2025-2026 Offseason Discussion Thread

[Slateman]

I'm guessing the Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, and Phillies all have analytics departments. An analytic mindset doesn't guarantee wins, but lacking that mindset is a sure way to sign up for losing.

I'm bullish long term the Nats will be middle of the pack in spending. They were aggressive in the 2010's. The last few years have been disappointing, but I think the MASN mess, not knowing if they're selling or not, the Corbin & Strasburg albatrosses, and a massive amount of friction between Rizzo and ownership all put downward pressure on spending. I don't think we're ever getting top 5 in spending again, but I don't think long term we're operating like the Rays, Guardians, and Marlins. The franchise has a newish, soon-to-be renovated stadium in a rich market. The fundamentals are positive.

This is a bottom out year. I don't hate not spending, especially on the eve of the labor dispute. Saying that, my optimism will quickly drain if entering 2027/2028 -- labor strike dependent -- the Nationals are still bottoming out. The Strasburg money drops by $10 million after this season, Corbin is gone, the Scherzer money is almost done. The Ruiz contract may age like milk, but it isn't a disaster like Corbin contract. Combine that financial flexibility and taking a bet on a lot of low minors talent, I think the Nationals need to start ramping up and prepare for success.

The reason analytics was developed and utilized was for cheap teams. That rich teams use it is irrelevant.

Middle of the pack in the current system is simply not good enough.

[IanRubbish]

The reason analytics was developed and utilized was for cheap teams. That rich teams use it is irrelevant.

The use of analytics is constantly evolving, including among big market teams.  This org has just discovered them and is just catching up to where many teams were years ago.

[Natsinpwc]

I know that the Dodgers use analytics but to say they’re winning because of that instead of accumulating many of the bestplayers with a huge payroll is a bit silly. Look at the top teams each year and it correlates generally with payroll. And sure there are some exceptions. It’s talent baby.

[blue911]

I know that the Dodgers use analytics but to say they’re winning because of that instead of accumulating many of the nets players with a huge payroll is a bit silly. Look at the top teams each year and it correlates generally with payroll. And sure there are some exceptions. It’s talent baby.

Analytics is what keeps you from a Strasburg type contract.

[Natsinpwc]

Analytics is what keeps you from a Strasburg type contract.

No that’s just not being utterly stupid. They knew he had serious arm issues. We all did.

[blue911]

No that’s just not being utterly stupid. They knew he had serious arm issues. We all did.

Huh? Every team with an analytics department passed on him. Yet somehow you’re arguing that analytics wouldn’t have helped? Okay.

[blue911]

I would also like to point out that every team with an analytics department passed on Rendon as well.

[Slateman]

No that’s just not being utterly stupid. They knew he had serious arm issues. We all did.

Analytics keep you from spending on any big free agent. Hence why the Brewers just traded their best starting pitcher

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Analytics is what keeps you from a Strasburg type contract.

for years they've been saying the next big analytical break through would be better predicting injuries. With Strasburg, I think they thought they had a handle on the thoracic outlet symptoms.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Analytics keep you from spending on any big free agent. Hence why the Brewers just traded their best starting pitcher

I  don’t buy this. Dodgers have Andrew Freedman, Red Sox had Theo when they spent ...
If analytics keeps you from spending on anything, I think it's long term pitching contracts. Thus, You'd avoid Strasburg when it got beyond 4 or 5 years

[Natsinpwc]

Analytics keep you from spending on any big free agent. Hence why the Brewers just traded their best starting pitcher

Yea the Dodgers haven’t spent on any big free agents.  And none of the free agents they signed have any injury issues. 

[blue911]

I  don’t buy this. Dodgers have Andrew Freedman, Red Sox had Theo when they spent ...
If analytics keeps you from spending on anything, I think it's long term pitching contracts. Thus, You'd avoid Strasburg when it got beyond 4 or 5 years

The Dodgers aren’t using it as a justification to not spend, they’re trying to avoid the Carl Crawford type deal. It isn’t pick a lane, either you spend or you rely on analytics you can do both.

[Slateman]

Yea the Dodgers haven’t spent on any big free agents.  And none of the free agents they signed have any injury issues. 

They're not using analytics to sign their big free agents. They're using it to build their system to supplement the big league roster.

[imref]

Nats have hired RJ Anderson for an unspecified front-office role. Had been a writer for CBS Sports and Baseball Prospectus.

[Natsinpwc]

The Dodgers aren’t using it as a justification to not spend, they’re trying to avoid the Carl Crawford type deal. It isn’t pick a lane, either you spend or you rely on analytics you can do both.

Sure and they’ve always had a great farm system. Long before anyone ever heard of analytics. So whatever it is it’s good.  But they didn’t win until they signed Ohtani. Well
Except for the Covid year.

[Natsinpwc]

Nats have hired RJ Anderson for an unspecified front-office role. Had been a writer for CBS Sports and Baseball Prospectus.

Spin control!  And not pitch spin.

[Smithian]

The reason analytics was developed and utilized was for cheap teams. That rich teams use it is irrelevant.

Middle of the pack in the current system is simply not good enough.

Teams were hiring statistical staff decades ago.

Analytics weren’t created for cheap teams, they just leaned into more advanced ones because they had to. Big market teams always used stats, even if mostly traditional ones. Smaller teams pushed deeper analytics to find market inefficiencies and undervalued assets, the Oakland Athletics weren’t the first, just the most famous.

Now everyone’s doing it, and the edge is still about out innovating each other. The Yankees of old, and teams like the Dodgers today, can just pay for the elite players the models identify. The New York Mets didn’t pursue Juan Soto because they liked his makeup, they saw elite production in the numbers and paid for it. Lower budget teams are still trying to find the undervalued guy before everyone else catches on.

The Rizzo Nationals had a stats department. The Nat didn't win a World Series by being luddites. I just hope Toboni is now better and more effectively integrating it throughout the organization.

[Slateman]

Sure and they’ve always had a great farm system. Long before anyone ever heard of analytics. So whatever it is it’s good.  But they didn’t win until they signed Ohtani. Well
Except for the Covid year.

Lol, what? Friedman got there in 2015. He brought the analytics focused approaches.

I also think the Dodgers' prospects are overrated, but thats another story

[IanRubbish]

The Rizzo Nationals had a stats department.

Technically true, but it was bare bones and not influential.  Rizzo was a dinosaur who evaluated based on speed, physique, and arm strength and the Nats weren't just being outspent, they were outsmarted by just about every other team.  And it wasn't just the awful drafting and development, it drove my crazy (as evidenced in many GDT comments last year) to see how many more pitches our starters were throwing after 2/3/4 innings compared to their opponents.  Often 50-100% more.  One reason why even the healthy starting pitchers fell apart in the 2nd half of the season.

[Natsinpwc]

Lol, what? Friedman got there in 2015. He brought the analytics focused approaches.

I also think the Dodgers' prospects are overrated, but thats another story

The Dodgers have been very good for decades. Including long before Friedman got there. Go look up how many losing seasons they have had. Last one was 1999. And they won the west in 2013 and 2014 before Friedman took over. They also won the west in 2004/8/9. So if you want pretend he magically transformed them into a winner so be it.

[nobleisthyname]

The Rizzo Nationals had a stats department. The Nat didn't win a World Series by being luddites.

They won a WS despite being statistical luddites.

[Slateman]

They won a WS despite being statistical luddites.

4th winningest team in baseball for almost a decade (2010-2019). Don't think they did that despite anything.

[Smithian]

They won a WS despite being statistical luddites.

Dave Martinez is a bad manager. Old Man Lerner was cheap. Rizzo is a bad GM. The Nats were pour in developing, scouting, evaluating. Things went really poorly post-2020 and everyone was fired for a reason, but eventually we have to admit the Nats won a 7 game world series for a reason.

After beating the Astros, I know there was some crowing from the Nats scouts how the Astros were some nerds we stuffed in a locker, but there was a great NYT article that year on Sam Mondry-Cohen discussing how scouts brought analytics staff (including a young staffer named Mike DeBartolo) on the road and used analytics to help drive their offseason strategy.

I'm not behind the scenes. But my guess is Rizzo probably got high on his own supply after 2019, believed it was the scouts who won it, then in 2020 and 2021 as the game rapidly evolved, he didn't follow. I'm also guessing that analytic approach never got into the minors judging by results.

[nobleisthyname]

I'm not saying Rizzo was a bad GM, I'm saying he was clearly a Luddite when it came to analytics. Those things are often correlated but are distinct.

[tomterp]

4th winningest team in baseball for almost a decade (2010-2019). Don't think they did that despite anything.

Fixed