The Weather (2026)

[blue911]

I read

[imref]

What is TikTok saying about the storm.  The weather forecasters were hyping the storm here in Orlando this morning. Not that it will impact us but that they feel bad for you guys in the north. Lol.  Mostly there talking about heavy ice being potentially catastrophic. Whatever that might mean to them. So be thankful if you get lots of snow instead of ice!

im too old for tictok. 😀

CWG  has posted its first guess snowfall map

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/01/22/dc-winter-storm-snow-ice-forecast/

[The Chief]

Do you think the people who live off of the advertising dollars and viewership they get from hyping a storms worst possible case, no matter how slim, are?

Everything is clickbait now, no exceptions.

[imref]

Everything is clickbait now, no exceptions.

except wnff!!

Heard from a neighbor that wegmans is under siege right now.

[blue911]

Everything is clickbait now, no exceptions.

The medium is the message.

[1995hoo]

except wnff!!

Heard from a neighbor that wegmans is under siege right now.

Which Wegmans? I am heading to the one near us later this afternoon. I dread what a zoo it's likely to be, but I also suspect tomorrow and Saturday will be far worse.

[The Chief]

except wnff!!

Can I interest you in making a donation for a cool badge?

[The Chief]

Which Wegmans? I am heading to the one near us later this afternoon. I dread what a zoo it's likely to be, but I also suspect tomorrow and Saturday will be far worse.

The one closest to me was already obviously busier than usual when I went last night, I wouldn't even care to imagine what's it going to be like as 0-hour draws nearer.

[imref]

Which Wegmans? I am heading to the one near us later this afternoon. I dread what a zoo it's likely to be, but I also suspect tomorrow and Saturday will be far worse.

Gainesville was what I heard was swamped, Sterling too.

From posts on Reddit, you probably want to avoid Costco right now too.

[1995hoo]

....

From posts on Reddit, you probably want to avoid Costco right now too.

Heh, well, that's easy because we are not Costco members. We do have a membership at BJ's, but I'm not going to say "I want to avoid BJ's." 

[varoadking]

im too old for tictok. 😀

CWG  has posted its first guess snowfall map

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2026/01/22/dc-winter-storm-snow-ice-forecast/

Quite a bit different than the information in the first post of this thread on Monday...from 17" for Richmond then to 2"-5" now... 

[imref]

Quite a bit different than the information in the first post of this thread on Monday...from 17" for Richmond then to 2"-5" now... 

With about 1/4 to 3/4" of ice for Richmond.

Yes, that's how models almost a week out work.

[varoadking]

With about 1/4 to 3/4" of ice for Richmond.

Yes, that's how models almost a week out work.

Oh yeah...forgot...the ice that was 1"-3" two days ago...

You'd think these "forecasters" would know that these models aren't accurate...they certainly interpret enough of them.  Easier to just claim that the sky is always falling and hope you're right every once in a while, I guess...

What a gig!

[imref]

Oh yeah...forgot...the ice that was 1"-3" two days ago...

You'd think these "forecasters" would know that these models aren't accurate...they certainly interpret enough of them.  Easier to just claim that the sky is always falling and hope you're right every once in a while, I guess...

What a gig!

I'd say that if you are watching/following forecasters that don't note that models 4-6 days out are likely going to change, then you need to watch/follow different forecasters.

[varoadking]

I'd say that if you are watching/following forecasters that don't note that models 4-6 days out are likely going to change, then you need to watch/follow different forecasters.

Like that guy you rely upon last year that swore Richmond was gonna be buried in snow right up until it wasn't?

You'd be better off having a gypsy read your palm than rely on these forecasters...

[imref]

Like that guy you rely upon last year that swore Richmond was gonna be buried in snow right up until it wasn't?

You'd be better off having a gypsy read your palm than rely on these forecasters...

I assume (but am not certain) that you mean DT at wxrisk? Seems like you missed when he speaks in probabilities rather than certainties.

For instance, here's what he posted earlier about Richmond. Highlights mine.

There may be a new trend developing  in Central Virginia Richmond with respect to SATURDAY NIGHT snow.

The new European here at midday on Thursday is actually trending a little colder and has more snow in the initial burst. As a result the European model has actually increased its snow amounts to around 5 INCHES   from 1"  earlier in the Richmond Metro area .

I do not know if this is a trend. it might be so We will just have to wait and see.

in any event there is still absolutely no doubt that this is going over to sleet and freezing rain and all of Central Virginia including the Virginia Piedmont and as far north as Washington DC Culpeper Warrington east of the mountains.  but like I said there may be initial burst of heavier snow in the Richmond Metro area.

Like I said, if you are following folks that speak in absolute certainties you would be wise to follow different folks.

[varoadking]

I assume (but am not certain) that you mean DT at wxrisk? Seems like you missed when he speaks in probabilities rather than certainties.

For instance, here's what he posted earlier about Richmond. Highlights mine.

Like I said, if you are following folks that speak in absolute certainties you would be wise to follow different folks.

Yeah...DT...they guy who blew the Richmond call bigly last year as well.  I certainly won't pay attention to him.

What value can you place on someone who has years of training, that throws out wild projections, and can't speak in even relative certainties until he looks out the window and sees that it's snowing?  Hell, even I can do that...

We did better with forecasts 60 years ago than these cats do these days with all their modern crap.  Maybe that's the problem...we should consult Grannie Clampet's bunion instead of all this fancy software...

[The Chief]

I get all my weather forecasts from the farmer's almanac.

[imref]

Yeah...DT...they guy who blew the Richmond call bigly last year as well.  I certainly won't pay attention to him.

What value can you place on someone who has years of training, that throws out wild projections, and can't speak in even relative certainties until he looks out the window and sees that it's snowing?  Hell, even I can do that...

We did better with forecasts 60 years ago than these cats do these days with all their modern crap.  Maybe that's the problem...we should consult Grannie Clampet's bunion instead of all this fancy software...

If you go back through the 2025 weather thread, you'll see on page 3 that after he issued his last call map for the February storm he noted that a new model run shifted the snow east, specifically "Still there is enough reason to push the 10-in area of snow east of Richmond Metro completely"

Richmond ended up with 5" according to the NWS, with Virginia Beach getting around 11".

Forecasting isn't an exact science, and Wxrisk, like every other forecaster, is wrong from time to time. But he's generally right more often than wrong.

And again, he's pretty clear in nothing that things can and will change.

So my advice to you is the same.

FWIW, I wasn't alive 60 years ago so I can't speak to the accuracy of forecasts then, but I find it hard to believe that forecasts back then were anywhere as close to as accurate as they are now.

[varoadking]

FWIW, I wasn't alive 60 years ago so I can't speak to the accuracy of forecasts then, but I find it hard to believe that forecasts back then were anywhere as close to as accurate as they are now.

Not close...simply better.  Back in an era when we sent men into space with computers less powerful than a Commodore 64...when people actually did the hard work necessary to be accurate rather than create a huge safety net for their postulates...

Just 2 days ago, this weekend was said to be an historic storm event for Virginia and the Carolinas.  I guess we'll see...

[tomterp]

Yeah...DT...they guy who blew the Richmond call bigly last year as well.  I certainly won't pay attention to him.

What value can you place on someone who has years of training, that throws out wild projections, and can't speak in even relative certainties until he looks out the window and sees that it's snowing?  Hell, even I can do that...

We did better with forecasts 60 years ago than these cats do these days with all their modern crap.  Maybe that's the problem...we should consult Grannie Clampet's bunion instead of all this fancy software...

      

Weather forecasting is dramatically better than it was 60 years ago, but it's still a science fraught with uncertainty.

[varoadking]

It's pretty damned cold, but I'd like to see this.  I have been in -27 degree temps in Chicago before, and nary a tree exploded.  Just my luck...

https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fshare%2Fr%2F19nZXGGrK3%2F&data=05%7C02%7C%7Cb4c7552dcdc245190aae08de5a2b45ed%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C639047339055341279%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=ip5BcX7n95j1tcptM9qWJ%2B3xw789x16Fxntx9gySJ1o%3D&reserved=0

[varoadking]

This cat gets it...

https://na01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fshare%2Fr%2F1Ams9PcFD1%2F&data=05%7C02%7C%7C33339a0dbd404dd6542008de5a36bb68%7C84df9e7fe9f640afb435aaaaaaaaaaaa%7C1%7C0%7C639047388286321134%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&sdata=wh9FW9ZorCvwoDdEu8A9gsgisSTiWvzxSxfY34eUONg%3D&reserved=0

[imref]

The projected ice maps from Virginia to Texas out this morning are….something.

[1995hoo]

Which Wegmans? I am heading to the one near us later this afternoon. I dread what a zoo it's likely to be, but I also suspect tomorrow and Saturday will be far worse.

Gainesville was what I heard was swamped, Sterling too.

From posts on Reddit, you probably want to avoid Costco right now too.

So I went to the Wegmans near the corner of Telegraph and Beulah (between Kingstowne and Fort Belvoir) last night, arriving at the store shortly before 5:00. When I got there, I parked somewhat further away than I usually do. As I got out of the car, a man parked nearby came along pushing a shopping cart and I asked him whether I should get a cart from the nearby corral before heading to the store. He said yes and said, "It's apocalyptic in there." It was a good thing I took his advice as to the cart, as there were no carts available at the store entrance (normally there are a few hundred there). But inside, the store wasn't horrible. Not the worst I've seen it by any means. It was crowded, and getting around some of the corners proved difficult (due mainly to idiots who stopped in the middle of the aisles or directly across from other people so nobody could get through), but the store wasn't totally cleaned out. Some things were gone—no lettuce, no potatoes, no onions, and no shredded cheese. But there was surprisingly plenty of ground beef and most other meat (though I had to ask the butcher if he had any more stew meat—he did). Ample supply of beer and wine (I needed Guinness for the beef stew recipe). The only things on my list that I wasn't able to get were onions and potatoes, so I may send Ms1995hoo to Giant or Safeway today, or perhaps to Nalls Produce. I should note that I didn't look to see whether the TP aisle was demolished because I use a bidet seat and Ms1995hoo (who seems not to like the bidet even though she admits it does a very good job of cleaning you) bought TP at BJ's a week or two ago anyway.

I have to think tonight will be considerably worse at the stores and that tomorrow will be "apocalyptic." If you need to go and can do so during the day today, that's probably the better option. EDITED TO ADD: Although it may not matter. I just saw this on Twitter: https://x.com/juanjohnjedi/status/2014693498704765235?s=20