Author Topic: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025  (Read 3531 times)

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Offline IanRubbish

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #75 on: June 18, 2025, 01:00:56 am »
In a virtual tie for last now with the Marlins, through FanGraphs is projecting the Nats holding at 2 games over the Marlins with 70 wins when it's all said and done. 

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #76 on: June 18, 2025, 11:40:54 am »
In a virtual tie for last now with the Marlins, through FanGraphs is projecting the Nats holding at 2 games over the Marlins with 70 wins when it's all said and done.
I'll go with the same prediction that I had last year, which was 70-92.

Yay, my thinking is in line with the geeks over at FanGraphs lol.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #77 on: June 18, 2025, 11:45:45 am »
Yay, my thinking is in line with the geeks over at FanGraphs lol.

Their formula looks at run differential and strength of schedule, so it hasn't dropped all that much during the losing streak.  Before the losing streak, the Nats W-L was well ahead of what run differential would have predicted.  Now it's exactly aligned. 

But yes, looking like you might win this.

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #78 on: June 19, 2025, 11:49:52 am »
Their formula looks at run differential and strength of schedule, so it hasn't dropped all that much during the losing streak.  Before the losing streak, the Nats W-L was well ahead of what run differential would have predicted.  Now it's exactly aligned. 

But yes, looking like you might win this.


Awesome, should've put some money on this, a la CJ.  :mg:

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #79 on: June 19, 2025, 06:20:51 pm »
67-95 pace after today @ 31-44 (.413)

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #80 on: June 22, 2025, 09:45:51 pm »

66-96 pace after today @ 32-46 (.410)

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #81 on: June 25, 2025, 06:42:46 pm »
Still on a 66-96 pace @ 33-48 (.407) after dropping 2 of 3 in San Diego.

Further solidified our hold on last place in the NL East...

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #82 on: June 25, 2025, 06:53:49 pm »
Half the season gone. Not sure how many had this team on a 66 win pace.

Offline tomterp

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #83 on: June 27, 2025, 09:21:06 pm »
 :couch:

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #84 on: June 28, 2025, 09:09:23 am »
FWIW, our pace to 34 wins matches 2006 but is one game better than 2023. one reason this season feels so off is that last year's team was still in contention for the WC into mid-June. They reached 35-36 at that point.

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #85 on: June 29, 2025, 07:32:21 pm »

68-94 pace after today @ 35-49 (.417)

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #86 on: June 29, 2025, 08:41:07 pm »
68-94 pace after today @ 35-49 (.417)
36-42 down the stretch would match 2023 & 2024.

Offline imref

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #87 on: July 03, 2025, 11:03:41 am »
Currently 36-50. We've been playing .500 ball for almost the last two weeks now (6-6 over our last 12). If we keep that up, that would put us somewhere around 74-88, or 3 wins better than 2024.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #88 on: July 03, 2025, 11:11:13 am »
Currently 36-50. We've been playing .500 ball for almost the last two weeks now (6-6 over our last 12). If we keep that up, that would put us somewhere around 74-88, or 3 wins better than 2024.
the characteristic of this team is uneven play. That probably explains the frustration. Most of the time, they are above .500 (35-26) but they had 3 awful stretches of 1-6, 0-7, and 0-11, or 1-24. If they mature and avoid losing streaks, then they could finish even better than 74 wins, but another losing streak or two would overwhelm the marginal positive normal play.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #89 on: July 03, 2025, 12:59:54 pm »
the characteristic of this team is uneven play. That probably explains the frustration. Most of the time, they are above .500 (35-26) but they had 3 awful stretches of 1-6, 0-7, and 0-11, or 1-24. If they mature and avoid losing streaks, then they could finish even better than 74 wins, but another losing streak or two would overwhelm the marginal positive normal play.

Most teams, especially the good ones with strong pitching and defense, are much better at home.  No team in MLB is more than 6 games over .500 on the road.  Meanwhile, this team is slightly better on the road  (17-25 at home, 19-25 on the road).  Moreover, the home game run differential of -60 is 3rd worst in MLB after the Rockies and A's.

Team OPS of .703, ranks 19th, the highest in the Darnell Coles era and perhaps the "step forward" the team was supposed to take, even though still below average, and largely due to James Wood.  But OPS against of .766 is 26th.

The team's run differential predicts a record of 36-50, which is exactly where they are.  They were way ahead of that before the 11 game losing streak, which brought them time right to expected W-L percentage.  Fangraphs has them right now at 70.5 wins. 


Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #90 on: July 03, 2025, 04:27:54 pm »
Most teams, especially the good ones with strong pitching and defense, are much better at home.  No team in MLB is more than 6 games over .500 on the road.  Meanwhile, this team is slightly better on the road  (17-25 at home, 19-25 on the road).  Moreover, the home game run differential of -60 is 3rd worst in MLB after the Rockies and A's.

Team OPS of .703, ranks 19th, the highest in the Darnell Coles era and perhaps the "step forward" the team was supposed to take, even though still below average, and largely due to James Wood.  But OPS against of .766 is 26th.

The team's run differential predicts a record of 36-50, which is exactly where they are.  They were way ahead of that before the 11 game losing streak, which brought them time right to expected W-L percentage.  Fangraphs has them right now at 70.5 wins. 


they "deserve " their record, as their pythag and FG estimate suggests. It's just it's a weird way to get there. It's not a bunch of 7-9 stretches, or 6-10 followed by 8-8. It's super-streaky. The team's a super-streak. Rick James would be proud.

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #91 on: July 03, 2025, 10:23:46 pm »

69-93 pace after today @ 37-50 (.425)


Offline IanRubbish

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #92 on: July 04, 2025, 04:25:02 am »
It's super-streaky. The team's a super-streak. Rick James would be proud.


Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #93 on: July 06, 2025, 05:21:03 pm »

67-95 pace after today @ 37-53 (.411)

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #94 on: July 10, 2025, 10:26:46 pm »

66-96 pace after today @ 38-55 (.409)

Offline varoadking

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #95 on: July 13, 2025, 04:31:58 pm »
64-98 pace after being swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee this weekend @ 38-58 (.396)

Only the Rockies and White Sox have a worse record...

A 100 loss season is in play...


Offline blue911

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #96 on: July 13, 2025, 07:21:56 pm »
64-98 pace after being swept by the Brewers in Milwaukee this weekend @ 38-58 (.396)

Only the Rockies and White Sox have a worse record...

A 100 loss season is in play...

Looks like I might be closest to the pin.

Offline tomwvr

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Re: WNFF Predicts the Nats Record - 2025
« Reply #97 on: July 14, 2025, 04:15:43 pm »
Half the season gone. Not sure how many had this team on a 66 win pace.

Me