The Weather (2026)

[The Chief]

You two play nice.

But I had to laugh a little reading that as it reads sort of like "SEE!  It was still a historic storm, just not the way we predicted!"

I'm teasing, not taking sides 

[1995hoo]

Latest Euro runs still show a monster nor'easter this weekend hitting from Virginia up into New England, GFS keeps it out to sea.  Google's AI model aligns with the Euro.

The other night, Doug Kammerer mentioned that possibility. Eun Yang immediately stuck her fingers in her ears.

[imref]

You two play nice.

But I had to laugh a little reading that as it reads sort of like "SEE!  It was still a historic storm, just not the way we predicted!"

I'm teasing, not taking sides 

I'm still not understanding this. The storm was largely in-line with what was predicted. Folks who took models from a week out as predictions don't seem to understand how models work.

The Wxrisk guy posted a discussion of models for this upcoming weekend with the disclaimer "This is a NOT A Forecast.  This is a  post about a POSSIBLE  THREAT.  If you believe or think that the term "possible threat"  = an actual  forecast then we have a problem because some people still struggle with this concept."

[The Chief]

I don't think there's a low enough effort way to explain this that corresponds to my own personal investment in the discussion, so I'm just going to leave it at my one joke and go back to passive observation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The long range forecast is a bit like telling a merchant mariner during WWII "you might encounter U-boats on your way across the Atlantic." Reasonable warning about the worst case.

[The Chief]

The long range forecast is a bit like telling a merchant mariner during WWII "you might encounter U-boats on your way across the Atlantic." Reasonable warning about the worst case.

"possible side effects include death"

[Natsinpwc]

84 Orlando. Just sayin.

Welp will be in the 30s next few mornings. 

And for the record Orlando is The City Beautiful.

[varoadking]

The long range forecast is a bit like telling a merchant mariner during WWII "you might encounter U-boats on your way across the Atlantic." Reasonable warning about the worst case.

Not sure that's an apropos analogy, but I will give you points for trying... 

[varoadking]

Well...now that The Storm of the Millennium has passed, I guess we can go back to discussing what a bust Dylan Crews is...

[imref]

3 degrees this AM

[1995hoo]

My phone shows that the temperature is 9° but it feels like 14°. A heat index in January!

Meanwhile, my lower back is not happy with me after two and a half to three hours (in two sessions) of clearing snow yesterday. Bashing through the layer of ice caused by the sleet is miserable. I haven't even tried to tackle the mound the plow left at the foot of the driveway. I have a gas can in the garage and I kind of have the urge to dump the gas all over the snow down there and then throw a match on it, but that doesn't seem like a very wise idea and has a bit of a "Hold my beer and watch this" feel to it.

[tomterp]

My phone shows that the temperature is 9° but it feels like 14°. A heat index in January!

Meanwhile, my lower back is not happy with me after two and a half to three hours (in two sessions) of clearing snow yesterday. Bashing through the layer of ice caused by the sleet is miserable. I haven't even tried to tackle the mound the plow left at the foot of the driveway. I have a gas can in the garage and I kind of have the urge to dump the gas all over the snow down there and then throw a match on it, but that doesn't seem like a very wise idea and has a bit of a "Hold my beer and watch this" feel to it.

We utilized a combination of tools - one to break up the 3-4" of sleet crust on top, then conventional snow shovels to move it off.  One of the breaking tools is a "Rogue Hoe", a tool I use in trail maintenance.   An ordinary hoe would also work to penetrate the crust, break it up into manageable size chunks.  Yes, this stuff was all very heavy - the crust and the underneath both had real weight.  Generally, once we had a load of snow on a snow shovel, we'd drag it (super easy) on the ground to a place where it could be dispatched downhill without even lifting the shovel.  We have a culvert under the end of our driveway which worked perfectly for this.  Sure, plenty of times I/we had to lift the shovel but fewer is better.

[imref]

We finally had a plow visit our street (I live on a cul-de-sac) just now. He briefly tried to plow the 5" of solid ice and gave up so instead he spread salt (which I don't think even does anything at these temps) and left. Folks are able to get out by just driving on the ice. It is so solid that cars aren't sinking into it.

[imref]

My phone shows that the temperature is 9° but it feels like 14°. A heat index in January!

Meanwhile, my lower back is not happy with me after two and a half to three hours (in two sessions) of clearing snow yesterday. Bashing through the layer of ice caused by the sleet is miserable. I haven't even tried to tackle the mound the plow left at the foot of the driveway. I have a gas can in the garage and I kind of have the urge to dump the gas all over the snow down there and then throw a match on it, but that doesn't seem like a very wise idea and has a bit of a "Hold my beer and watch this" feel to it.

Please do share video.

We utilized a combination of tools - one to break up the 3-4" of sleet crust on top, then conventional snow shovels to move it off.  One of the breaking tools is a "Rogue Hoe", a tool I use in trail maintenance.   

Jokes are writing themselves at the moment.....

[varoadking]

...5" of solid ice...

Please do share a video...

[imref]

latest GFS and Euro both show snowfall from this upcoming weekend's storm largely bombing out and dropping around a foot of snow on eastern NC, centered over Raleigh, then heading out to sea.

Note for those still struggling with this concept: This is not a forecast, but rather just a current model run.

[Natsinpwc]

Is it ice? Is it packed snow?  Who knows. Sounds darn hard to plow or shovel.

[varoadking]

latest GFS and Euro both show snowfall from this upcoming weekend's storm largely bombing out and dropping around a foot of snow on eastern NC, centered over Raleigh, then heading out to sea.

Note for those still struggling with this concept: This is not a forecast, but rather just a current model run.

I'm struggling with the fact that you have 5" of solid ice on the road in your cul-de-sac...

[imref]

Is it ice? Is it packed snow?  Who knows. Sounds darn hard to plow or shovel.

5" of hard packed white stuff that people are driving on, especially after yesterday's mild melt from the sun and refreeze. I'm pretty sure that snow is a form of ice, but I might be wrong.

here's a pick from near Nats park earlier today, resembles what we have on our street:

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

I had a very interesting flight from Brussels into IAD late yesterday afternoon...a 777-200 driving around for an hour and a half trying to find a clear parking spot was a new one, just like home 

[varoadking]

5" of hard packed white stuff that people are driving on, especially after yesterday's mild melt from the sun and refreeze. I'm pretty sure that snow is a form of ice, but I might be wrong.

here's a pick from near Nats park earlier today, resembles what we have on our street:

So not actually solid ice?  Thanks...that makes much more sense...

[Natsinpwc]

I got a pic from the neighbor in beautiful PWC. He said the snow plow came and gave up after a few feet.  It looks like packed snow. Be careful out there folks.

[Natsinpwc]

Now this was ice.  And after hiking on it for a couple hours they served us whiskey over the glacier ice. Don’t try that with the ice out there in the DMV.

https://peritomorenoglacier.com/information/perito-moreno-glacier/

[nats2playoffs]

Has anyone tried driving on icy roads or side streets?

Someone is going to need a ride to Towson University, which is closed Tuesday January 27, 2026. I don't want my car totaled in a wreck, or wheels spinning, unable to move.
 

[imref]

Has anyone tried driving on icy roads or side streets?

Someone is going to need a ride to Towson University, which is closed Tuesday January 27, 2026. I don't want my car totaled in a wreck, or wheels spinning, unable to move.
 

My son got out this morning in his Subaru without issues.