The Rotation (2026)

[imref]

Steve Adams did a MLBTR chat in which he was asked about our opening day starter:

I would imagine their Opening Day starter is whichever veteran they throw a year and $5-10MM at in the next few weeks. They need at least one source of steady innings in there. Tyler Anderson, Tomoyuki Sugano, Jose Quintana, Martin Perez, etc. … someone along those lines.
Mikolas if they really just want bulk innings (which would be defensible)

Our rotation candidates for 2026 right now are: Cavalli, Gray, Williams, Parker, Irvin, Lord, Alvarez, and Griffin with Herz due back at some point. Of that, if we don't sign anyone, i'd imagine Cavalli gets the nod (if healthy).

[IdahoNat]

If no one gets added to the rotation, it may rival 2007 as being the worst ever.

[Slateman]

https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/89082/washington-nationals-jake-irvin-leaking-velocity-first-spring-start

Jake Irvin fired two scoreless innings in his first start of the spring. That should be good news, but the start made me more bearish on the right hander. This is due to his drop in velocity. He only averaged 90.3 MPH on his 4-seam and 91.1 MPH on his sinker. This continues an ongoing trend for Irvin.

[IanRubbish]

Federal Baseball making the claim that Cavalli should be OD starter.  I don't disagree with them, but there's no way he can or should throw 200 innings this year.  150 is the likely ceiling, and is not far off from what a lot of starters these days do.


https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/89274/cade-cavalli-should-be-washington-nationals-opening-day-starter

[tomterp]

OD starter is more symbolic than anything.  It's not like you stack your starters like you would a lineup to get extra starts/plate appearances for your top dogs over the course of a long season. 

[blue911]

OD starter is more symbolic than anything.  It's not like you stack your starters like you would a lineup to get extra starts/plate appearances for your top dogs over the course of a long season.

You’re staining the memory of Odalis Perez.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You’re staining the memory of Odalis Perez.

I have the WaPo picture that they gave out as you were exiting the park.  You can see the ball mid-flight. Was over my desk from 2008-2025 at work. It's a bit yellow and has some rips patched with scotch tape.

[tomterp]

You’re staining the memory of Odalis Perez.

Thanks, I really wanted to remember him.   

I had to look up how he did on OD - he actually got the 3-2 win over the Braves at Nats Park.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Thanks, I really wanted to remember him.   

I had to look up how he did on OD - he actually got the 3-2 win over the Braves at Nats Park.

how's that possible? That was a Zim walkoff. He didn't throw a complete game

[JCA-CrystalCity]

how's that possible? That was a Zim walkoff. He didn't throw a complete game

baseball reference has Rauch as the winner

[blue911]

baseball reference has Rauch as the winner

Wins are overrated 

Tim Hudson started for the Braves. Billy Beane liked Hudson, I wonder if the modern guys would take a chance on him.

[tomterp]

baseball reference has Rauch as the winner

You're right.  Perez left after 5 innings with a 2-1 lead, Rauch blows the save in the 9th but yet gets credited with the win, such are the injustices of the "Win" stat.

[Slateman]

You're right.  Perez left after 5 innings with a 2-1 lead, Rauch blows the save in the 9th but yet gets credited with the win, such are the injustices of the "Win" stat.

The good old vultured win

[Slateman]

Cavalli, Gray, Griffin, and Littell are all locks for the rotation.

So the #5 spot is the only competition. Are we sure Lord is a lock for the rotation? He was significantly better as a reliever last year. He would be in contention for the closer role if he went to the pen.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cavalli, Gray, Griffin, and Littell are all locks for the rotation.

So the #5 spot is the only competition. Are we sure Lord is a lock for the rotation? He was significantly better as a reliever last year. He would be in contention for the closer role if he went to the pen.

Mikolas?

Littell gives them the innings Mikolas was signed for. Maybe he's released?

[imref]

I could see them starting Gray at AAA. Does Irvin have options?

[Slateman]

Mikolas?

crap, forgot about him.


So now I'm wondering if someone is hurt.

Lord, Irvin, and Parker all have options. Triple A is a good place to revamp their deliveries and pitch mixes.

Gotta assume that Griffin will get the most leeway, but that Mikolis and Littell either perform well enough to be dealt at the deadline, or get cut to make room for Lord/Irvin/Parker/Alvarez/Perales

[JCA-CrystalCity]

crap, forgot about him.


So now I'm wondering if someone is hurt.

Lord, Irvin, and Parker all have options. Triple A is a good place to revamp their deliveries and pitch mixes.

Gotta assume that Griffin will get the most leeway, but that Mikolis and Littell either perform well enough to be dealt at the deadline, or get cut to make room for Lord/Irvin/Parker/Alvarez/Perales

do we know for sure it's just a 1 year pillow deal?

[tomterp]

do we know for sure it's just a 1 year pillow deal?

Zuckerman says a 1-year deal.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Zuckerman says a 1-year deal.

makes sense. I think that at the start of the offseason MLBTR predicted Littell to the Nats on a multi-year.

[tomterp]

makes sense. I think that at the start of the offseason MLBTR predicted Littell to the Nats on a multi-year.

Kind of surprised he had to settle for a 1 year deal.  Well, one more guy to sell at the deadline.            

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Mikolas has an interesting structure to his contract. Per Cot's:

1 year/$2.25M (2026)

    signed by Washington as a free agent 2/11/26
    performance bonuses based on innings, games pitched:
        $100,000 each for 100 IP or 30 g, 110 IP or 40 g, 120 IP or 50 g
        $200,000 for 130 IP or 60 g
        $250,000 for 140 IP or 70 g

If he's healthy and takes regular turns, he may earn the first two or three bonuses before the trade deadline, so figure things go right, the Nats are out $1.7 million to that point. If he's dealt, the last 2 months pay and $450-550,000 bonuses, or $1.3 million, would be on the acquiring team. Of course, if he's waived, they are on the hook for at least the base $2.25 million (less I suppose the MLB minimum if someone picks him up). 

[Smithian]

crap, forgot about him.


So now I'm wondering if someone is hurt.

Lord, Irvin, and Parker all have options. Triple A is a good place to revamp their deliveries and pitch mixes.

Gotta assume that Griffin will get the most leeway, but that Mikolis and Littell either perform well enough to be dealt at the deadline, or get cut to make room for Lord/Irvin/Parker/Alvarez/Perales

I think they're starting over with at least Irvin and Parker. Rochester would be better for them.

I think Lord is swing man this season.

Mikolas is cheap so it won't be hard for them to cut ties if someone in Rochester is performing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Likely Littell and maybe Gray will not be ready opening day, but there's a decent chance that none of last year's opening day starters are rotation regulars this year. Littell, Cavalli, Griffin, Mikolas, and Gray could be how they go. Even if Lord makes the rotation, he didn't get his 1st start until his 4th appearance, only started for about a month, then did not move into the rotation full-time until 7/22.

As much as we derided the lack of moves this year then thought the Gore deal was a doomer for the season, the rotation may end up  better than last year. Easy benchmark, of course, but if Littell's results (ERA) are similar to last year, I think the rest of the staff behind him is an upgrade  (maybe excepting Mikolas).

Probably should be in the Sunshine thread.

[Slateman]

I think they're starting over with at least Irvin and Parker. Rochester would be better for them.

I think Lord is swing man this season.

Mikolas is cheap so it won't be hard for them to cut ties if someone in Rochester is performing.

I think Lord would be great as a reliever.