Author Topic: Rule 5s for 2026  (Read 547 times)

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Offline imref

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Rule 5s for 2026
« on: October 20, 2025, 12:33:54 pm »
Rule 5 eligible players must be added to the 40-man by November 18 to be protected. The most likely adds are:

- Jake Bennett (LHP)
- Christian Franklin (OF)

I can't find a list of others but i'm sure there are plenty more who would be eligible.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2025, 02:07:59 pm »
Roster Resource at Fangraphs has a pretty good list of the system and notes who is rule 5 eligible with a R5 designation in the Options or R5 status column. Cayden Wallace and Kevin Made would be exposed, as would Murphy Stehly, who had a nice exposure to AAA but is 26. Nick Schnell. Riley Cornelio and several others who at one time or another were thought to have shown something. Tyler Stuart will be interesting. If someone has extra 40 man space, they could grab him  and put him on the 60 day IL all next year. He'd still need to be rostered in 2027, but they'd have a year to work with him on rehab and maybe get a peak at him before making a decision. Aldonis might be somebody they are thinking of keeping if he shows well in the AFL.

Of this whole list, I'd think Cornelio might be the only other name beyond Bennet and Franklin, with Aldonis and Stuart perhaps in the mix.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2025, 11:55:12 am »
temporarily stickying this up at the top until  the R5 draft.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #3 on: November 16, 2025, 11:03:12 am »
Todd Boss posted his annual rule-5 protection analysis:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19307

Locks to protect: Bennet and Franklin
Additional guys he thinks they should protect: Cornelio, Wallace

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #4 on: November 17, 2025, 12:04:37 pm »
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/toughest-rule-5-draft-decisions-2025

Quote
Nationals: Tyler Stuart, RHP (No. 28)
Stuart led the Minors with a 2.20 ERA in 2023 and went from the Mets to the Nationals in exchange for Jesse Winker at the 2024 Trade Deadline. He battled elbow issues for much of 2025 before having Tommy John surgery in August, which figures to sideline him for all of next season. When healthy, he leans heavily on an 82-85 mph slider that he sets up with a 92-95 mph sinker.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2025, 12:38:12 pm »
https://www.mlb.com/milb/news/toughest-rule-5-draft-decisions-2025

doesn't seem to be a need to protect a guy who won't be on a major league roster for all of next year.

Offline blue911

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2025, 01:10:41 pm »
doesn't seem to be a need to protect a guy who won't be on a major league roster for all of next year.

And rehabbing for the following season.

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #7 on: November 17, 2025, 04:34:22 pm »
doesn't seem to be a need to protect a guy who won't be on a major league roster for all of next year.
prolly. But he can be rehabbed on the 60 day IL  and work within the new system, then they get to look at him in 2027.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #8 on: November 18, 2025, 03:55:54 pm »
Nats add the following to the 40-man:

- LHP Jake Bennett
- RHP Riley Cornelio
- OF Christian Franklin

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #9 on: November 18, 2025, 04:12:49 pm »
Great Cornelio!

You have to reward your minor league pitcher of the year. Incentives.

Offline imref

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Re: 2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #10 on: November 19, 2025, 12:12:32 pm »
Do we want the Phillies' Griff McGarry? Their 2025 minor league pitcher of the year and former top prospect who walks a ton of batters. They did not protect him yesterday from rule-5.

https://thatballsouttahere.com/phillies-just-left-one-notable-name-exposed-to-rule-5-draft-but-protect-key-trio

Quote
McGarry was the Phillies' No. 3 prospect as recently as 2023, but after ongoing struggles with command he has now fallen completely out of MLB Pipeline's Top 30. At 26, he's a high-risk profile, with good stuff but too many walks.

In 72 innings in Double-A this year, McGarry posted a 3.25 ERA with 103 strikeouts but also allowed 45 walks (14.8 percent walk rate). He did make his return to Triple-A Lehigh Valley after pitching at the highest level in the minors in each of the last three seasons with disappointing results. He made one start for the IronPigs, striking out eight in five innings and walking just two.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #11 on: November 19, 2025, 12:54:16 pm »
Do we want the Phillies' Griff McGarry? Their 2025 minor league pitcher of the year and former top prospect who walks a ton of batters. They did not protect him yesterday from rule-5.

https://thatballsouttahere.com/phillies-just-left-one-notable-name-exposed-to-rule-5-draft-but-protect-key-trio

could  carry him as a reliever. While the BB rate is high, this year he was 13+ K/9 along with those BBs (5.27  BB/9). 35K%. 4 seam around 94 as a starter this year.

Longenhagen last January:
Quote
McGarry was struggling to the point that he had to be put on the developmental list in 2023. In 2024, he shifted into the bullpen and was still walking a batter per inning. In the Arizona Fall League, he was 92-95 with a good slider and looked like a potential up/down reliever on the days he threw strikes.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/philadelphia-phillies-top-30-prospects/

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Re: Re: 2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #12 on: November 19, 2025, 02:12:12 pm »
McGarry was unprotected last year also. Can you take a flyer on a pitcher that can’t throw strikes?  Maybe.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #13 on: November 19, 2025, 02:44:09 pm »
McGarry was unprotected last year also. Can you take a flyer on a pitcher that can’t throw strikes?  Maybe.
The bloom is definitely off the guy, and I'm not buying  yet that we can coach the walks out of him when Philly couldn't.  That said, the high K rate and maybe the velo  pick up could make  the guy carryable as a reliever for a year as the 7th/8th guy. It's not unusual for guy  with very high K rates with high BB rates to work out as relievers.

I think there  might be better picks and perhaps better uses of a roster spot, but he may be worth evaluating along with other guys. We  get a high rule 5 pick. I don't think we drop down to 10 for this. Whether this guy is is one of the 3 best potential picks, I dunno.

Offline blue911

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Re: 2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread
« Reply #14 on: November 19, 2025, 02:59:57 pm »
Do we want the Phillies' Griff McGarry? Their 2025 minor league pitcher of the year and former top prospect who walks a ton of batters. They did not protect him yesterday from rule-5.

https://thatballsouttahere.com/phillies-just-left-one-notable-name-exposed-to-rule-5-draft-but-protect-key-trio

No. Brian O’Connor couldn’t fix the guy in 4 years prior to Philly giving it a go for 5 more.

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #15 on: November 19, 2025, 04:56:37 pm »

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #16 on: November 19, 2025, 10:00:44 pm »
Nationals source suggests we pick catcher Daniel Susac out of the As. Good numbers in AAA last year. First round pick in 2022.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=susac-000dan

Seems he’s at worst a swap for Adams.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #17 on: November 19, 2025, 10:30:11 pm »
As good as Susac's numbers look, they're PCL numbers. League adjusted numbers are average or slightly below.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/daniel-susac/sa3019997/stats?position=C

That's still ok for a catcher. Tools look like Adams. Not a great hit tool, but good power.

As for his d, here's FG's  report going into last season, when he was the A's #23 prospect:
Quote
 Behind the dish, Susac moves around well and is a relatively quiet pitch receiver. His ball-blocking still needs a lot of work and his exit from his crouch is inconsistent and impacts his pop times, which are fine when he has a clean exchange. He’s a flawed third catcher at this point.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #18 on: November 20, 2025, 08:17:20 am »
Quiet pitch receiving would be an improvement for the Nats.

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #19 on: November 20, 2025, 12:36:49 pm »
I'll limit it to guys I've seen in person and liked (or in one case, saw a really talented, clearly injured player who is now healthy).

The version of McGarry you want is named Eric Reyzelman, unprotected from the Yankees.  Walked too many this year in AAA supposedly because he was struggling with his slider, but the 2024 version was a potential near-term back-end reliever.  Pure reliever.  I saw him at two levels and was surprised he didn't get promoted to NY.  Pretty much a two-pitch guy with a show-me changeup, but the two pitches were a 4-seamer with heavy arm-side run at 97 and a nasty sweeper. 

His 2024 AA numbers were absurd: 37 Ks and 14 hits in 23.1 innings (after being promoted from A+, where he had a zero ERA).  I don't know exactly what went wrong this year - the Yankees love tinkering with their pitchers, even when nothing is broken - but the 2024 version would have been one of the better arms in that year's Nats bullpen (which isn't saying much).  He's 24.  Same system as Beeter, similar stuff, similar body, similar issues, and I think similar results.  I liked Reyzelman better from what I saw in AA from each.

Peyton Pallette with CWS is a similar principle with a bit of starter upside, although also less reliever upside.  If you have two 40 man spots, you could always take two guys for one 26-man spot and let them sort it out in the spring.

There are also a couple guys who might end up available in the minor league portion (assuming they don't get added to AAA rosters) that might be interesting:

Anthony Solometo is a lefty starter in the Pittsburgh org who was a first round pick and then completely lost his way in 2024 - as in fastball velocity missing from 95 to 90, movement on changeup missing, looked completely mentally shot - who they finally admitted was hurt and came back late last season and had two good (10 IP, 2 hits) AA starts.  He's only 23 as of Opening Day and was picked in the first round for a reason.  If he's fixed, he's at least an MLB reliever.

Sammy Zavala is a CWS outfielder who finally seemed to figure out high-A later in the season.  He's athletic enough for center and is AA-ready at 21.  He might be something but is at worst a useful org piece.  If he's unprotected from the minors portion, I'd snap him up. 

Another minor league phase possibility would be Diego Velasquez from SF.  AA middle IF (yes, he can play SS, I've seen it) who is an effective slap and walks hitter lefty and useless hitting from the right side.  He's probably not a major league player except as emergency depth due to the offense, but a guy who can play both positions adequately, will at least make pitchers work, and doesn't need to be on the 40 is a useful org piece.  He just turned 22 so he's still young, but I don't see much more upside in him. 

Offline blue911

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #20 on: November 20, 2025, 02:02:20 pm »
Do you want your rookie manager dealing with a rule 5 guy?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #21 on: November 20, 2025, 02:29:55 pm »
Do you want your rookie manager dealing with a rule 5 guy?
it would constrain a bullpen or bench slot, but that can be worked around with a26 man roster.

Who am I kidding? They come up with a 1B or 2B, the dude may start

Online Elvir Ovcina

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #22 on: November 20, 2025, 02:38:12 pm »
it would constrain a bullpen or bench slot, but that can be worked around with a26 man roster.

Who am I kidding? They come up with a 1B or 2B, the dude may start

There's not much there on either front.  The fat redneck 1B St. Louis left unprotected can hammer fastballs but he's not going to play 1B. He's more of a DH and he doesn't hit enough for that.

And realistically, this team already has enough fringy types, including fringy prospects, at those positions.  What it doesn't have is enough even potentially useful near-term pitching, even in the bullpen.

Offline imref

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #23 on: November 24, 2025, 05:14:11 pm »
Next up: Rule 5 draft on 12/10.

Lots of intriguing options for the Nats: Blaze Jordan and David McCabe at 1B, Blake Burhalter (RHP), Hayden Mullins (LHP), and Susac of course.

Jordan is a RHB who did well in the Red Sox system before being traded for Steve Matz and heading to STL. He struggled in AAA in 41 games with Memphis. Just 22 years old with pop. Was most recently the #18 prospect in the STL system.

milb.com:
Quote
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 40 | Overall: 40

A legendary power hitter as an amateur, Jordan won his first competition at age 11, notched a pair of 500-foot blasts when he was 13 and prevailed at the High School Home Run Derby at the 2019 All-Star Game. After reclassifying from the 2021 Draft, he went in the third round in 2020 and signed for an over-slot $1.75 million. He has made more contact and provided less pop than expected, but he was enjoying his best pro season in 2025 when the Red Sox traded him to the Cardinals at the Deadline for Steven Matz in a one-for-one swap.

While Jordan's bat speed and strength have created impressive exit velocities throughout his pro career, his aggressive approach has muted his well-above-average raw power from the right side of the plate. Swing-and-miss concerns dogged him during his amateur career, but strikeouts haven't been an issue in the Minors. He's making a higher quality of contact this year by being more judicious about what pitches he offers at, giving hope that he could turn into a .250 hitter with 20 homers annually at the big league level.

Jordan has to produce at the plate because he's a well-below-average runner who's a subpar defender on the infield corners. He has soft hands and decent arm strength, but he lacks range. Primarily a third baseman in his first four seasons, he has spent more time at first base this year.

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Re: Rule 5s for 2026
« Reply #24 on: December 10, 2025, 02:08:19 pm »
Nats pick 3rd. Draft to start now ...

1st pick by the rockies - RJ petit from the tigers

2d - jedickson Paez from WooSox to the white sox


Nats -  Griff McGarry RHP Phillies