FWIW, I prompted ChatGPT to predict what happens with negotiations, and to provide a deal that would be acceptable to both sides. It predicts a lockout but one that ends rather quickly, before the loss of the entire season, noting that both players and owners have strong incentive to reach an agreement.
Deal highlights:
- Stronger luxury tax and tax aprons that act as a soft-cap (similar to the NBA)
- Salary floor requiring minimum payroll, with revenue sharing, with rules requiring that revenue sharing goes to payroll and player benefits
- Minimal changes to existing service time rules
- Some potential changes to lottery and international draft rules, but no details
- Improved health and safety protocols, including long-term benefits and retirement, as well as mental health resources
Terms of a plausible CBA:
Economic Structure
✅ Luxury tax with steeper penalties and additional thresholds
✅ A salary floor tied to revenue sharing spending rules
✅ No hard salary cap, but cap-like payroll management mechanisms (e.g., tax apron restrictions)
✅ Enhanced revenue sharing with accountability requirements
Player Compensation and Mobility
✅ Incremental increases in minimum salaries and pre-arbitration bonus pools
✅ Pilot or expanded draft lottery and modified international draft/bonus pools
✅ Potential tweaks to service time and arbitration eligibility (but not radical change)
Benefits & Protections
✅ Improved health, safety, and long-term player welfare benefits
✅ Enhanced pension/retirement structures
✅ Expanded rules around player development and agent access
Growth Initiatives
✅ Expanded playoffs revenue sharing (player bonuses tied to TV revenue)
✅ Tech innovations and fan experience considerations
It notes that ownership insistence on a hard cap would derail any deal.
