Author Topic: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover  (Read 13962 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline IanRubbish

  • Posts: 4414
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #300 on: August 31, 2025, 09:56:37 pm »
Yep. This is promising

Promising with a new pitching coach and approach.  Cannot do another season 29th in ERA and P/IP.   It’s not like some new arms with one good game and a 5.40 ERA will magically do better than
the guys with 5+ ERAs they replaced.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 13047
  • Sunshine Squad 2026
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #301 on: August 31, 2025, 10:02:33 pm »
Without a new approach that puts more emphasis on efficiency, attacking the zone, and adjusting better to being scouted, doesn’t matter who comes back or comes in.  The starters are all gassed from throwing too many pitches per inning.  It’s not just a talent issue, but a problem of all the starters working too hard to get outs. 

This team has the lowest launch angle in MLB while hitting, while having pitchers like Gore who give up hits with well above average launch angles.  High launch angles mean more foul balls which drives up pitch counts even for a power pitcher.  Low launch angles are a gift to the opposing pitcher and keep his pitch counts down.  Just another symptom of impossibly bad coaching from both Coles and Hickey.
I agree. Good they fired the GM and manager

Offline IanRubbish

  • Posts: 4414
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #302 on: August 31, 2025, 10:04:28 pm »
Starter ERA is 10.80 over the last week.  Let’s see the 5+ ERA guys in the pen do this when the starters aren’t pitching like they belong in the minors, then we can get excited

Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34345
  • Hell yes!
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #303 on: August 31, 2025, 10:04:43 pm »
When the overall team ERA is 6.88, you don’t need an article.   Clearly they’re coming into easy situations where the team is already down 5-10 runs. Beeter, Ogasawara, and Ribalta all have season ERAs over 5.50, do you really think they magically found their stuff today in a game that was basically over and Nats batters walked just twice while striking out 16 times?

Beeter hasn't given up an earned run in his last 7 outings, Poulin 2 ER in his last 12.  Rutlege 1 ER in 9 outings, etc., so we are talking about much more than today. 

You are hypothesizing that bullpen pitchers have much lower ERA's when their team is already way behind.  If true there ought to be plenty of evidence of this.  Well?

Offline IanRubbish

  • Posts: 4414
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #304 on: September 01, 2025, 01:15:23 am »
Beeter hasn't given up an earned run in his last 7 outings, Poulin 2 ER in his last 12.  Rutlege 1 ER in 9 outings, etc., so we are talking about much more than today. 

You are hypothesizing that bullpen pitchers have much lower ERA's when their team is already way behind.  If true there ought to be plenty of evidence of this.  Well?

Not hypothesizing.  It’s common sense.  When your starters ERA is pushing 11, a lot easier to come in 9 runs down and start an inning than come in when it’s 3-3 with runners on 2nd and 3rd.  It’s absurd to think that all these mediocre pen arms have suddenly figured something out.  This team is 29th in ERA and runs given up.  Like I said, let’s see what happens when they come into a close game.  This team hasn’t been in one of those in a week. 

When the staff in aggregate shows improvement from worst/near worst in the league K/BB and P/IP numbers, that will be legit encouragement.  Jackson Rutledge not giving up bombs after the starter already gave up 3 is not progress.

Offline IanRubbish

  • Posts: 4414
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #305 on: September 01, 2025, 02:16:52 am »
Bullpen ERA is dead last at 5.48.  But I get it, we have some small sample size fans.  So over the last 7 days for the pen, 17.8 P/IP, 4 HRs in 24 innings, compared to a league worst 17.5 P/IP for the season and 70 HRs in 489 innings, so the P/IP and HR/9 ratios are actually slightly worse than the season level pace. 

K/BB of 2.23 is slightly better than the seasonal pace of 1.96, but hits per 9 innings for the last week are .63 compared to 1.03 for the year. Basically most of the improvement is in BABIP, which is not sustainable. 






Offline IanRubbish

  • Posts: 4414
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #306 on: September 01, 2025, 02:51:44 am »
Beeter hasn't given up an earned run in his last 7 outings, Poulin 2 ER in his last 12.  Rutlege 1 ER in 9 outings, etc., so we are talking about much more than today. 

These are still teeny tiny sample sizes.    Outings are a poor stat because they don't tell you innings, not sure why you'd reference those and not the innings that measure the length of the outings.

Beeter has a .091 BABIP against, this is not sustainable.   He's got a BB/9 of 5.4 and a P/IP of 16.7 which is high considering his BABIP.  His avg Launch Angle against of 24 is nearly 2x MLB average, and suggests lots of foul balls and high pitch counts.  He walked 20 guys in 24 IP at AAA this year and is 26.

Poulin is a 29 yo rookie and has walked 7 guys in 14 innings. 

Rutledge has improved from earlier this year, but let's see how he does the last four weeks. 



Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 13047
  • Sunshine Squad 2026
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #307 on: September 01, 2025, 10:02:52 am »
So, three posts to say you don’t think this current iteration of the bullpen is any better than earlier in the season? We can agree to disagree

Offline nobleisthyname

  • Posts: 4646
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #308 on: September 01, 2025, 10:25:48 am »
Bullpen ERA is dead last at 5.48.

Does that include contributions from the bullpen at the beginning of the season? If so it's not really an apples to apples comparison. You'd want to compare the ERAs of the current iteration of the bullpen to that of the past week or so.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 50230
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #309 on: September 01, 2025, 11:06:43 am »
When the overall team ERA is 6.88, you don’t need an article.   Clearly they’re coming into easy situations where the team is already down 5-10 runs. Beeter, Ogasawara, and Ribalta all have season ERAs over 5.50, do you really think they magically found their stuff today in a game that was basically over and Nats batters walked just twice while striking out 16 times?
most of Ogasawara's damage was in his 2 starts and his first relief appearance. He's been mostly fine in relief. he's really only had one bad performance (vs the NYY on 8/26). A bit lucky as he's given up homers and walked too many, so there's reasons for the jury to be out on him, but he's gotten his job done 9 out of the last 10 appearances (14.1 IP).

Generally, I'm not sold on any of the relievers. Henry and Ferrer have shown a bit of ability high leverage and late innings since the deadline deals, and as you say the rest have been throwing mostly in blowouts. Guys like Pilkington have looked good until they don't. All that said, there's at least something to follow in Beeter and Poulin, and if you squint you might have another arm or two for lower leverage and middle innings.

I could see 5-6 useful pieces, which would be great, but I think more likely is 3 or 4. TBH, that's not a step back from what we thought we had going into the year with Finnegan, Law, and Ferrer, except that all of the guys we have going forward have multiple years of team control. Most have options, so that also gives flexibility we haven't had with the veteran heavy pens.

Offline welch

  • Posts: 19195
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #310 on: September 01, 2025, 11:52:22 am »
Just remember Poche, Sims, Lopez, Salazar. This bullpen is better. Is it good? We don't know yet, but consider how many innings they have pitched. The starters explode early, and, yes, they are pitching in blowouts, but look how early the starters melt.

Online tomterp

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 34345
  • Hell yes!
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #311 on: September 01, 2025, 02:39:52 pm »
These are still teeny tiny sample sizes.    Outings are a poor stat because they don't tell you innings, not sure why you'd reference those and not the innings that measure the length of the outings.

Beeter has a .091 BABIP against, this is not sustainable.   He's got a BB/9 of 5.4 and a P/IP of 16.7 which is high considering his BABIP.  His avg Launch Angle against of 24 is nearly 2x MLB average, and suggests lots of foul balls and high pitch counts.  He walked 20 guys in 24 IP at AAA this year and is 26.

Poulin is a 29 yo rookie and has walked 7 guys in 14 innings. 

Rutledge has improved from earlier this year, but let's see how he does the last four weeks.

I am sure the BABIP isn't sustainable, but that's not the question.  You said they were being so good because due to massive run deficits in games, that the success was due to low stress.  Or maybe to put it another way, they'll be worse in close/tight situations.  This really means all baseball, because if there is such an effect it would be seen easily in the data.  I recall BP did a deep dive into "clutch" many years ago and concluded there was no such thing - this was of course from the hitter's perspective - an examine of high leverage results.  If there is no "clutch", it leads me to think there is no great (if any) improvement to relievers' numbers in low leverage situations.

This is not the same thing as concluding that the Nats' relievers have been lucky for a few weeks, which could well be true.

Online blue911

  • Posts: 19020
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #312 on: September 01, 2025, 02:50:49 pm »
I am sure the BABIP isn't sustainable, but that's not the question.  You said they were being so good because due to massive run deficits in games, that the success was due to low stress.  Or maybe to put it another way, they'll be worse in close/tight situations.  This really means all baseball, because if there is such an effect it would be seen reasily in the data.  I recall BP did a deep dive into "clutch" many years ago and concluded there was no such thing - this was of course from the hitter's perspective - an examine of high leverage results.  If there is no "clutch", it leads me to think there is no great (if any) improvement to relievers' numbers in low leverage situations.

This is not the same thing as concluding that the Nats' relievers have been lucky for a few weeks, which could well be true.

Yet Win Probability Added attempts to do just that. Measure the impact of each at bat.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 69348
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #313 on: September 01, 2025, 03:26:25 pm »
Seemed okay in a close game today

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 50230
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #314 on: September 01, 2025, 03:32:23 pm »
I wouldn’t be surprised if there's a correlation between low lev relief appearances and runs allowed. The worst relievers get less important appearances. To the extent that Beeter, Ogasawara, and Poulin are average leverage guys pitching low leverage, I could see them out performing guys who usually get those innings. But that's still outperforming.

Offline IdahoNat

  • Posts: 604
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #315 on: September 01, 2025, 04:56:08 pm »
I wanna be optimistic about the bullpen next year with guys like Beeter and Poulin, but then I remember situations like we had in 2009. The team(and fans) went into the season thinking guys like Steven Shell and Mike Hinckley would be reliable relievers and both ended up getting DFA'd by May.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 13047
  • Sunshine Squad 2026
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #316 on: September 02, 2025, 10:16:42 am »
Relievers are random and it's dumb to project them a year out

But!

Rizzo had to pick up a few arms last offseason to fill out the pen. Right now, [insert GM] will want to make a move or two, but this to start

Ferrer
Rutledge
Beeter
Henry
Osagara
Lord / Williams
Beeter
Poulin / Pilkington

I'd like to see them sign one more high leverage reliever and look at a LHP but that is a lot of decent relivers and multi-inning options. Ribalta, Fernanez, Thompson hanging around edges if they do well in Spring.

I don't think they need to spend $6 million on middle inning arms this offseason like that did last year. None of those guys excites me as a late inning arm on a contender, but that's the start of what could be a solid pen admitting there is a lot of randomness with bullpen arms. Or it could all go to nothing with a meltdown in September.

Online imref

  • Posts: 51529
  • Rebuilding since 2022...
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #317 on: September 02, 2025, 10:21:38 am »
I think Ferrer and Henry are the only two you can count on for next year. Beeter, Poulin, and Pilklington are guys you hope that can repeat this year's success but who don't have a track record. Rutledge is finally starting to pitch well, but he's always a huge question mark due to health and lack of consistency. Ogasawara doesn't have a track record either.

Whoever is the GM will need to bring in at least a few guys, maybe bring back Chaffin?

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 69348
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #318 on: September 02, 2025, 09:15:21 pm »
Seemed okay in a close game today
Two close games

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 69348
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #319 on: September 02, 2025, 10:04:47 pm »
Don't look know but Rutledge has given up 1 run in his last 9 outings

Ten

Online imref

  • Posts: 51529
  • Rebuilding since 2022...
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #320 on: September 04, 2025, 11:14:17 am »
Best bullpen in baseball going back to August 12 (lowest ERA, BAA, and WHIP).

Maybe DeBartolo is a genius afterall?

Offline welch

  • Posts: 19195
  • The Sweetest Right Handed Swing in 1950s Baseball
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #321 on: September 05, 2025, 05:20:27 pm »
Well, best? At least much better than in the early months, as the season bled to death.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 69348
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #322 on: September 06, 2025, 06:24:39 pm »
Close games. Big hold. Henry grabs a big boy save.

Offline aspenbubba

  • Posts: 6353
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #323 on: September 07, 2025, 09:29:26 am »
Best bullpen in baseball going back to August 12 (lowest ERA, BAA, and WHIP).

Maybe DeBartolo is a genius afterall?


Small sample size. You are emulating MASN drop downs trying to make a pigs ear into a purse by highlighting a recent positive success.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 69348
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Bullpen in 2025: duck and cover
« Reply #324 on: September 07, 2025, 09:44:01 am »
Third best ERA and WHIP over the last 30 days.