Author Topic: projected record and standings - 2026 (Read 1514 times)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **on:** January 29, 2026, 01:33:21 pm »

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-late-january-zips-projected-standings-update/

Nats median projection via ZiPS simulation is 63 wins, second worst in MLB behind the Rockies at 61. 20th percentile is 55 wins, 80th percentile is 72 wins.

imref · « **Reply #1 on:** January 29, 2026, 02:35:24 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on January 29, 2026, 01:33:21 pm

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-late-january-zips-projected-standings-update/

Nats median projection via ZiPS simulation is 63 wins, second worst in MLB behind the Rockies at 61. 20th percentile is 55 wins, 80th percentile is 72 wins.

seems optimistic. We might be lucky to win 6 games in our division this year.

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #2 on:** January 29, 2026, 02:36:27 pm »

Seems like things are really turning around

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #3 on:** January 29, 2026, 02:55:06 pm »

Quote from: HalfSmokes on January 29, 2026, 02:36:27 pm

Seems like things are really turning around

yes. Multiple times in one spot. Kind of like Olympic figure skaters.

HondoKillebrew · « **Reply #4 on:** January 29, 2026, 02:56:09 pm »

Are the Nats eligible to get a lottery draft pick for ‘27?

varoadking · « **Reply #5 on:** January 29, 2026, 04:24:59 pm »

55-107 seems pretty legit...this is as bad a roster as I can recall since I began following them in 2011...

zimm_da_kid · « **Reply #6 on:** January 29, 2026, 04:26:29 pm »

Quote from: HondoKillebrew on January 29, 2026, 02:56:09 pm

Are the Nats eligible to get a lottery draft pick for ‘27?

Yes!

Sucks we were never in the running for Cho low sky this year though

imref · « **Reply #7 on:** January 29, 2026, 04:34:39 pm »

Quote from: varoadking on January 29, 2026, 04:24:59 pm

55-107 seems pretty legit...this is as bad a roster as I can recall since I began following them in 2011...

that's the most optimistic thing you've ever posted.

varoadking · « **Reply #8 on:** January 29, 2026, 05:01:04 pm »

Quote from: imref on January 29, 2026, 04:34:39 pm

that's the most optimistic thing you've ever posted.

I try my best to keep the forum fair and balanced...

imref · « **Reply #9 on:** January 29, 2026, 06:12:36 pm »

Quote from: varoadking on January 29, 2026, 05:01:04 pm

I try my best to keep the forum fair and balanced...

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #10 on:** January 29, 2026, 07:41:08 pm »

Quote from: varoadking on January 29, 2026, 05:01:04 pm

I try my best to keep the forum fair and balanced...

that's a way to outfox us

OfftheBat · « **Reply #11 on:** February 05, 2026, 09:00:34 am »

Quote from: varoadking on January 29, 2026, 04:24:59 pm

55-107 seems pretty legit...this is as bad a roster as I can recall since I began following them in 2011...

Sportsbooks have them at under 65.5 wins at -130... I think this might be a good investment🤣

Slateman · « **Reply #12 on:** February 05, 2026, 09:12:34 am »

Gonna be optimistic and say 68 wins

imref · « **Reply #13 on:** February 05, 2026, 09:16:09 am »

63-99

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #14 on:** February 05, 2026, 09:39:57 am »

I’m going crazy. 70-92. Cause they can get a high draft pick in 2027 so they’ll mess that up.

nobleisthyname · « **Reply #15 on:** February 05, 2026, 09:22:24 pm »

Give me 66-96.

English Natsie · « **Reply #16 on:** February 06, 2026, 04:36:22 am »

Given Gore's departure, CJ likely away by the Deadline, lots of young prospects and significant turnover in the coaching and organization staff then this season is going to be one of 'bedding-in' retrenchment.

61 - 101

HalfSmokes · « **Reply #17 on:** February 06, 2026, 08:38:16 am »

62-100

SkinsNatFan21RIP · « **Reply #18 on:** February 06, 2026, 09:36:08 am »

48-wins. This team is going to be horrible.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #19 on:** February 06, 2026, 09:40:41 am »

FG's up with its power rankings. They currently have the Nats 28th, ahead of the ChiSox and Rox, at a projected 69-93.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-spring-training-2026-no-18-30/

imref · « **Reply #20 on:** February 10, 2026, 12:13:05 pm »

https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/88825/fangraphs-zips-doesnt-like-2026-nationals-does-that-matter

imref · « **Reply #21 on:** February 10, 2026, 02:19:48 pm »

Baseball Prospectus PECOTA has us at 66-96.

IanRubbish · « **Reply #22 on:** March 21, 2026, 11:48:31 am »

Going to go with a very sunshine 71-91. And no, this should not be seen as a "success", still a failure by ownership.

Reason for improvement will be pitching. Team was 29th in ERA last year, and I'm feeling more like 23rd or 24th this year. The appalling Hickey shuffle of averaging 19-20 pitches an inning + having a historically bad bullpen will be gone. Offense will likely be mid-20s out of 30 .OPS bad, maybe worse. At least the games will be quick.

aspenbubba · « **Reply #23 on:** March 21, 2026, 12:13:41 pm »

64-98

Edit: 60-102 . After todays 3 hit masterpiece I felt compelled to be a little less optimistic.

"THE HITLESS WONDERS"

NatsLSU · « **Reply #24 on:** March 21, 2026, 02:44:46 pm »

49-113

Our pitching is abysmal and can’t count on Cade to stay healthy. House and Wood and a whole lot of meh. Probably send Abrams packing before the deadline.