Author Topic: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals  (Read 14063 times)

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Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #450 on: August 01, 2025, 08:07:44 pm »
Haven’t there been two federal tax cuts on high earners since the contract was signed?
Scherzer or the Stras extension? Scherzer has gotten the benefit of the 2017 and 2024 bills, STras just the latter.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #451 on: August 02, 2025, 08:36:54 am »
There was some interesting discussion on the Finnegan contract deferrals on today's Nat's Chat episode. According to Zuckerman, the reason for the deferrals is because Rizzo used every penny of budget the Lerners allowed him to spend and by the time Finnegan was ready to sign in March, there wasn't enough money left in his budget to pay him more than $2M this season and if he wanted more he would have to accept deferrals.

It's true that at the end of the day both sides can do the NPV math on what these contracts are worth and make informed decisions and deferrals aren't inherently cheap, but if the above from Zuckerman is true then that raises some eyebrows for me. At the very least it's more evidence for the utterly inflexible nature of the Lerners and their financial dealings. Once they gave Rizzo a budget they weren't going to adjust it even for what is ultimately a rounding error for them.

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #452 on: August 02, 2025, 08:39:04 am »
So, again, because the Lerners are cheap

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #453 on: August 02, 2025, 08:53:48 am »
Scherzer or the Stras extension? Scherzer has gotten the benefit of the 2017 and 2024 bills, STras just the latter.

Generally the 2025 "One Big Beautiful Bill" makes permanent the 2017 tax rate reductions passed in 2017.  Both Max and Stras would have been enjoying the lower rates included in the 2017 bill all along, right?

From my Schwab letter describing changes.

Quote
Tax rates under the prior law, Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
(TCJA), are now permanent, with a slight change that will
result in more income falling into the lower two tax rates.
Tax rates are 10%, 12%, 22%, 24%, 32%, 35%, and 37%

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #454 on: August 02, 2025, 09:31:24 am »
Blue911 had said he thought there were 2 tax cuts for high earners since someone signed. There's been two since Scherzer signed (2017 & the extension of the 2017 rates in OBBB). Scherzer made out well in the deferrals because they were taxed at a lower rate than what it was when he signed for 2015-16. Deferring $30 million or so got it taxed at a lower amount. As for Strasburg, he actually ran a risk in 2019 that the later payments would have been after the 2017 cut expired. He got a break with the OBBB keeping the 2017 rates.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #455 on: August 02, 2025, 10:18:04 am »
There was some interesting discussion on the Finnegan contract deferrals on today's Nat's Chat episode. According to Zuckerman, the reason for the deferrals is because Rizzo used every penny of budget the Lerners allowed him to spend and by the time Finnegan was ready to sign in March, there wasn't enough money left in his budget to pay him more than $2M this season and if he wanted more he would have to accept deferrals.

It's true that at the end of the day both sides can do the NPV math on what these contracts are worth and make informed decisions and deferrals aren't inherently cheap, but if the above from Zuckerman is true then that raises some eyebrows for me. At the very least it's more evidence for the utterly inflexible nature of the Lerners and their financial dealings. Once they gave Rizzo a budget they weren't going to adjust it even for what is ultimately a rounding error for them.
Not to be a Lerner defender, but if Rizzo has a budget and Finnegan won't sign, so Rizzo spends elsewhere within his budget, then Finnegan comes back ... Why is that the Lerner's fault? I'd like the budget to be higher but budgets are budgets and probably every team outside NYC and LA has them.

Maybe I'm looking at this from too much of a pure business perspective, but this doesn't bother me. Would we rather Rizzo have no budget and he have to go and beg for every signing, not knowing when the answer would go from "yes" to "no"?

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #456 on: August 02, 2025, 12:41:45 pm »
Its the Lerners fault because why the freak is there a budget in a capless sport?

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #457 on: August 02, 2025, 01:59:04 pm »
So, again, because the Lerners are cheap

Yes, the deferrals are not some sensible business strategy because they force payments into out years than then compete with salary for existing players.  I'm sure the Lerners pay their bills the last minute before they're due, and the deferrals are yet another cheap strategy to hold onto cash until the last possible second.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #458 on: August 02, 2025, 02:02:29 pm »
Not to be a Lerner defender, but if Rizzo has a budget and Finnegan won't sign, so Rizzo spends elsewhere within his budget, then Finnegan comes back ... Why is that the Lerner's fault?

Because the Lerners non-tendered Finnegan when there were zero options for a closer.  Now the season is shot and people don't care, but that was the first sign that this season was going to be yet another joke.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #459 on: August 02, 2025, 02:08:48 pm »
It's true that at the end of the day both sides can do the NPV math on what these contracts are worth and make informed decisions and deferrals aren't inherently cheap, but if the above from Zuckerman is true then that raises some eyebrows for me.

Exactly, another cheap move.  But there's the other side of the equation.  In the case of Boras, he doesn't care about NPV, he negotiates comps on total pay, and gets paid on total contract value.  So if deferrals raise the market value of contracts, by enabling deals that wouldn't happen without them, like Strasburg's and Scherzer's, he's all for them.  Moreover, they bring in additional buyers...like the Nats.  Boras is better off with both those deals getting done and setting comps.

Offline tomterp

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #460 on: August 02, 2025, 06:27:41 pm »
Exactly, another cheap move.  But there's the other side of the equation.  In the case of Boras, he doesn't care about NPV, he negotiates comps on total pay, and gets paid on total contract value.  So if deferrals raise the market value of contracts, by enabling deals that wouldn't happen without them, like Strasburg's and Scherzer's, he's all for them.  Moreover, they bring in additional buyers...like the Nats.  Boras is better off with both those deals getting done and setting comps.

Don't you think Boras gets paid annually (or something close) as his players get paid?  The only way he doesn't care about NPV is if he gets his entire cut day 1.   I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that his fees are paid as the players are paid, so NPV is just as relevant to agent as it is to player.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #461 on: August 02, 2025, 06:37:43 pm »
That maybe how Boras is paid, but for reputation he aways seeks to top prior total dollars or AAV

Offline welch

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #462 on: August 02, 2025, 06:41:03 pm »
Maybe the Nats have had nobody to trade? Consider who the Nats owned from 2020 onward, both in the majors and in the organization.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #463 on: August 02, 2025, 06:59:44 pm »
Don't you think Boras gets paid annually (or something close) as his players get paid?  The only way he doesn't care about NPV is if he gets his entire cut day 1.   I'm going to go out on a limb and assume that his fees are paid as the players are paid, so NPV is just as relevant to agent as it is to player.

They aren't because he gets a percentage, and what matters to him is driving the market up and he'll sacrifice NPV to do it, this is well known among GMs.  Without heavy deferrals, the Nats don't sign Scherzer or extend Strasburg.  He knows without them he's taking one buyer out of the demand pool, which is a big deal when over half the teams don't spend or won't deal with him.  He did this with Chris Davis as well, where he took heavy deferrals in order to keep the Orioles in the game as a buyer. He needs to be able to tell teams "others are interested".  If you look at the Soto negotiations, he got the Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, Dodgers, even Blue Jays out to the media.  If the Nats were just spending like the Expos, and everyone knew that, this leak all interested parties to the media wouldn't work. He also needs to spread dollars across as many teams as possible to keep this going.  When the Rangers had their payroll drop he pounced on them with Corey Seager and Marcus Semien.  His calculation is that the extra value of bringing teams like the Nats drives up contract value and that he'd get less overall if the option to defer wasn't out there to bring in buyers.  He's not altruistic or stupid, he's just using it as a way to push up demand.  He's actually clashed with Tony Clark from the MLBPA on this because the union is less excited about them.







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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #465 on: September 26, 2025, 04:09:26 pm »
Finnegan has the highest WPA of any pitcher traded at the deadline:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-judge-midseason-trades-now/

Online blue911

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #466 on: September 27, 2025, 08:34:18 am »
Finnegan has the highest WPA of any pitcher traded at the deadline:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/lets-judge-midseason-trades-now/

Pretty much what Tyler Clippard was pulling in the set-up role. The Tigers should be pleased.


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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #467 on: September 27, 2025, 09:30:24 am »
Finnegan literally cost them the game last night.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #468 on: September 27, 2025, 10:49:39 am »
Finnegan literally cost them the game last night.
Given up at least one run in 3 of last 4 appearances.  I doubt he will do great in the playoffs going against the top lineups.

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Re: 2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals
« Reply #469 on: September 27, 2025, 11:10:54 am »
Given up at least one run in 3 of last 4 appearances.  I doubt he will do great in the playoffs going against the top lineups.

Yep. I was pissed at the Tigers deadline and now Im just accepting an early exit. Harris should be fired. Hinch is incredibly overrated.

They have one more year of Skubal. They will not have Jobe next year. They desperately need a #2/co-ace. Instead, they picked up scrap at the deadline