Author Topic: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover (Read 8911 times)

English Natsie · « **Reply #50 on:** March 30, 2025, 06:59:29 am »

54.00 ERA. HIghest, in the Modern Era (post 1918) is Jose Lima (2005) at 64.00 - come on, Pochey, you can do it!...

(could the first 100.00 ERA be up for grabs?...

)

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #51 on:** March 30, 2025, 10:44:15 am »

Quote from: PowerBoater69 on March 29, 2025, 08:35:40 pm

On honor of Colin Poche and his ballooning ERA, can we change the thread sub title from duck and cover to screwed the pooch?

this lets off Sims way too kindly.

Poche of course set the disaster up by leaving the bases loaded after K'ng the first hitter, but Sims walks in a run, wild pitches in another, then gives up a 3 run homer to Schwarber, and, because he needs to pitch to 3 guys, tops it off by giving up a single. Poche enters with a 50% win probability (2-2, top of the inning), and leaves with a 35.9% probability due to the turds he left on base. But Sims takes that 35.9% and drops it all the way down to 4.4%. That's the difference between bad and

Ribalta actually did his job initially by getting the 2 outs to get out of that crud pile. He's a 1 inning guy Davey pushed to a 2nd inning rather than trust the Lord. That's when Ribalta blew up, when he went from fireman to mop up.

Salazar was OK.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #52 on:** March 30, 2025, 11:05:06 am »

Probably need to start watching the performance of relievers and starters in AAA, maybe AA as well. Lara wasn't much, but Alvarez had a nice start OD. Rutledge was very effective yesterday (2 IP, 0H, 0R, 1BB, 4Ks). Acosta too in 1 inning. Adon was fine OD (1H in 1.2 IP), and Sinclair had 3 Ks to go with a solo HR. Rutledge I think is option 1, but I could also see a move where a starter gets called up and either Williams or Soroka slides into the bullpen.

I'm not too concerned about 40 man roster slots because if Sims or Poche is out the door (or Lopez, for completeness), then they have to be waived off the roster.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #53 on:** March 31, 2025, 05:29:43 pm »

Hector Neris was DFA'd by the Barves. I don't want to test this proposition, but I don't he could be worse than Sims. Don't claim him on waivers as he still needs to work stuff out, but I'd imagine we could sign him to a minor league deal with an opt out at the end of May. That way, he can pitch himself back into shape. I would guess he'd look at the Nats and figure that would be the easiest way to get back into the majors.

IanRubbish · « **Reply #54 on:** March 31, 2025, 05:35:27 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on March 31, 2025, 05:29:43 pm

Hector Neris was DFA'd by the Barves. I don't want to test this proposition, but I don't he could be worse than Sims.

Sims is making $3 million this year. Not a full play-the-contract salary, but enough that he'll be around for at least a little bit.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #55 on:** March 31, 2025, 05:50:04 pm »

You beat me to the Hector Neris idea. Was great in 2023. Not so great last year.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #56 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:09:28 pm »

Quote from: IanRubbish on March 31, 2025, 05:35:27 pm

Sims is making $3 million this year. Not a full play-the-contract salary, but enough that he'll be around for at least a little bit.

I think we have an interesting test case if Sims and Poche do not work out. The right baseball move would be to treat them as disposable, but if, as you say, they bend over backwards to not cut loose $$ they have to pay, then those guys will stick regardless.

That said, there was a lot of salary pushed out the door early last year:
Matt Barnes ($2 million, 5/9/24 released), Robles ($2.65 million, 6/1/24), Eddie Rosario ($2 million, 7/3/24), and Nick Senzel ($2 million, 7/11/24).

I would say Rosario and Senzel were kept way too long, but Rosario would have been gone earlier, end of May, had Wood not hurt himself. Robles, of course, did pretty well after he left.

Cot's doesn't have Poche's contract info. Sims was coming off of 2024 deal that paid him $2.85 million to avoid arbitration, so I can see how $3 million was his market value.

Oh, and looking at Cot's, not only did Finnegan sign for $6 million, he deferred $4 million of that.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #57 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:11:08 pm »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 31, 2025, 05:50:04 pm

You beat me to the Hector Neris idea. Was great in 2023. Not so great last year.

I don't think we have to offer him an immediate spot on the roster, which would be a plus. He didn't pitch more than an inning this spring, then got shelled a couple times by the Padres. He's DFA'd because they are activating Jesse Chavez. Even though last year was an off year, I think we'd view it as an upgrade if he pitched to a 4.10 ERA and could be used late in games.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #58 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:13:03 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on March 31, 2025, 06:11:08 pm

I don't think we have to offer him an immediate spot on the roster, which would be a plus. He didn't pitch more than an inning this spring, then got shelled a couple times by the Padres. He's DFA'd because they are activating Jesse Chavez. Even though last year was an off year, I think we'd view it as an upgrade if he pitched to a 4.10 ERA and could be used late in games.

Injury issue?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #59 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:18:44 pm »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 31, 2025, 06:13:03 pm

Injury issue?

not enough to go on the IL last year.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #60 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:19:40 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on March 31, 2025, 06:18:44 pm

not enough to go on the IL last year.

I was thinking cause he didn't;t pitch spring. Or was he a late signing?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #61 on:** March 31, 2025, 06:22:45 pm »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on March 31, 2025, 06:19:40 pm

I was thinking cause he didn't;t pitch spring. Or was he a late signing?

late signing. March 3.

Slateman · « **Reply #62 on:** April 04, 2025, 11:33:01 am »

Rutledge added to the pen

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #63 on:** April 04, 2025, 01:10:01 pm »

I suppose a Lord start for bullpen game will fill in for Soroka unless they can skip his turn with yesterday and next Thursday off.

I think a 5th starter will be needed Tuesday

imref · « **Reply #64 on:** April 04, 2025, 01:24:00 pm »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 04, 2025, 01:10:01 pm

I suppose a Lord start for bullpen game will fill in for Soroka unless they can skip his turn with yesterday and next Thursday off.

I think a 5th starter will be needed Tuesday

Zuck speculated Lord/Rutledge on Tuesday.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #65 on:** April 04, 2025, 02:27:30 pm »

Quote from: imref on April 04, 2025, 01:24:00 pm

Zuck speculated Lord/Rutledge on Tuesday.

they could spot start Shino. It'd be 1 week since his last start, which went well.

Slateman · « **Reply #66 on:** April 04, 2025, 06:52:28 pm »

Isn't Rutledge out of options?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #67 on:** April 04, 2025, 08:57:51 pm »

Fangraphs says this is his last

IanRubbish · « **Reply #68 on:** April 05, 2025, 12:21:35 pm »

Bullpen ERA of 7.23 ranks 29th. 18 K's, 19 walks in 23 2/3s innings.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #69 on:** April 13, 2025, 04:28:25 pm »

Nice debut for Henry. Avoid BBs and stay healthy. The fastball had nice arm side movement and the breaking ball looked good

Smithian · « **Reply #70 on:** April 14, 2025, 09:24:52 am »

Time for Poche to go.

It's early in the season. Let's churn through some middle inning arms. It's not like we're trying to find late inning arms.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #71 on:** April 14, 2025, 10:34:04 am »

Quote from: Smithian on April 14, 2025, 09:24:52 am

Time for Poche to go.

It's early in the season. Let's churn through some middle inning arms. It's not like we're trying to find late inning arms.

I think he stays until there's a second lefty available or there's a roster squeeze in the bullpen from returning guys. If Henry and Rutledge are lights out, then you might see a vet cut when both Ribalta and Law are ready, but more likely you will see Ribalta optioned and along with whoever is pitching the worst among Salazar, Rutledge, and Henry.

FWIW, Ferrer, Ribalta, Salazar, Rutledge, and Henry have options (Cavalli, Brzykcy and Thompson too). Sims, Poche, Law, Finnegan, and Lopez do not.

Slateman · « **Reply #72 on:** April 14, 2025, 10:34:45 am »

Yes, who is Poche's replacement?

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #73 on:** April 14, 2025, 10:38:26 am »

Quote from: Slateman on April 14, 2025, 10:34:45 am

Yes, who is Poche's replacement?

Andrew Alvarez? He's a lefty and pitching well. Other than that, it's Shino.

imref · « **Reply #74 on:** April 14, 2025, 10:49:09 am »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on April 14, 2025, 10:38:26 am

Andrew Alvarez? He's a lefty and pitching well. Other than that, it's Shino.

Alvarez has been starting though.