The Weather (2026)

[imref]

not much of  a convergence if it is 8"-18."

it'll get narrower as we get closer, but we're past the point of any model not indicating substantial accumulation.

CWG's latest at cwg.live

Computer models have come into relatively strong agreement that at least 6 inches is likely and that parts of the region could near or even surpass a foot. But with the storm still four to five days into the future, uncertainties remain. There is an increasing chance that snow could mix with and change to sleet and/or freezing rain for a time Sunday, lowering the ceiling on snow totals, especially south and east of D.C. There is also a possibility that the push of Arctic air suppresses the storm to the south, resulting in little snow — although the likelihood of that scenario is diminishing.

Based on the latest information, we would assign the following odds for different snowfall amounts in the D.C. area:
At least 1 inch: 80 percent.
At least 4 inches: 70 percent.
At least 6 inches: 60 percent.
At least 8 inches: 50 percent.
At least 12 inches: 35 percent.

“Confidence of a significant winter storm across the region remains high Saturday into Sunday, but confidence in exact amounts of snow versus ice is lower especially south and east,” the National Weather Service office serving the region wrote Wednesday.

[The Chief]

not much of  a convergence if it is 8"-18."

Nats will win between 50 and 150 games this year.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nats will win between 50 and 150 games this year.

50-112 is more credible than 150-12 

[dracnal]

50-112 is more credible than 150-12 

To be fair, that's true for 100% of the teams.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

To be fair, that's true for 100% of the teams.

dodgers?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Euro now calling for much more sleet than other models.

[varoadking]

not much of  a convergence if it is 8"-18."

I'm convinced that every weather "forecaster" is the great-grandchild of a snake oil salesman...

[wj73]

I'm convinced that every weather "forecaster" is the great-grandchild of a snake oil salesman...

Before I met Mr wj73, I dated a meteorologist. Believe me, they lie.

[imref]

Euro now calling for much more sleet than other models.

Yeah, latest runs are bringing snow totals down to 8" or so and adding ice on top of it. 

I find that a lot of folks who are critical of forecasters struggle to understand that models a week out can predict the likelihood of a big storm but won't predict specifics until around 48 hours out.

here's the latest model runs from CWG:

UKMet: 12 to 13 inches.
American model: 10 to 11 inches (primary simulation) | 9 to 10 inches (system average).
European AI model: 10 to 11 inches (primary simulation) | 16 inches (system average).
European model: 7 to 9 inches (primary simulation) | 10 to 11 inches (system average).
American AI model: 11 to 12 inches (primary simulation) | 12 to 13 inches (system average).
Canadian model: 9 to 10 inches
German model: 5 to 6 inches

[varoadking]

Before I met Mr wj73, I dated a meteorologist. Believe me, they lie

 

[varoadking]

Yeah, latest runs are bringing snow totals down to 8" or so and adding ice on top of it. 

I find that a lot of folks who are critical of forecasters struggle to understand that models a week out can predict the likelihood of a big storm but won't predict specifics until around 48 hours out.

here's the latest model runs from CWG:

Then don't predict specifics before 48 hours out...it makes them look desperate for attention...

[imref]

Then don't predict specifics before 48 hours out...it makes them look desperate for attention...

I don't think software code is programmed to care about attention.

[Natsinpwc]

It's a big storm.  Will bring lots of stuff to lots of people.  Not bad to have people prepare for the worst case.  Not unlike hurricanes.  Which they also don't know where they might go until a couple days out.  I hope you enjoy the weather up there.  Hope you stocked up on toilet paper and alcohol. 

[1995hoo]

I don’t use toilet paper, so I will forego that part of the so-called "BMTP trip" ("bread, milk, and toilet paper").

[blue911]

I don’t use toilet paper, so I will forego that part of the so-called "BMTP trip" ("bread, milk, and toilet paper").

Bidet all the way

[1995hoo]

Bidet all the way

Exactly. Heated seat, heated water, heated air-dry.

[imref]

Exactly. Heated seat, heated water, heated air-dry.

i bought a plain old non-electric one during the pandemic and still haven't installed it.

Just saw the latest update from Doug Kammerer. He is saying ~10" for most of the region then switching over to ice. Seems like ice is now the bigger worry than the snow for most of the region, especially with freezing temps following Sunday.

Latest from wxrisk:
https://medium.com/@wxrisk/vas-shrinking-snowstorm-now-and-major-ice-storm-threat-c01e9b48de6a

As you probably heard from numerous sources at this point -besides myself — everybody in Virginia should prepare for a prolonged and potentially historic ice storm unless you are in Hampton Roads or far Southwest Virginia WEST of I- 77. Extreme Arctic air is going to arrive Monday night behind the storm followed by another Arctic blast on Thursday and Friday.

These temperatures are truly brutal given the power outages and infrastructure disaster which may be facing all of the Mid-Atlantic region. I cannot urge you too strongly to take all necessary precautions for you and your family close friends important relatives.

There will be no school for at least a week and businesses and hospitals roads airports will all be severely affected.

Many areas in the I-95 corridor from Richmond to NYC have an excellent chance of dropping to 0 at any time during the pre-dawn hours from Tuesday through Friday morning.

Sub-freezing temps coupled with power outages are a recipe for frozen pipes.

[dracnal]

Euro now calling for much more sleet than other models.

I'm a believer in the old 'You win 40, you lose 40 - it's what you do with the other 82 that matters' rule. There's zero chance any team ever loses only 12 games in a 162 game season. The arm falling off three starting pitchers, however... that's entirely possible for the Dodgers.

[imref]

CWG's latest:

We’re getting a lot of questions about when things go downhill. Here’s our current thinking for the D.C. area (timing may shift a bit as we refine):
🕓 4–10 p.m. Saturday
Light snow develops from SW → NE
Temps: 16–20°
🌙 10 p.m. Sat – 4 a.m. Sun
Snow spreads and intensifies
Accumulation begins quickly once steady
Temps: 16–20°
⏰ 4–10 a.m. Sunday (worst window)
Heavy snow at times, rapid accumulation
Snow may begin mixing with sleet/freezing rain, mainly south & east of the Beltway
Temps: 15–20°
🕙 10 a.m. – 4 p.m. Sunday
North & west: mostly snow, some mixing possible
Near the Beltway: snow + sleet + freezing rain
South & east: mainly sleet and freezing rain
Temps: 18–24°
🌆 4–10 p.m. Sunday
Mixed precip gradually tapers SW → NE
Temps: 20–25°
🌙 Late Sunday night – early Monday
Lingering mixed precip or freezing drizzle possible
Temps: 17–22°
⚠️ Bottom line:
We expect the worst travel conditions predawn through mid-morning Sunday, but with bitter cold, untreated roads will stay treacherous long after the heaviest snow ends.

[dracnal]

I don't think software code is programmed to care about attention.

Do you think the people who live off of the advertising dollars and viewership they get from hyping a storms worst possible case, no matter how slim, are?

[1995hoo]

i bought a plain old non-electric one during the pandemic and still haven't installed it.

....

I would suggest that at this point you may as well wait until the weather is warmer. Why? If it's non-electric, presumably it has no way to deliver hot or warm water.* Consider what the water feels like in the middle of winter if you turn your faucet to the coldest position and then try to run your hands under that water for 30 seconds. That same temperature water is what the non-electric bidet would be using to wash your buttcrack. And next week the overnight low temperatures are forecast to be in the single digits for most of the week, so the cold water is going to be pretty cold.

*There are some non-electric bidets that can be connected to the hot water line under the sink if there is a sink next to the toilet. In that case, unless you're in the bathroom closest to your water heater, you'd need to run the hot water for a while while you're sitting on the toilet in order to get the hot water flowing. Consider how when you turn on the faucet it usually takes a little while to get warm water. The same would be true using a bidet seat that's connected to the hot water line.

[imref]

Do you think the people who live off of the advertising dollars and viewership they get from hyping a storms worst possible case, no matter how slim, are?

I think those who falsely hype storms end up losing viewership and advertising dollars. The WXRisk guy takes a lot of crap, but his entire income stream is based on selling forecasting services and he's right far more than he's wrong.

[dracnal]

I think those who falsely hype storms end up losing viewership and advertising dollars. The WXRisk guy takes a lot of crap, but his entire income stream is based on selling forecasting services and he's right far more than he's wrong.

I'm sure there are some people who become jaded and stop trusting forecasters when storms get overhyped. Oh, hi VaRK!

However, I also think Barnum was correct and thanks to super shiny flashy graphics and people with the memory retention of bread mold, overhyping will still get bigger draws and bigger crowds and bigger noise and more eyes. I'm sure the WXRisk guy isn't the one on camera cutting 5 second teasers about the update to the storm that will get aired in heavy rotation non-stop for days ahead of the storm. And I don't think it's his fault that people do that since he's just providing the best model he can. But pretending that there isn't a significant amount of money made from overhyping the tiniest potential worst case from a prediction model and abusing the statistical analysis to create sensationalism is certainly a choice.

I strongly doubt the weather skeptics like VaRK and myself are that way because of the WXRisk guy - we're that way because of the people who take the model and spin it out of proportion and generate an insane amount of hype. At what percent confidence that there's a possibility of a 24" snow depositing storm seven days out end up getting broadcast? I'm sure that there is a cutoff number. And I'm sure that all the stations have one that they use. However, they also have 'unless our competitors are already hyping it' as a lower bound. So it boils down to who is the first to start talking about a 5% chance of the storm of the century as being a thing before suddenly everyone is and then it scales down to 'oh it's going to be smaller than the model suggested.'

Numbers and statistics don't lie, but they also don't tell a story and don't create a narrative, and don't produce any hype. It's the people who get that data who do and THAT is the problem. Not the software model having aspirations that people will think it's the cool kid because it was programmed to be a hype machine.

[imref]

I'm sure there are some people who become jaded and stop trusting forecasters when storms get overhyped. Oh, hi VaRK!

However, I also think Barnum was correct and thanks to super shiny flashy graphics and people with the memory retention of bread mold, overhyping will still get bigger draws and bigger crowds and bigger noise and more eyes. I'm sure the WXRisk guy isn't the one on camera cutting 5 second teasers about the update to the storm that will get aired in heavy rotation non-stop for days ahead of the storm. And I don't think it's his fault that people do that since he's just providing the best model he can. But pretending that there isn't a significant amount of money made from overhyping the tiniest potential worst case from a prediction model and abusing the statistical analysis to create sensationalism is certainly a choice.

I strongly doubt the weather skeptics like VaRK and myself are that way because of the WXRisk guy - we're that way because of the people who take the model and spin it out of proportion and generate an insane amount of hype. At what percent confidence that there's a possibility of a 24" snow depositing storm seven days out end up getting broadcast? I'm sure that there is a cutoff number. And I'm sure that all the stations have one that they use. However, they also have 'unless our competitors are already hyping it' as a lower bound. So it boils down to who is the first to start talking about a 5% chance of the storm of the century as being a thing before suddenly everyone is and then it scales down to 'oh it's going to be smaller than the model suggested.'

Numbers and statistics don't lie, but they also don't tell a story and don't create a narrative, and don't produce any hype. It's the people who get that data who do and THAT is the problem. Not the software model having aspirations that people will think it's the cool kid because it was programmed to be a hype machine.

What you describe is true of just about anything in the era of 24 hour news channels fighting for viewership with each other, and with tiktok (where most of the under 30 crowd now gets their info).

[Natsinpwc]

What you describe is true of just about anything in the era of 24 hour news channels fighting for viewership with each other, and with tiktok (where most of the under 30 crowd now gets their info).

What is TikTok saying about the storm.  The weather forecasters were hyping the storm here in Orlando this morning. Not that it will impact us but that they feel bad for you guys in the north. Lol.  Mostly there talking about heavy ice being potentially catastrophic. Whatever that might mean to them. So be thankful if you get lots of snow instead of ice!