The Weather (2026)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm struggling with the fact that you have 5" of solid ice on the road in your cul-de-sac...

maybe you didn't hear, but there was a big ice storm over a lot of snow this weekend. the weather forecasters warned this would  happen and ended up pretty spot on in their calls. You should try listening to forecasters. They sometimes help.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I got a pic from the neighbor in beautiful PWC. He said the snow plow came and gave up after a few feet.  It looks like packed snow. Be careful out there folks.

actually, similar in Crystal City along Eads. Plow tried to clear the bike lane yesterday ( ) and gave up about  20 feet past the Marriott driveway. About the only clear street corner for pedestrians is outside HQ2.

I still made it to Dunkin's. A man has to have his priorities.

[imref]

my biggest concern out there now would be sheets of ice flying off of uncleared cars.

Scenes out of Tennessee, where they got a big ice storm, are awful. This is from Perry County. Similar scenes in other places including Northern Mississippi.

[imref]

CWG:

The frigid morning was part of a punishing cold snap that ramped up Saturday and may not relax until around Groundhog Day on Feb. 2. By some measures, it could rank among the most severe cold spells since the late 1800s.

The deep freeze helped set the stage for Sunday’s winter storm, and its persistence ensures the hefty snow and ice that fell will linger as thick cement-like slabs for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

The cold is now beginning to transform local waterways. Portions of the Potomac River are already icing over, and continued freezing could lead to unusual ice cover on parts of the Chesapeake Bay — a rare sight that last occurred in notable fashion in January 2018 and February 2015

[tomterp]

You have to wonder if the millions of gallons of raw sewage flowing daily into the Potomac alters the freezing point?

Story I always heard growing up, once upon a time there was no Wilson Bridge.  My great grandfather took advantage of a hard freeze in the Potomac to walk over to Old Town from Oxon Hill.  Guess that could have been 1918.

[blue911]

CWG:

Chesapeake Bay froze so hard in 76-77 that you could walk across from Annapolis to Kent Island.

[1995hoo]

This is the Potomac in 1977 with the 14th Street Bridge complex in the background.

Edited to link the photo instead. Sorry about that. I had no idea it was going to display as such a large picture. It didn't do that on the other forum where I linked it.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/files/2018/01/1977-potomac.jpg

[imref]

CWG's latest on this weekend:

The update for today is that the most reliable model data continues to keep the storm too far south and east for snow in the D.C. area. However, it’s still close enough that we are not yet a lock for no snow, and snow odds remain a little higher for the Eastern Shore.

In fact, the latest run of the American (GFS) model brought the storm close enough to give the D.C. region several or more inches of snow late Saturday into Sunday, but at this time range that model has been wrong more often than not with the track of storm systems this winter.

So where we stand is that, if anything, the chance of snow here has decreased a bit since yesterday (which was already not too high of a chance) given that we’re one day closer and most models still push the storm off to our south and east. To illustrate, the European model gives most of the D.C. area a less than 10 percent chance of at least 1 inch of snow this weekend (see image below).

Still, this is only Tuesday and we’re talking about Saturday-Sunday. That’s far enough way, and with just enough model data keeping the storm close, that we can’t yet write it off completely.

[varoadking]

Our local weather guy is sick of hyperbolic storm projections...

https://www.facebook.com/share/v/16iPrKxQLg/

Can't say that I blame him...

[imref]

I'm struggling with the fact that you have 5" of solid ice on the road in your cul-de-sac...

Jim Duncan:

Yep, it’s a solid slab of ice out there on the ground. It’s hazardous even to walk outside on uncleared areas. I frankly thought it was better yesterday when at least there was a little “give“ to the surface consistency. This reminds me of a similar storm aftermath in January some several decades ago (don’t recall year), with painfully slow melting. I hate this cliché expression, “hunker down“, but it seems to fit the moment.

[Dave in Fairfax]

I have to drive to the VA hospital in DC tomorrow. Not looking forward to it.

[The Chief]

Can you punch through the top layer with a hammer?

[The Chief]

I have to drive to the VA hospital in DC tomorrow. Not looking forward to it.

 

Kidding, of course.  Good luck.

[imref]

I have to drive to the VA hospital in DC tomorrow. Not looking forward to it.

Main roads seem ok. Good luck. 

[imref]

Big model shift overnight. Sigh....

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Big model shift overnight. Sigh....

If I'm looking at this  right, the Euro model still doesn't have the snow reaching DC Saturday night into Sunday morning. Charles, St Mary's, Stafford get some.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026012800&fh=90&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

[tomterp]

Euro model shows lowest impact.  Consensus model would have 4-8" up and down the 95 corridor, much more along the coastlines, particularly the Outer Banks and Cape Cod.  One outlier model has 25-30" as far in as DC.  All these models are trying to predict the center path of the storm, which is still in the Gulf and has to cross over Florida before turning north so very hard to read at present.  "Max Velocity" talks about the different models in a bit of depth.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Euro model shows lowest impact.  Consensus model would have 4-8" up and down the 95 corridor, much more along the coastlines, particularly the Outer Banks and Cape Cod.  One outlier model has 25-30" as far in as DC.  All these models are trying to predict the center path of the storm, which is still in the Gulf and has to cross over Florida before turning north so very hard to read at present.  "Max Velocity" talks about the different models in a bit of depth.

Yes, the Euro has been the outlier and is shifting towards the other models. It's had the better track record than the others this winter, so it's interesting that it is the one that's moving.

[imref]

If I'm looking at this  right, the Euro model still doesn't have the snow reaching DC Saturday night into Sunday morning. Charles, St Mary's, Stafford get some.
https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=prateptype_cat_ecmwf-imp&rh=2026012800&fh=90&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc=

this was the Euro run from about 8 hours ago, so yeah, still keeping snow away from DC.

[Natsinpwc]

I knew the bomb would finally come. Get under your desk kids.

[varoadking]

Jim Duncan:

Jim needs to check his own hyperbole...

[varoadking]

I knew the bomb would finally come. Get under your desk kids.

These are just models...otherwise known as a fact in their own mind...

[blue911]

During the last storm we received the weather that was forecasted on the preceding Friday. However 15 miles south had half the snow and were hammered by freezing rain. 15 miles north was the opposite, twice the snow with less freezing rain.

[The Chief]

Can you punch through the top layer with a hammer?

This wasn't rhetorical btw, I'm genuinely curious.  Like VaRK I am skeptical that there is actually 5" of solid ice on the ground anywhere in the region, but I'm always game for seeing cool weather anomalies.  It's maybe an inch of ice tops here on top of a bunch of fluffy snow/compacted sleet.  More of a crust, but it still easily carries the family as well as myself (though I do partially sink through at times)

[imref]

This wasn't rhetorical btw, I'm genuinely curious.  Like VaRK I am skeptical that there is actually 5" of solid ice on the ground anywhere in the region, but I'm always game for seeing cool weather anomalies.  It's maybe an inch of ice tops here on top of a bunch of fluffy snow/compacted sleet.  More of a crust, but it still easily carries the family as well as myself (though I do partially sink through at times)

We had maybe an inch of ice on our front porch that came down after I shoveled on Sunday. After most of the porch being in the sun all morning yesterday, my son was able to break most of it up with a hammer. The area that had been in the shade was too solid to break up.