Author Topic: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026  (Read 1564 times)

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Online imref

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #25 on: January 28, 2026, 05:11:52 pm »
McDaniel's expanded top-200 has a lot more Nats:

117. Gavin Fien, SS
121. Luke Dickerson, SS
133. Devin Fitz-Gerald, SS
182. Seaver King, SS
190. Alejandro Rosario, RHP

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #26 on: January 29, 2026, 08:48:29 am »
Law ranks our farm system in "Tier 2", 6th overall.

Quote
The Nationals have certainly restocked their system in the last seven months, trading MacKenzie Gore for five prospects, four of whom are on their top 20; trading Jose A. Ferrer for a former top 100 prospect, Harry Ford; and picking up four more guys on their top 20 in smaller trades last July — all on top of having the No. 1 pick in the 2025 draft, which they used to take prep shortstop Eli Willits. On paper, it’s a lot of talent, but it’s also a lot of underperforming talent, at least relative to expectations when those players were drafted or first emerged as real prospects, giving the new front office a significant challenge in their first year on the job.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #27 on: January 30, 2026, 11:15:04 am »
I think our system right now is looking pretty strong in A and A+, rough in AA and AAA.

I don't mind that timeline. This coming season will be terrible, 2027 will be optimistically a shortened season.

I'm also really excited by Eli Willits. I thought the pick was more defensible than some made it out to be, and the early returns were top notch.

I'll leave to the main board the validity of the reports the Nats turned down Josuar Gonzalez for Abrams, but if that's true then a CJ Abrams trade return could leave this the deepest system we've had in a long time versus relying on a single prospect or two at the top to carry the day.

Offline zimm_da_kid

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #28 on: January 30, 2026, 10:34:07 pm »
I think our system right now is looking pretty strong in A and A+, rough in AA and AAA.

I don't mind that timeline. This coming season will be terrible, 2027 will be optimistically a shortened season.

I'm also really excited by Eli Willits. I thought the pick was more defensible than some made it out to be, and the early returns were top notch.

I'll leave to the main board the validity of the reports the Nats turned down Josuar Gonzalez for Abrams, but if that's true then a CJ Abrams trade return could leave this the deepest system we've had in a long time versus relying on a single prospect or two at the top to carry the day.


Probably since the Eaton trade. That offseason we were going to have the top system per bba before we dealt giolito and Lopez. Both were top 60 prospects at that point

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #29 on: February 04, 2026, 12:51:57 pm »
Zuck (still covering the Nats):
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Baseball America’s 2026 rankings have the Nationals’ farm system 16th out of 30 clubs. They ranked 14th last year, 15th the year before that.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #30 on: February 04, 2026, 02:35:23 pm »
Zuck (still covering the Nats):
did that predate the Gore trade?

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #31 on: February 04, 2026, 08:26:19 pm »
Even that seems high. All of this team's upside is either in Single A, or injured.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #32 on: February 04, 2026, 10:32:01 pm »
Even that seems high. All of this team's upside is either in Single A, or injured.
I think 16th is a bit low if post-Gore trade, but I don't disagree all the upside is hurt or in Wilmington and Fredericksburg. Very high ceiling, very low floor, lots of volatility.


Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #34 on: February 05, 2026, 07:29:00 am »
I think 16th is a bit low if post-Gore trade, but I don't disagree all the upside is hurt or in Wilmington and Fredericksburg. Very high ceiling, very low floor, lots of volatility.
I mean how do you or anyone else here really know.  Are you familiar with the contents of all the other teams farm systems.  I know I’m not.  Seems better to just focus on our top guys and see how they progress. The overall rankings seem meaningless in the scheme of things.  If looking at probably best to average out rankings by different evaluators. The guys who allegedly do look at all the teams.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #35 on: February 05, 2026, 10:55:28 am »
This system looks very different from a couple of years ago. Then, all the value was in a few top end guys - Wood, Crews, and not much else. This system lacks the close to the majors position players of high value. Even Willits and Fien are not seen as locks close to the majors. As Slate says, add in Sykora's injury and Susana questions, the system doesn't explode with locks that are likely above average.

 That said, it's extremely deep in terms of guys worth tracking and who have a decent shot at being something. They hit on one out of 5 of their 35+ or better and that's a lot of of help. I think they will likely have more than 50 guys in the next FG system review. They had 44 at the end of last year and added another 6 in the Ferrer and Gore deals, plus the international signings. If there's an Abrams or even a Garcia deal, it only gets deeper.

I can see maybe a ranking around 10-12 for the system now, but I can see that jumping with another draft, development of Fien and Willits removing uncertainty,  and some of the pitchers getting healthy.

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #36 on: February 05, 2026, 11:04:11 am »
Why not rate systems on their ability to develop players?

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #37 on: February 05, 2026, 11:14:34 am »
Why not rate systems on their ability to develop players?
harder to do? I suppose you could do some sort of measure of yield, like how many draft picks end up in the majors, with extra credit for guys who are regulars or throw so many quality innings, and more credit for legit star level players. Give some extra credit for later rounds and undrafted free agents. Sounds complex but that would be a numbers-based test.

As much as I like numbers, I think a better way is to poll smart people (gms, writers, other analysts,...) to get a sense. That might be better at tracking improvement of an organization. Most development guys don't stick around long enough for the numbers approach to measure their work.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #38 on: February 05, 2026, 11:50:14 am »
Why not rate systems on their ability to develop players?
I actually think that goes into ranking farm systems.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #39 on: February 05, 2026, 12:22:40 pm »
I actually think that goes into ranking farm systems.
then past rankings of the Nats system probably were below the raw talent level figuring we couldn't teach them up

Offline blue911

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #40 on: February 05, 2026, 02:49:23 pm »
Bowden drafted Zim and Lannan in 2005. I’m much more impressed with Lannan’s development than Zim’s who came fully formed.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #41 on: February 07, 2026, 09:56:51 am »
Law's Nats top 20:
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7022510/2026/02/06/washington-nationals-2026-top-100-prospects-keith-law/

1. Willits
2. Fien
3. King
4. Sykora
5. Ford
6. Susana
7. Dickerson
8. Peterson
9. Perales
10. Clemmey

He says Abimelec Ortiz (16) should get a shot at 1B and that Rosario still hasn't had TJ.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #42 on: February 07, 2026, 11:38:10 am »
No Fitz-Gerald or Rosario in the top 20?

Is Dickerson that high by default or enthusiasm?

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #43 on: February 16, 2026, 12:47:41 pm »
Fangraphs top-100 is out. Willits at 15. Susana and Ford make the cut as well. Sykora came in at 109

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-100-prospects/

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #44 on: February 16, 2026, 12:57:41 pm »
Fangraphs top-100 is out. Willits at 15. Susana and Ford make the cut as well. Sykora came in at 109

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2026-top-100-prospects/
harry ford #74

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #45 on: February 16, 2026, 01:26:55 pm »
Willits is way ahead of Ethan Holliday (47)

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #46 on: February 16, 2026, 02:16:15 pm »
Willits is way ahead of Ethan Holliday (47)
reading the write up, FG projects him as developing average power while staying a good SS defensively, and thinks his lack of pull on fastballs is more age-related than a weakness

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #47 on: February 17, 2026, 05:06:55 am »
harry ford #74

Seems to be a decently high ranking for Ford.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #48 on: February 17, 2026, 01:48:52 pm »
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-2026-top-100-prospects/

Sykora #42
Ford #50
Yeremy Cabrera #54
Clemmey #62
Susana #69 (niiice....)

Have no additional prospects between ##70-200.

Beyond that, Devin Fitz-Gerald gets a mention as a top 10 3rd base prospect due to the weakness of the position. He's #271 overall.

Cabrera is the 7th highest ranked OF and is described as a "sneaky good" pickup in the Gore trade.

3 pitchers in the  pitching top 25. As for Clemmey, recognizing he "still has to lose a walk or two before he'll make an iompact," ZiPS  / Szymborski says  a hard-throwing lefty who draws swings and misses is worth watching. 


As for no Willits, there's an explanation:
Quote
There are a few important things to remember here. First, ZiPS has absolutely no way to consider high school prospects with little or no professional experience. Eli Willits absence from this list isn’t due to anything wrong with his statistics, but simply the fact that ZiPS doesn’t have anything useful to say about a player with 15 professional games and no college experience. ZiPS is a good tool, but I see little point in using it for something it can’t possibly be good at. There are some college-only players on this list, but they do take a hit if the projections are based mostly or exclusively on college data, similar to Nick Kurtz last year.

All in all, adjusting for the reasoning for omitting Willits (and Fien by the same reasoning), this is about as favorable a projection of the Nats top prospects as I've seen. In a way, its not surprising. It's data and modeling driven, and the Toboni regime is and the DeBartolo interim was driven by data analysis.

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Re: Nationals Prospect Reports / Minor League Rankings: 2026
« Reply #49 on: March 03, 2026, 08:21:47 pm »
https://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19440

Todd Boss's thoughts on the MLB Pipeline top 30.  Notes that the system top 5 is pretty settled among all lists, with Willits at the top and Sykora, Ford, Susana, and Fien occupying the rest of the spots.

Quote
Our entire top 20 now is Draft or Trade acquisitions; you have to go down to #21 to find the first IFA in German Marconi. Hopefully the new regime has a plan to return our relatively disastrous IFA system into something that generates talent.
...
Just like Keith Law, they’re incredibly high on Tejeda, ranking him #13. wow. Reading his scouting report, they’re putting the 6’8″ starter at mid 90s, which plays up with his height, with 2 decent secondary pitches and a 60 grade on his slider. They say 4th or 5th starter ceiling. Can’t wait to see what he does in 2026.
They’re also pretty high on Jackson Kent, noting his 18 K/BB ratio but only giving him a 50 for his control (weird). Another guy who’ll be in AA in 2026. Can’t wait to see this crew run through Richmond (June 9th-14th) to get a look at some of them.

Notes a few players they seem lower on than others, like Yoyo, who doesn't make the top 30.

Article is free so read the link for the rest of his observations.