2026 Attendance Predictions

[IanRubbish]

I'll go with 23,000, or about 1.86 million, down around 900 per game from last year.  Visiting fans and summer concerts will continue to boost the numbers significantly. 

[varoadking]

1,802,250 over 81 games...22,250/game...with an initial interest in the new regime suffering a steep drop in attendance after the All-Star break having posted a 36-63 record in the first half...

[HalfSmokes]

1.9 million- same as last year. Things aren’t any bleaker and the economy isn’t any worse, so I’m assuming that’s the floor

[imref]

1.9 million- same as last year. Things aren’t any bleaker and the economy isn’t any worse, so I’m assuming that’s the floor

1.8

[GataNats]

1.9 million- same as last year. Things aren’t any bleaker and the economy isn’t any worse, so I’m assuming that’s the floor

Economy is much worse

[JCA-CrystalCity]

At some point, the fed workforce and contractor cutbacks will cut into entertainment spending in this area. Also, if your kid is to have a sports hero, then wouldn't the pick be Rodman ahead of Wood, Crews  Lile, or Abrams?

[HalfSmokes]

At some point, the fed workforce and contractor cutbacks will cut into entertainment spending in this area. Also, if your kid is to have a sports hero, then wouldn't the pick be Rodman ahead of Wood, Crews  Lile, or Abrams?

My kids chose Citron over Rodman and Wood. Lots of options for kids now. Ironically. The Nats and United are the only local teams not regularly broadcast on our YouTubetv package- NWSL and WNBA are both easier to find than our local mlb team. Great job to the Lerners and Manfred- way to expand your fanbase

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I will cut them a little slack just because they are setting up nats.tv outlets

[HalfSmokes]

I will cut them a little slack just because they are setting up nats.tv outlets

I don’t - there is almost zero chance it will be available on base packages for YouTube or Hulu and the mlb doesn’t have a good cable package for local teams

[PowerBoater69]

Back before Camillo they used to pad the attendance number by papering the house. I wouldn't be surprised if they went back to that. Lots of discount coupons for $5 tickets for outfield seats. I'm not sure if RCR point tickets counted towards the attendance numbers, but I used to have what seemed like an unlimited number of tickets for friends and co-workers.

[imref]

Zuck shared the media predictions in today's newsletter: Paige Leckie at the low end with 1.02M, Camerato at the high end with 2.02M. Most were around the 1.8-1.9 mark (Zuck was at 1.782)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

1.02? Any explanation? That's a huge drop off.

[imref]

1.02? Any explanation? That's a huge drop off.

no, but she also had us only winning 53 games

[catocony]

I would think attendance will be a bit lower than last year, but not a massive falloff.  It just depends on any upside surprises there might be but if the weather is nice people will come out on the weekends.  A chilly night over the next couple of weeks might bring the all-time regular scheduled game low though.

Anyways, I look forward to getting more cut-rate Club seats off of Seatgeek for the 6-10 games I'll go to this season. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

1785000. Figure about a 21K SPH base, 6 big crowds vs Dodgers and Yanks, and very little beyond that.

[nats2playoffs]

1,712,345

  

[IanRubbish]

24,383 1st 10 games vs. 23,937 1st 10 last year

last year's first 10 turned out be very close to 23,959 final average, but this year could be a little inflated from the opening Dodger series

[IanRubbish]

24,035 1st 13 homes dates last year vs. 22,402 this year

Braves series last week was a big bust, we'll see how this weekend does vs the Brewers

[RobDibblesGhost]

The Nats are 3-12 at home, by far the worst in MLB. No other team has fewer than 6 home wins. Unacceptable and they’ll get the attendance they deserve for such an awful product.

[imref]

Nusbaum:

Nats Park has seen the biggest attendance drop of any park in MLB. Average attendance through the first 16 home games of 2025 and 2026...

2025: 26,206
2026: 22,094

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7250718/2026/05/04/washington-nationals-fan-survey-gore/?source=emp_shared_article

[HalfSmokes]

Ownership and the GM made it very clear they aren’t trying this year. Props to the fans for responding by staying home

[PowerBoater69]

I posted this article here a few years before the World Series, noting that winning the championship has been known to lead to a drop in attendance, referred to as the "gap effect". Going many years between World Series wins leads to higher and higher attendance.

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/287415857_Estimating_the_World_Series_Gap_Effect_on_Attendance

...the longer a baseball team does not win a World Series, the less incentive there is to win the World Series...It is therefore possible that the marketing and promotional aims of a sports team may run counter to the organization goal of victory...It is assumed that the goal of winning is unified throughout the organization. This study builds on prior research by relaxing this assumption and allowing for the potential of goal diversity within the organization...While possible that some dissenting fans will leave the team and not attend games, it is also possible that another group of fans will bond and commiserate together. While vocal in their displeasure, they still attend games. The shared misery of these fans could be a unifying influence for fans and increase attendance in excess of performance...this effect exceeds attendance benefits of winning the World Series, victory could potentially endanger this effect and reduce the team’s long-term attendance. The result can provide a disincentive to winning the World Series...The winning ratio is a significant and positive influence on attendance...The measure of years since World Series win variable is significant and positive. While the number of the gap effect fans is initially very small, they grow marginally over time at a rate of about 1,769 fans per year. After a prolonged period without a World Series victory, the gap effect fans can represent a substantial portion of the team’s overall fan base...for teams which have developed an extreme time gap since a World Series victory, the gap effect creates a perverse incentive against winning...

[IanRubbish]

Ownership and the GM made it very clear they aren’t trying this year. Props to the fans for responding by staying home

Agree.  Could have the lowest attendance since the move ex-the Covid years.  Could get even worse if/when they dump CJ's salary.

[Slateman]

Ownership and the GM made it very clear they aren’t trying this year. Props to the fans for responding by staying home

Does establish a floor though. Like this is the least interested fans have been in the team, and they're still bringing in 22K a game.

[IanRubbish]

Does establish a floor though. Like this is the least interested fans have been in the team, and they're still bringing in 22K a game.

19,031 average since the Dodger fans invaded for the opening series