I'll add the Lile baserunning play Sunday kind of epitomizes the disgust point. Lile probably is the most pleasant and unexpected positive on the team this year, but the play yesterday was just so bad in terms of score, game situation, and use of information that it needs to be memorialized in the LOD thread.
The obvious is that Lile's run would have been only the 6th run when the important run is the 7th. The win expectancy from 1st and 3rd, 1 out, down 3, bottom of the 9th, is roughly 10%. The win expectancy when it is 2 outs, runner on 3rd, down 3 is 1.6%.
https://gregstoll.com/~gregstoll/baseball/stats.html#H.-3.9.2.5.0.0The win expectancy when it is 2d and 3d, 1 out, down 3 (that is, if Lile is successful) is only 0.3% higher than 1st and 3rd, 1 out, down 3. Essentially, the Nats gambled a .03% improvement against a ~8.5% loss. I think at the time the announcer said something like you can't go unless you are sure to make it. It's worse than that. you can't go even if you are sure because judgment is fallible.
That's just the pure numbers side. Watching the replay, Pereira cuts the ball off, wheels, and makes an accurate throw to 2d. It was a good play, but Pereira is probably about an average outfielder and they make those plays some of the time. There's no chance that the ball was going to make it to the wall. Josh Lowe is behind Pereira when he cuts it off. Lile is fast, so maybe it's one of those plays where the execution has to be so right that you it's going to work more often than not, but that can't be the standard in that game situation.
I have to wonder what the Nats scouting understood about Pereira and Lowe's defense and how that was communicated to Parra and to the players. Did Lile just blow through a stop? I didn't see what signal Parra was giving. If it were an isolated mistake, then stuff happens. But to have these dumb baserunning plays happen so often, you can see where disgust comes from.
