates 32-28    -
Cubs 32-28       -
Reds 30-28         -1
Nats 31-29      -1
Phillies 30-29   -1.5

[imref]

certainly didn't expect this thread.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

certainly didn't expect this thread.

a bit reluctant to put this up because we haven't made it past June. Remember 2021 and 2024. Even last year, the big tail off didn't start until after the 30th win, when the Nats went on an 11 game losing streak  after  a 30-33 start.

[imref]

a bit reluctant to put this up because we haven't made it past June. Remember 2021 and 2024. Even last year, the big tail off didn't start until after the 30th win, when the Nats went on an 11 game losing streak  after  a 30-33 start.

if you can't enjoy winning, what's the point?

[blue911]

if you can't enjoy winning, what's the point?

You ought to see us at parties.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

if you can't enjoy winning, what's the point?

We get more excited about trading everyone away.

[Slateman]

If we're legit chasing the WC, we are buying at the deadline. What are we buying?

Even if you stick with the rotation, this bullpen needs a massive overhaul. Some of that could come from the minors, particularly if you're willing to use guys like Susana, Herz, and Perales out of the pen in 1 inning spurts. But even then, you probably need to pick up a competent reliever.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I don't  think it's that unusual to thicken the bullpen towards the deadline. We've been dealing relievers for years. If we are in it, there should be guys available. As for top-level guys who could close, that may get too rich. If their teams are out, then maybe you could think of Chapman or Ryan Helsley. There really  aren't a ton of guys doing well in relief on bad teams that don't have much more team control who might get dumped at the deadline.  We are probably going to just have to hope that Varland or Beeter ends up  a top guy.

[welch]

Just finish .500, Nats.

[PowerBoater69]

We're rooting for the Mets, Braves, and Giants today. If they all win, along with the Nats, we end the day in a tie for a Wild Card spot.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cards 34-28 +1.5
Phils    34-30 +0.5
Padres 33-30 --
- - - - - - - - - -- - -- - - - -
Pirates 34-31 --
Cubs    34-31 --
D-backs 33-31 -0.5
Nats 33-32  -1
Reds     31-32   -2

[welch]

Just keep winning. Finish at around .500, meaning fans have an even chance of seeing Nats win, and, at worst, a close loss. Anything above .500 is worth a parade.

[Natsinpwc]

The main issue with trying to trade in June is not many teams have given up on the wild card.  Maybe Colorado and SF in the NL.  Three months of Robbie Ray anyone?  Detroit, KC and the Angels in the AL maybe. We’re not getting Skubal.

And the issue with trading prospects is that they dont all make it. So look like we have a bunch on infielders but some will flub. Trade some and there’s a risk you trade the wrong ones.

I just can’t see Toboni trading prospects to maybe get a wild card this year.  I think he had a long term view.  That’s why Gore was traded. Stick with the plan.  And enjoy the wild card race.  Maybe it will last.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

And the issue with trading prospects is that they dont all make it. So look like we have a bunch on infielders but some will flub. Trade some and there’s a risk you trade the wrong ones.

I just can’t see Toboni trading prospects to maybe get a wild card this year.  I think he had a long term view. 

There's risk in trading prospects, but you  hope you self-scouted, know your depth, and get a fair price for  your  org objectives.

There's a lot of depth at MI in the minors. So much so, we can't play all the shortstops at shortstop. I think you can run the risk of dealing one for an upgrade in the MLB roster at some point. I'm just not on board with doing that in early June for long shot at the playoffs. Talk to me in a month and half, when fewer teams are involved, and we are in a leading position and not a chasing one.

[welch]

There's risk in trading prospects, but you  hope you self-scouted, know your depth, and get a fair price for  your  org objectives.

There's a lot of depth at MI in the minors. So much so, we can't play all the shortstops at shortstop. I think you can run the risk of dealing one for an upgrade in the MLB roster at some point. I'm just not on board with doing that in early June for long shot at the playoffs. Talk to me in a month and half, when fewer teams are involved, and we are in a leading position and not a chasing one.

Of those shortstops, only Seaver King is at Rochester, and he just got there. Fitz-Gerald and Cruz are at Wilmington, and Willits, Fien, and Dickerson are at Fredburg. Cayden Wallace is plaing 2B at Harrisburg.

Not enough are playing high enough -- AA and AAA -- to know, yet, who will flame out. Keep them a while longer.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Of those shortstops, only Seaver King is at Rochester, and he just got there. Fitz-Gerald and Cruz are at Wilmington, and Willits, Fien, and Dickerson are at Fredburg. Cayden Wallace is plaing 2B at Harrisburg.

Not enough are playing high enough -- AA and AAA -- to know, yet, who will flame out. Keep them a while longer.

I kind of think the opposite. When they are that far off, I think they have enough risk that I'm willing to take a chance if the reward is high enough. Willits I  hang onto. Most everyone else has a price.

[Slateman]

Legit question: How many "good" relievers would we need to buy at the deadline for this team to be a legit contender?

I figure three, one of which has to be a closer and another has to be a decent lefty

[blue911]

Legit question: How many "good" relievers would we need to buy at the deadline for this team to be a legit contender?

I figure three, one of which has to be a closer and another has to be a decent lefty

At least 3. How many starters?

[Slateman]

At least 3. How many starters?

Honestly, none unless you are willing to give up a top 100 prospect for a really big one. You just don't let your starters go through the order twice or get into trouble.

[blue911]

Honestly, none unless you are willing to give up a top 100 prospect for a really big one. You just don't let your starters go through the order twice or get into trouble.

I’d rather move CJ and not confuse a good run for a good team.

[Slateman]

I’d rather move CJ and not confuse a good run for a good team.

That's where I'm at. Toboni committed to a rebuild when he traded Gore. We have no non-back of the rotation arms in the system, as Syroka, Rossario, and Susana will all be on heavy innings limits this year. Bite the bullet, trade CJ, Garcia, Griffin, Littell, and maybe even Cavalli and push the rebuild over the edge.

[blue911]

That's where I'm at. Toboni committed to a rebuild when he traded Gore. We have no non-back of the rotation arms in the system, as Syroka, Rossario, and Susana will all be on heavy innings limits this year. Bite the bullet, trade CJ, Garcia, Griffin, Littell, and maybe even Cavalli and push the rebuild over the edge.

Go and watch Fredericksburg, even without Willits and Sime, the team is loaded with talent. It looks like 2028 is realistic for putting together a team that could play deep into the playoffs. They’ll want all the prospects in the world at that point for trade bait.

[imref]

Bump!

[Slateman]

Go and watch Fredericksburg, even without Willits and Sime, the team is loaded with talent. It looks like 2028 is realistic for putting together a team that could play deep into the playoffs. They’ll want all the prospects in the world at that point for trade bait.

Not on the pitching side. 2028 is the absolute earliest we're getting any notable pitching help. And that's assuming that everything goes perfectly with Rosario and Syroka (which I highly doubt considering both now have a history of injuries).

[blue911]

Not on the pitching side. 2028 is the absolute earliest we're getting any notable pitching help. And that's assuming that everything goes perfectly with Rosario and Syroka (which I highly doubt considering both now have a history of injuries).

Which is where trading CJ comes in.