The Rotation (2026)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mikolas has an interesting structure to his contract. Per Cot's:

1 year/$2.25M (2026)

    signed by Washington as a free agent 2/11/26
    performance bonuses based on innings, games pitched:
        $100,000 each for 100 IP or 30 g, 110 IP or 40 g, 120 IP or 50 g
        $200,000 for 130 IP or 60 g
        $250,000 for 140 IP or 70 g

If he's healthy and takes regular turns, he may earn the first two or three bonuses before the trade deadline, so figure things go right, the Nats are out $1.7 million to that point. If he's dealt, the last 2 months pay and $450-550,000 bonuses, or $1.3 million, would be on the acquiring team. Of course, if he's waived, they are on the hook for at least the base $2.25 million (less I suppose the MLB minimum if someone picks him up). 

[Smithian]

crap, forgot about him.


So now I'm wondering if someone is hurt.

Lord, Irvin, and Parker all have options. Triple A is a good place to revamp their deliveries and pitch mixes.

Gotta assume that Griffin will get the most leeway, but that Mikolis and Littell either perform well enough to be dealt at the deadline, or get cut to make room for Lord/Irvin/Parker/Alvarez/Perales

I think they're starting over with at least Irvin and Parker. Rochester would be better for them.

I think Lord is swing man this season.

Mikolas is cheap so it won't be hard for them to cut ties if someone in Rochester is performing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Likely Littell and maybe Gray will not be ready opening day, but there's a decent chance that none of last year's opening day starters are rotation regulars this year. Littell, Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, and Gray could be how they go. Even if Lord makes the rotation, he didn't get his 1st start until his 4th appearance, only started for about a month, then did not move into the rotation full-time until 7/22.

As much as we derided the lack of moves this year then thought the Gore deal was a doomer for the season, the rotation may end up  better than last year. Easy benchmark, of course, but if Littell's results (ERA) are similar to last year, I think the rest of the staff behind him is an upgrade  (maybe excepting Mikolas).

Probably should be in the Sunshine thread.

[Slateman]

I think they're starting over with at least Irvin and Parker. Rochester would be better for them.

I think Lord is swing man this season.

Mikolas is cheap so it won't be hard for them to cut ties if someone in Rochester is performing.

I think Lord would be great as a reliever.

[imref]

Cavalli is the OD starter per The Nats Report.

[imref]

Nats officially announce Cade as the opening day starter.

[imref]

Rotation projection: https://www.talknats.com/2026/03/13/rotations-from-double-a-triple-a-to-mlb-for-the-nats-organization/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rotation projection: https://www.talknats.com/2026/03/13/rotations-from-double-a-triple-a-to-mlb-for-the-nats-organization/

not buying it. I could see Irvin keeping a spot if Littell or Gray is not ready and on the IL, but I don't see Gray as out of the rotation if he's healthy.

[nobleisthyname]

Makes more sense to me to convert Lara to being a reliever before doing so with Perales.

[Slateman]

Makes more sense to me to convert Lara to being a reliever before doing so with Perales.

You can convert both. Perales is too small to sustain velo over 5+ innings. He and Susana can be the back end of our bullpen.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Still an open q whether Susana will start.

[Slateman]

If you are going to delay the start of Littell and Gray's seasons, Jake Irvin is making a strong push for being in the OD rotation.

His curveball in particular seems to have much more depth than previous years

[imref]

If you are going to delay the start of Littell and Gray's seasons, Jake Irvin is making a strong push for being in the OD rotation.

His curveball in particular seems to have much more depth than previous years

heck of an outing today. I think he makes it over Lord, so Littell, Mikolas, Irvin, Cavalli, and Griffin

[JCA-CrystalCity]

With Lord in the bullpen

[Slateman]

With Lord in the bullpen

That's another decision they have to make. Do they want to keep Lord as a starter, or make him a reliever?

[GataNats]

Irvin has been amazing

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Irvin has been amazing

Sam Sallick at Federal Baseball points to not really a change in the pitches he throws but a big change in the pitch mix:

If Irvin can throw quality strikes and manipulate the ball effectively, he does not need to throw 95 plus to be effective. We saw that in his start against the Cardinals yesterday. His fastball only averaged 92, but he was so unpredictable that it did not matter. Irvin threw all six of his pitches at least 9% of the time.

Last year, Irvin also technically had six pitches, but he mainly threw a 4-seam, a sinker and a curveball. He threw a changeup 8% of the time and used his cutter and slider 4% each. In his start yesterday, he used the cutter 14% of the time, the changeup at a 12% clip and his slider at a 9% rate.

This new mix has allowed Irvin to get more strikeouts this spring. He only struck out 6.2 batters per 9 innings in 2025. However, he has 15 strikeouts in 13.1 innings so far this spring. Last spring, he only struck out 9 batters in 16.1 innings. That is a very good sign for Irvin.

https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/89474/jake-irvin-making-case-for-final-spot-washington-nationals-rotation

Kind of a move away from the Hickey-dinosaur approach of 50%+ fastballs.

[nobleisthyname]

Lord was a lot better as a reliever last season.

[IanRubbish]

In spite of Gore leaving, looks more promising than last year's rotation which fell apart in the 2nd half.  Team ERA was 29th of 30 last year, I could see them ranking 25th or 26th this year. 

[imref]

Gray optioned

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Gray optioned

Maybe that's a good sign. He looks healthy but needs innings. They could have started him in the majors under limits, but they have enough pitching that it's convenient to do the right thing.

So, Cavalli plus the 3 FAs (Littell, Griffin, Mikolas), and likely Irvin. If Littell isn't ready, there's Lord for now. Gray comes up when he's stretched and there's a need due a fail or injury.

Mikolas gets some leash, as does Irvin.

[imref]

Littell says he'll make one more ST start with the minor league players before joining the team for opening day.

[zimm_da_kid]

Mikolas is trash. Hasn't been good in years. He's a Corbin (lotta innings, doesn't miss starts, terrible results). Griffin I love becasue it's pure upside. Littell has actually been good recently. Mikolas is the one who should get absolutely zero leash

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not sure they needed Mikolas once they signed Litttell. I think he's here due to timing. There are guys in AAA I'd like to see get a shot. Let's hope he's not worse than a mid-4s ERA.

[Slateman]

I'm not sure they needed Mikolas once they signed Litttell. I think he's here due to timing. There are guys in AAA I'd like to see get a shot. Let's hope he's not worse than a mid-4s ERA.

Its pretty obvious that neither the Nationals nor Littell thought Littell was going to sign for so little. I'm betting that if he had to do it over again, Toboni wouldn't have signed Mikolis.