The Weather (2025)

[Slateman]

My app is now calling for .1 inches Thursday morning. Kind of odd how a prediction of 16 inches just goes away

The disappearing NoVA snowstorm. Nature is healing.

[varoadking]

My app is now calling for .1 inches Thursday morning. Kind of odd how a prediction of 16 inches just goes away

Imref is gonna be so bummed... 

[The Chief]

So is Accuweather just behind then or are "the apps" using some other model?

[imref]

There are a number of different models out there, i'm not sure what Accuweather uses. The latest Capital Weather Gang update says little snow in DC with the storm setting up further south. East of Richmond looks to be the primary spot for snow.  This is the latest GFS from wxrisk on bluesky:

[varoadking]

Yeah...even the winter storm warning only references Eastern Henrico County now.  I have my fingers crossed that the Fashionable West End will be spared...

[Natsinpwc]

Cold here in Orlando.  57 and feels like 51 currently.

[imref]

wxrisk guy says latest models are increasing the snow totals. here was his first map last night:

[JCA-CrystalCity]

wxrisk guy says latest models are increasing the snow totals. here was his first map last night:

which does wrisk lean on? Euro? GFS? Canadians?

[Natsinpwc]

VARK needs a snow blower. 

[imref]

which does wrisk lean on? Euro? GFS? Canadians?

depends on how far out. Euro typically more long range, GFS as we get closer.

[varoadking]

VARK needs a snow blower.

Yikes...I hope whoever drew those lines was high when they did it...

The Weather Channel has us getting 1-3 inches...

[imref]

DT at wxrisk put out his final call match, bumping most areas up by about an inch from the map i posted earlier.

[varoadking]

DT at wxrisk put out his final call match, bumping most areas up by about an inch from the map i posted earlier.

Doubling-down...I gotta hand it to the guy...he's not afraid to be completely wrong.  Who is he anyway...Nate Silver?   

[Natsinpwc]

Doubling-down...I gotta hand it to the guy...he's not afraid to be completely wrong.  Who is he anyway...Nate Silver?   

It’s always within a standard deviation or two. May snow a lot. Or a little

[imref]

Wxrisk pushed the snow a bit east after the overnight model runs. Here's his final map:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/1ByavL6VTK/

Discussion:

Shortly after I issued the last call map the 0z NAM  came in  around 10 pm on Tuesday night and it shifted the  area of 0.5”  liquid  to the east by about 30 miles.  It also had less precipitation north of Ashland up towards Fredericksburg  and less precipitation in the Virginia Piedmont   =  Lynchburg Farmville Livingston and Charlottesville. There was some additional data which also supported a slight Eastward shift  - the  21z  SREF.
The 0z GFS model came out at 12am and it pretty much kept things stable like it has for the past four model runs producing about 7 inches of snow in Richmond and about 10 or 12 in Virginia Beach Norfolk Hampton Chesapeake. but again that snow is calculated at 10 to 1 ratio and because of the Arctic air in place when the snow begins on Wednesday midday the ratio is going to be more like 15 to 1.
And this morning around 2 am. Wednesday some new data came in which actually  increased the amount of precipitation in Richmond and an interior Southeast portion of Virginia a little bit so I think things have finally stabilized. 
Still there is enough reason to push the 10-in area of snow east of Richmond Metro completely

Looks like var may not have to shovel very much.

[Natsinpwc]

He may or may not need to shovel. My prediction.

[varoadking]

He may or may not need to shovel. My prediction.

You should start your own weather website...with predictions like that you'd certainly be right more often than this WxRISK guy seems to be...

I went to his page and he strikes me as a 35 year-old single guy living in his mom's basement raging against the establishment for attention when he isn't delivering for Door-Dash!

DO THE MATH! 

[imref]

You should start your own weather website...with predictions like that you'd certainly be right more often than this WxRISK guy seems to be...

I went to his page and he strikes me as a 35 year-old single guy living in his mom's basement raging against the establishment for attention when he isn't delivering for Door-Dash!

DO THE MATH! 

You've got him defined very well. But he's also generally very accurate, especially with snowstorms.

[varoadking]

You've got him defined very well. But he's also generally very accurate, especially with snowstorms.

Well...I guess he should have done the math. 

"Everything north and west of the black line is light snow and snow intensity is so light that I doubt if anybody north of the black line is going to get anything over 2 inches and that includes Richmond.

There is No doubt my forecast is going to bust terribly in the Virginia Piedmont and in the Richmond Metro area. Even worse is the fact that all the short Range model data have also performed very badly."

[imref]

looks like Williamsburg is getting some snow, but doesn't seem like more than a couple of inches so far:

https://www.youtube.com/live/zV8mWRV45Ug

[imref]

Son said they got about 5" in Williamsburg. I saw close to a foot in parts of Virginia Beach.

[varoadking]

Son said they got about 5" in Williamsburg. I saw close to a foot in parts of Virginia Beach.

We got about 2" in The Fashionable West End of Henrico County over the 2 day span...