Toboni: Not just a Jabroni for POBO

[Slateman]

Am I a joke to you?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Funny how?

[imref]

Ghiroli says they are still hiring a GM.

[imref]

Toboni has full control of baseball operations, including hiring, according to The Athletic.

[Smithian]

https://xcancel.com/britt_ghiroli/status/1971000947506807242?s=46&t=1M_hPOxGeEOJCVnR8Ey9Mg

Wow, that's interesting. His age made me think that he was coming to DC to be the GM with major control and they'd hire someone over him to sort of guide the franchise as a whole. I'm given real optimism seeing they realize the Rizzo lone soldier model isn't the best setup.

I really want to see more executive hires on the business side.

[machpost]

Amen.  Since he he is cute can we have a cute on field female reporter to balance it out.

Let's not get greedy. You will get Dan Kolko in a dress wearing a blonde wig and like it.

[Slateman]

Wow, that's interesting. His age made me think that he was coming to DC to be the GM with major control and they'd hire someone over him to sort of guide the franchise as a whole. I'm given real optimism seeing they realize the Rizzo lone soldier model isn't the best setup.

I really want to see more executive hires on the business side.

So this is starting to make me concerned. Toboni hasn't even been a GM, let alone dealt directly with ownership before. And, especially, has not dealt with an ownership group that is as this divisive and dysfunctional as the Lerners. So he hasn't dealt with ownership before and he's never been a GM, let alone hired a GM. I just feel like this is a lot of on the job learning for the guy.

I also want to know if he got any commitment to spending in writing. Because, no matter how great this guy is, without ownership being willing to spend significant money on player development, we're looking at some marginal improvements through the draft and then probably lesser returns in trades of our good players.

[Slateman]

Let's not get greedy. You will get Dan Kolko in a dress wearing a blonde wig and like it.

Don't you tease me with a good time

[varoadking]

So this is starting to make me concerned. Toboni hasn't even been a GM, let alone dealt directly with ownership before. And, especially, has not dealt with an ownership group that is as this divisive and dysfunctional as the Lerners. So he hasn't dealt with ownership before and he's never been a GM, let alone hired a GM. I just feel like this is a lot of on the job learning for the guy.

I also want to know if he got any commitment to spending in writing. Because, no matter how great this guy is, without ownership being willing to spend significant money on player development, we're looking at some marginal improvements through the draft and then probably lesser returns in trades of our good players.

I repeat:

Another low bidder?

[madj55]

I hope his first move is not renewing the contracts of the entire coaching staff.

[varoadking]

I hope his first move is not renewing the contracts of the entire coaching staff.

Word...

Now he needs to fire everyone else...

[Natsinpwc]

I’m not gonna worry at this point.  Hiring someone outside the organization is a good starts and pleasantly surprised by that and also creating POBO position.  Rizzo had too much authority and too much on his plate.

[Natsinpwc]

Word...

I just want him to say he’s building around Crews and Wood and Lile!

[Slateman]

I hope his first move is not renewing the contracts of the entire coaching staff.

Now he needs to fire everyone else...

I think new coaches are obvious, but I'd be very surprised if he completely cleaned house. For one thing, Toboni has been described as very people-focused. It's what has separated him from other candidates that are scouts and/or analytics-based. Its unlikely someone that values people in that way will just come in and make cuts en masse. But also, Toboni has survived multiple regime changes in Boston. Not only has he survived, but he has thrived. Three other PoBOs have not only seen fit to keep him, but rapidly promote him in an attempt to keep him. So I'd be very surprised if he came in and just cut everyone. I expect that he will add and remove people over the course of the next 2-3 years.

Which brings me to another point. Barring a massive about-face in spending by the Lerners, this will likely not be a quick turnaround for this team. We won't see the fruits of Toboni's improvement in scouting, drafting, and player development for 3-5 years. But hopefully, hiring a guy so young means they intend to stick with him for long enough to maybe turn this partially around.

[nobleisthyname]

Which brings me to another point. Barring a massive about-face in spending by the Lerners, this will likely not be a quick turnaround for this team. We won't see the fruits of Toboni's improvement in scouting, drafting, and player development for 3-5 years. But hopefully, hiring a guy so young means they intend to stick with him for long enough to maybe turn this partially around.

2030 is the year I have in my head now for when to realistically expect the next competitive Nats team. A lot depends on how the lockout plays out.

[varoadking]

2030 is the year I have in my head now for when to realistically expect the next competitive Nats team. A lot depends on how the lockout plays out.

By then, not one player currently on the roster will still be there...which is probably a good thing...

[imref]

Svrluga:

On the Nats hiring Paul Toboni as prez of baseball ops: Am hearing very good things about him as a baseball guy and a person.
“Likeable.”
“Good guy. Not a tyrant to work for.”
“Smart. Big job but he’s up for it.”

There is hope within the org Toboni keeps Mike DeBartolo as GM.

[Slateman]

2030 is the year I have in my head now for when to realistically expect the next competitive Nats team. A lot depends on how the lockout plays out.

Again, all dependent on what ownership is willing to spend. At their current level, then yea, 2029-2030 are probably the soonest. But if this team got an active payroll that is in the top half of baseball, and we could be a WC team next year. We get new coaches in, we get proper player development at the Triple A and a major league level, and a couple good free agents is all it would take to get this team to 82-85 wins.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Again, all dependent on what ownership is willing to spend. At their current level, then yea, 2029-2030 are probably the soonest. But if this team got an active payroll that is in the top half of baseball, and we could be a WC team next year. We get new coaches in, we get proper player development at the Triple A and a major league level, and a couple good free agents is all it would take to get this team to 82-85 wins.

I kind of look at the Rangers. When they decided to compete, they brought in Semien and Seager the same offseason as well as some pitching. They actually had another down year after that, then they won the World Series with guys like Carter, Adolis, Jung, and Heim/Garver. I don't think that's too far out of reach if the will is there.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

As for keeping DeBartolo, it would be at a role junior to Toboni, so similar to DeB's role under Rizzo but with a better title. The two are analytics guys, so they should be comfortable. IT would not surprise me too much to see DeB stick.

[Smithian]

As for keeping DeBartolo, it would be at a role junior to Toboni, so similar to DeB's role under Rizzo but with a better title. The two are analytics guys, so they should be comfortable. IT would not surprise me too much to see DeB stick.

I'd have been uncomfortable had this announcement been paired with a "DeBartolo is still GM" announcement. I would be fine with DeBartolo is retained as GM, but at the same time I want to at least believe Toboni is getting a brief amount of time to check out the organization underneath the hood to see if there is anything worth maintaining or if it's time to just dynamite the whole thing.

[Smithian]

So this is starting to make me concerned. Toboni hasn't even been a GM, let alone dealt directly with ownership before. And, especially, has not dealt with an ownership group that is as this divisive and dysfunctional as the Lerners. So he hasn't dealt with ownership before and he's never been a GM, let alone hired a GM. I just feel like this is a lot of on the job learning for the guy.

We have no idea if Toboni is the next Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman or if we're 24 to 30 months from reading anonymously sourced articles from WaPo about how this was doomed from the beginning.

I at least now have hope it may be better, and I mostly lost that emotion in past few years.

[Slateman]

I kind of look at the Rangers. When they decided to compete, they brought in Semien and Seager the same offseason as well as some pitching. They actually had another down year after that, then they won the World Series with guys like Carter, Adolis, Jung, and Heim/Garver. I don't think that's too far out of reach if the will is there.

They went all out. I don't even think the Nats need to do that. For instance, if Rizzo had simply been allowed to knock out adeal with Christian Walker, we'd have gotten the same performance out of first base, but replaced Colin Poche with Robert Garcia. Think of how much a difference that makes earlier this year? Or spend a little bit more on starting pitching. If we had sprung for Lucas Giolito, Matt Boyd, or Nick Pivetta instead of Williams, that's a huge difference. Even with this coaching staff, just adding another 25-30 million in payroll this year would have likely got us to mid 70 wins.

150 million in active payroll with competent coaching gets us to 85ish wins. That's enough to sniff the playoffs.

[Slateman]

We have no idea if Toboni is the next Theo Epstein or Andrew Friedman or if we're 24 to 30 months from reading anonymously sourced articles from WaPo about how this was doomed from the beginning.

I at least now have hope it may be better, and I mostly lost that emotion in past few years.

My hope is severely tempered by the ownership issue. Which is why I've been adamant that selling the team to anyone would be better than it remaining in this 6 headed nepobaby monster.

[IanRubbish]

I kind of look at the Rangers. When they decided to compete, they brought in Semien and Seager the same offseason as well as some pitching. They actually had another down year after that, then they won the World Series with guys like Carter, Adolis, Jung, and Heim/Garver. I don't think that's too far out of reach if the will is there.

I do not see this org's fine ownership shelling out half a billion of a pair of Boras clients, and sprinkling some DeGrom-like pitchers and others on top of that. 

Ending the cronyism, play-the-contract, and careless play of the Rizzo/Martinez era would be a great start.  Top 15 Bullpen ERA and positive outs above average can happen without spending like crazy.