2025 MLB Trade Deadline - Rumors, pontificafions, innuendo, zdk, and deals

[IanRubbish]

xERA is literally derived from things like launch angle and exit velocity. All of the "x" stats are based on statcast data (minus xFIP). If you look at his savant page his hard hit rate is below average but his barrel rate is very good.

It is, but it puts an exceptionally high value of not walking guys because it's derived from xwOBA.  I'm all in favor of that, but there are pitchers like Soroka and Williams who have high launch angles that don't get weighted as heavily, and it makes them look better than they really are. 

[nobleisthyname]

It is, but it puts an exceptionally high value of not walking guys because it's derived from xwOBA.  I'm all in favor of that, but there are pitchers like Soroka and Williams who have high launch angles that don't get weighted as heavily, and it makes them look better than they really are.

Soroka is giving up a lot of hard contact, but he's also got a really high GB%, so I don't think launch angle specifically is his issue.

[IanRubbish]

Soroka is giving up a lot of hard contact, but he's also got a really high GB%, so I don't think launch angle specifically is his issue.

It is according to statcast, and also his very high HR rate.

[nobleisthyname]

It is according to statcast, and also his very high HR rate.

I was originally just looking at the surface level numbers on his Savant page where he has a 67th percentile GB rate and a 76th percentile barrel rate. Intuitively that would suggest not many fly balls and thus a lower launch angle.

But you're right, his average launch angle this season is 14 degrees compared to an MLB average of 12.4. That said, if you look even deeper into his batted ball profile you'll see he has an abnormally low line drive and high fly ball rate, which is why he's able to sport an above average groundball rate along with an above average launch angle. i.e., when players hit the ball in the air against him, they tend to be moonshots rather than no doubters off the sweet spot of the bat. Not sure how sustainable that approach would be for a hitter.

Also, looking at some non-stat cast data, he's got a 64.7% left on base rate compared to a league average of 72.7% and a HR/FB rate of 14.9% compared to a league average of 11.4%. Like BABIP, these two stats tend to be outside of a pitcher's direct control and outliers almost always regress to league average.

So I think I'm still in the camp that another team will be interested in giving him a shot on a team with good defense/catching/bullpen.

[Slateman]

https://xcancel.com/foulterritorytv/status/1942646170259530141?s=46

If the Nationals traded MacKenzie Gore, they'd be admitting they need to go backwards before they go forward, says @Ken_Rosenthal.

"Maybe the Nationals don't want to admit that, but their system is not in a place to support Gore, James Wood, and CJ Abrams."

[IanRubbish]

https://xcancel.com/foulterritorytv/status/1942646170259530141?s=46

They do need to go backwards to go forwards, the farm is almost bare of high level prospects now and the MLB team is 17 games under .500.  So trading Gore makes sense, plus it probably saves the penny pinching owners $10 million next year and $15 million the year after.  In addition to cheap, high level prospects can buy a lot of technology with that $.

Also increases the chances of doing something before Wood leaves after the '30 season.  Doing anything of note before Gore leaves after '27 is a lot less likely.

[Mattionals]

https://xcancel.com/foulterritorytv/status/1942646170259530141?s=46

Then spend. Unless you think Gore is a lousy contract waiting to happen, pay him. Build with what you've got and spend to get other players in. You would hope that Wood, Crews, CJ, Gore, and one more guy are enough to build around. Better idea is to think about trading Garcia Jr. Won't bring a big return but you could open up the spot at SS or 2B for a FA signing.

[IanRubbish]

Then spend. Unless you think Gore is a lousy contract waiting to happen, pay him.

Not an option.  Boras is going to want a massive overpay and will get it from the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies etc.  Gore is gone after '27 regardless.  He needs to be traded so the rebuild from the T. Rizzo devastation can begin now. 

[Mattionals]

Not an option.  Boras is going to want a massive overpay and will get it from the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies etc.  Gore is gone after '27 regardless.  He needs to be traded so the rebuild from the T. Rizzo devastation can begin now.

Make Gore your next Strasburg. Let me be real, I'm not saying we should do this, but if ownership wants to show they are going to put out a contender, they need to spend. If they don't, be honest and say we are the new pirates. Or sell the team.

[Slateman]

Then spend. Unless you think Gore is a lousy contract waiting to happen, pay him. Build with what you've got and spend to get other players in. You would hope that Wood, Crews, CJ, Gore, and one more guy are enough to build around. Better idea is to think about trading Garcia Jr. Won't bring a big return but you could open up the spot at SS or 2B for a FA signing.

But we both know this ownership group wont

[IdahoNat]

I'd rather them sign Gore to a Strasburg level contract and have him be another Strasburg then letting Gore walk. I'd imagine CJ being the odd man out of a big in-house FA they don't sign given they drafted Seaver King with that possibility in mind and especially if they draft Holliday on Sunday.

[tomterp]

I'd rather them sign Gore to a Strasburg level contract and have him be another Strasburg then letting Gore walk.

Hopefully you mean the pre-2019 contract, not the post 2019 contract.  Cause the post 2019 contract didn't really work out.

[Smithian]

I'm taking calls on Abrams if I'm the Nats.

His value is at its highest and I wouldn't miss the mistake and less than impressive glove.

It would take a haul, but I'm taking the calls.

[Slateman]

If you're trading Abrams, you may as well trade Gore too.

You could hide a lot of Abrams' defensive problems by moving him to 2B or CF.

A move like that requires a ton of research. Probably more of an offseason move

[imref]

if we're trading Abrams, we're going back into rebuild mode.

[varoadking]

if we're trading Abrams, we're going back into rebuild mode.

Where exactly are we now?

[Slateman]

Where exactly are we now?

Whatever the Pirates and Marlins are.

Rebuild mode implies you have ownership that wants to get better and a plan to improve.

[Mattionals]

Everything feels very legion of doom anymore.

[varoadking]

Whatever the Pirates and Marlins are.

Rebuild mode implies you have ownership that wants to get better and a plan to improve.

So, we're in Purgatory...

[Smithian]

If you're trading Abrams, you may as well trade Gore too.

You could hide a lot of Abrams' defensive problems by moving him to 2B or CF.

A move like that requires a ton of research. Probably more of an offseason move

I look at it as a culture reset. When your shortstop is gifted but a comedy of errors and you're statistically the worst defensive team of the 2020's, I'm past ready to put a steady glove there to calm things down and give the pitching a chance. I'd also eject Garcia (the middle infielder, not the pitcher) in that scenario and put Tena in his spot.

Again, it would have to be a massive haul because even him playing out his Nats days on arbitration is real value.

I'd also be fine testing him out at 2B or CF. But I'm over him being short stop.

I just want to watch a team that is major league average defensively and on the bases. I feel like that isn't too much too ask.

[tomterp]

If you're trading Abrams, you may as well trade Gore too.

You could hide a lot of Abrams' defensive problems by moving him to 2B or CF.

A move like that requires a ton of research. Probably more of an offseason move

Gore goes first obviously, since he he almost certainly enter free agency before we're competitive and, like Soto, will likely command a haul in prospects from a "win now" club.

[Smithian]

Gore goes first obviously, since he he almost certainly enter free agency before we're competitive and, like Soto, will likely command a haul in prospects from a "win now" club.

I'd rather sign up Gore long term than Abrams.

You can quote me on this when he blows out his arm.

[Slateman]

Gore goes first obviously, since he he almost certainly enter free agency before we're competitive and, like Soto, will likely command a haul in prospects from a "win now" club.

Both of those seem like offseason deals to me.

Would be kind of funny if the first trade between the Orioles and Nationals was Mike Rizzo trading for MacKenzie Gore

[imref]

Both of those seem like offseason deals to me.

Would be kind of funny if the first trade between the Orioles and Nationals was Mike Rizzo trading for MacKenzie Gore

more likely that Rizzo ends up back in Arizona IMHO.

[IdahoNat]

I'd rather sign up Gore long term than Abrams.

You can quote me on this when he blows out his arm.

I mean makes more sense with Seaver King and potentially Holliday in the system. If Gore leaves, we have no definitive ace to be the heir apparent.