Fire Blake Butera!

[JCA-CrystalCity]

My choice would have been Littell after the first guy reached base in the second. Should not trust Palmquist. Yank him at the first sign of trouble, rather than plow ahead as planned.

makes sense. I was surprised Palmquist came out for more the 2nd inning.

[GataNats]

My choice would have been Littell after the first guy reached base in the second. Should not trust Palmquist. Yank him at the first sign of trouble, rather than plow ahead as planned.

Littell hasn’t earned an ounce of trust, though. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Butera has a jack high hand. No good in poker, no good in bridge

[imref]

Federal baseball:

"Blake Butera said he did Cole Henry “a disservice” last night. Mentioned that they will prepare these relievers more for multi-inning appearances in the minors. Henry did not throw more than [one] inning at all in his most recent MiLB stints."

[Slateman]

https://natsjournal.com/p/game-93-astros-at-nats?open=false#%C2%A7butera-takes-responsibility-for-henrys-outing

"Look, I will 100 percent wear Cole Henry’s poor second inning last night,” Butera said. “To be very transparent and truthful, I think we did Cole a disservice because we didn’t have him throw multiple innings at Triple-A. But a lot of times when we bring a player up from Triple-A, it’s because our bullpen’s thin and we’re going to need them to throw multiple innings. We’ve seen it with Cole Henry, we’ve seen it with Zak Kent, we’ve seen it with Paxton Schultz. Pretty much every guy we’ve brought up from Triple-A, they’re not here to throw one inning. They’re coming up because we need coverage.”

That's pretty terrible. Like, yea, he should get some blame, but Henry was down there for a while. There was more than enough time to get him a couple multi-inning stints

[aspenbubba]

https://natsjournal.com/p/game-93-astros-at-nats?open=false#%C2%A7butera-takes-responsibility-for-henrys-outing

That's pretty terrible. Like, yea, he should get some blame, but Henry was down there for a while. There was more than enough time to get him a couple multi-inning stints

I am sure the directive from Toboni was to have select relievers throw one inning only.

[English Natsie]

What was Blake Butera doing? What was he watching? Who was he pitching?... (or am I being overly harsh?...).

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://natsjournal.com/p/game-93-astros-at-nats?open=false#%C2%A7butera-takes-responsibility-for-henrys-outing

That's pretty terrible. Like, yea, he should get some blame, but Henry was down there for a while. There was more than enough time to get him a couple multi-inning stints

he either doesn't know Henry's arm history or he's in an FU mode about his health. Henry is the last guy you want to throw multiple innings. LeCroy probably understood that to be the case. Yes, I get that the staff is structured to have optionable multi-inning guys to pitch with big leads or when behind early, but that's not been Henry's  profile since the TOS. Maybe it's on Toboni for calling him up rather than on of the other relievers capable of multiple  innings.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Probably useful to track the minor league pitchers who are on the roster and eligible for call up as well as the date guys become eligible for call up if they've been sent down.

Perales - eligible (5 IP on 7/4)
Nicolas - eligible (0.2 IP on 7/4)
Schultz - sent down 6/24, eligible, 7/9
Varland - sent down 6/26, eligible 7/11
Kent - sent down 7/5, eligible 7/20
Yean - sent down 7/6, eligible 7/21
Henry - sent down down 7/7, eligible 7/22

Poking around the handling of Henry on 7/6, I guess that the only other option for a call up 7/4 on the 40 man roster was Nicolas, who had just joined the organization and had been hit a bit on 7/4.  In the game, I think the choice for Butera ended up being sending Henry out for a second inning, throwing Poulin or Ribalta on consecutive days in a super low leverage inning, or going to  Cornelio or Palmquist after they had thrown 37 pitches on 7/4. Lousy choices.

[welch]

Poking around the handling of Henry on 7/6, I guess that the only other option for a call up 7/4 on the 40 man roster was Nicolas, who had just joined the organization and had been hit a bit on 7/4.  In the game, I think the choice for Butera ended up being sending Henry out for a second inning, throwing Poulin or Ribalta on consecutive days in a super low leverage inning, or going to  Cornelio or Palmquist after they had thrown 37 pitches on 7/4. Lousy choices.

Pitch Poulin, save Ribalta and Beeter for danger. And keep Henry as a one-inning reliever.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Pitch Poulin, save Ribalta and Beeter for danger. And keep Henry as a one-inning reliever.

2 innings to cover. Poulin isn't great multi-innings too, but he's done it and Henry  hasn't. My guess is he tried Henry for 2 and, if it worked, Poulin for the 9th. I like your thinking. Too bad none of us said it at the time. Bullpen management is hard.

[welch]

Butera has done it again: pulls Beeter for Krook in the 9th and a loss. Maybe lefty-lefty matchups win over a 162 game season, but only if the relief pitchers are about even. If one is Beeter, the Nats' best, and the other is Krook, likely the worst, then it is illogical to pitch Krook in the 9th with a 1-run lead. Butera works his bullpen as if he plans everything the night before, and never deviates from the plan.

[imref]

Butera has done it again: pulls Beeter for Krook in the 9th and a loss. Maybe lefty-lefty matchups win over a 162 game season, but only if the relief pitchers are about even. If one is Beeter, the Nats' best, and the other is Krook, likely the worst, then it is illogical to pitch Krook in the 9th with a 1-run lead. Butera works his bullpen as if he plans everything the night before, and never deviates from the plan.

Career splits vs LHB:
Beeter: .198 / .368 / .341
Krook: .250 / .400 / .625

I'd love for Zuck, Nussbaum, or any other reporter to ask Butera what exactly were the analytics that suggested going to Krook was the right move?

[varoadking]

Career splits vs LHB:
Beeter: .198 / .368 / .341
Krook: .250 / .400 / .625

I'd love for Zuck, Nussbaum, or any other reporter to ask Butera what exactly were the analytics that suggested going to Krook was the right move?

https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-fall-to-yankees-on-9th-inning-home-runs?msockid=224895a5cf326efb147f82a3cb326a5b

Manager Blake Butera called on left-hander Matt Krook to face lefty-handed batter Cody Bellinger, switch-hitter Jasson Domínguez and lefty-hitting Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the ninth.

Making his seventh appearance of the season and second since being acquired from the Athletics, Krook retired Bellinger. Domínguez singled to left on a 2-2 pitch and Chisholm homered into the second deck off a 1-1 sweeper.

“The main reason is just because of what was coming up,” Butera said of the move to Krook. “Especially with Domínguez and Chisholm much better against right-handers.”

“Krook was slightly better against Domínguez,” Butera explained. “He’s slightly better against righties than PJ is. So that was the thought, just with Domínguez there in the middle of those three.”

“Historically, [Chisholm] is a lot better against righties than he is lefties, and then he hits a home run against us and you’re sitting here wondering if that was the right thing to do,” Butera said.

[imref]

https://www.mlb.com/news/nationals-fall-to-yankees-on-9th-inning-home-runs?msockid=224895a5cf326efb147f82a3cb326a5b

“Krook was slightly better against Domínguez,” Butera explained. “He’s slightly better against righties than PJ is. So that was the thought, just with Domínguez there in the middle of those three.”

Career splits vs RHB:
Beeter: .141 / .246 / .212
Krook: .472 / .565 / .694

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Career splits vs RHB:
Beeter: .141 / .246 / .212
Krook: .472 / .565 / .694

well that's  not what  he said. IT was Krook vs Poulin for Dominguez. Butera didn't like Beeter vs the 2 lefty and a switch stretch.

Beeter would have faced 3 lefties in a row b/c Dominguez is a switch hitter. I still might have gone with Beeter simply because he was in the game already. I'd have looked at Dominguez as a righty vs LHP and compared that to him vs a RHP when hitting lefty. I lean towards letting Beeter start the inning. 2d option After that, I still lean towards Poulin with 2 lefties and take my chance against him with Dominguez. I can always pull Poulin after Chisholm and got  to Ribalta if  there's a mess.

By the way, this isn't about "analytics" as SSB points out  in the game day thread. Matching up lefty / lefty is a move managers have been making since after the Figners / Gossage stretch of relievers. You have a dominant closer, they go against anybody. Otherwise, lesser guys you do matchups for 30-40 years. Analytics, as SSB points out, would look at things like types of pitches a guy does well against and other factors and might lead to go with leaving a righty in if he has an unusual advantage.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

IF you like the smell of a manager roasted, then Sam Sallick's piece  at Federal Baseball might be your thing:
https://www.federalbaseball.com/washington-nationals-analysis/92577/blake-butera-washington-nationals-overly-dogmatic-when-comes-platoon-matchups

I am not really sure what book Blake Butera is going off of right now, but there needs to be some serious reflection after last night. Butera needs to start trusting his best relievers instead of turning to guys based on what hand they throw with. Moving forward, Butera cannot be pulling his best reliever for a guy with an ERA in the double digits in the 9th inning.

After the game, Butera explained his decision by saying he brought in Krook because of the three lefties/switch hitters that were up. He told me that he went with Krook over the more reliable PJ Poulin because he liked how Krook matched up with the switch hitting Jasson Dominguez. Krook ended up allowing a single to Dominguez and a homer to Jazz Chisholm who is worse against left-handed pitching.
...
There have been plenty of times where you can’t really blame Butera for this bad bullpen melting down. However, last night was not one of those cases. It felt like we had the Yankees right where we wanted them after Clayton Beeter got a strikeout to end the 8th. Beeter, who has not allowed a run in his last 7 outings, would come out for the 9th, and the fans would be happy.

Butera had other plans though. He wanted to play the matchups instead of sticking with his best arm. It is not like Beeter has a problem against left handed hitters though. Lefties are hitting just .200 against Beeter this season and .198 in his career. Beeter’s downer slider is a platoon neutral weapon that works against lefties and righties.

[imref]

My primary issue is that krook has ‘t shown anything at this level. I wouldn’t use him in high leverage situations.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

My primary issue is that krook has ‘t shown anything at this level. I wouldn’t use him in high leverage situations.

yes. he should be the low lev guy and earn his way up.

Pretty clear from the post-game that the org doesn't trust Poulin. He had been sent down earlier in the year, and Butera  would rather use a guy with an awful track record like Krook in a high lev spot than turn to Poulin to get the outs they needed. IF they view Poulin as strictly a LOOGY, then there's no use for him with the 3 batter rule.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Funny thing about Poulin and righties is, while he has some awful numbers this year, like 4.15 K%, 6.23 BB%, 1.67 WHIP, he not that homer-prone (7.4 HR/FB%). IOW, maybe Dominguez gives him trouble, but he's not likely to take him deep. Poulin has been pretty effective against lefties. Makes his comment about preferring Krook to Poulin in the 9th look even worse.

[welch]

Baseball wisdom, going back at least to the late 1940s with Joe Page of the Yankees, and Jimmy Konstanty of the Phillies, says your best relief pitcher becomes your closer. That's how Goose Gossage took over from Sparky Lyle. You never, never replace your best with the worst reliever in the pen, especially when your best is in the game and settled. Butera claims that the whole team understands "the process" and agrees. That sounds like baloney.

Maybe Butera has helped the hitters by his monthly or so sit down meetings.

Butera cannot handle the bullpen. He fails again and again. How many more wins would the Nats have if Butera let someone else decide on pitching changes?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I stand by my belief that this was too soon for Butera to become a manager. He is just clueless when it comes to managing pitchers. I think ultimately, somewhere maybe 5-10 years down the road he'll be a good manager somewhere but it won't be here.

[Slateman]

You guys aren't understanding how this work. Butera isn't making the decision. Late game bullpen decisions are brought up prior to the game with the baseball analytics folks and the decision is made there. Butera is just the messenger.

Do you REALLY think Kevin Cash chose to pull Blake Snell at 73 pitches in the World Series?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

You guys aren't understanding how this work. Butera isn't making the decision. Late game bullpen decisions are brought up prior to the game with the baseball analytics folks and the decision is made there. Butera is just the messenger.

Do you REALLY think Kevin Cash chose to pull Blake Snell at 73 pitches in the World Series?

Slate, come on man. You really expect me to believe the analytics told them to put Krook out there?

[Slateman]

Slate, come on man. You really expect me to believe the analytics told them to put Krook out there?

Yes. I'll guarantee that they have analyzes each pitchers' repitore against each of the Yankees' hitters and produced a best course of action. That's what hes talking about when he talks about the process.