Return engagement: Josh Bell & Trevor Williams

[Slateman]

Could Parker be packaged with either young or Tena for a young controllable hitter better than either young or Tena? That would be my ideal outcome here.

Cavalli and lord are going to need mlb innings this year as well

Maybe, but I don't think it would be much better.

I don't know why you're packaging someone who has pitched quality MLB innings in hopes of replacing them with someone whose ceiling is a #5 and a guy who hasn't gotten back on a mound for two years after TJS.

The time to strike was when Pittsburg was shopping Jones. Package Parker, Young, and House (or Morales and Susana) and go get Jones. But then you'd need to spend money in free agency and get a Santander or Adames (move Abrams to CF).

I don't see any reason to do that now. The rotation will work itself out. Come July, Williams and Soroka will be in the pen, on the IL, or on another team. Lots of season to get Cavalli and Lord MLB innings.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Williams got 2 years, so I don't think the plan is to move him. Soroka I expect to be moved unless he bombs both as a starter and then a reliever.

At least one of Herz or Parker will be in the rotation. As for the other, I'm not sure they are better off in AAA rather than as a higher lev multi inning guy. I will guess Williams slot will need more than 3 innings of relief quite often.

[madj55]

No, that's a waste. Particularly after what both showed last season. Put them in Triple A and have them work on other pitches.

Trevor Williams spent like five seasons worth of starts as a 4.56 ERA, and then makes an adjustment, gives you 11 good starts and suddenly gets an arm injury that is caused by velo/spin increases. There is so little chance of him duplicating it. There's only three options for Trevor Williams: On the IL by deadline. Back to being a crap  starter at the deadline, or traded at the deadline while they can get something for him. And the same can be said for Soroka. If he's actually healthy and productive at the deadline, he's gone. Hell, he should be gone before that. Or they move him to the pen.

On top of that, we're averaging about one TJS a year. You currently have four hard throwing starters in Gore, Irvin, Parker, and Herz, none of which have had TJS. So its pretty much a lock that one of them is going down with it. The point is that by May 30th, Williams and Soroka could easily be injured and one of those four could already be down for TJS. So we really don't have any pitching depth to spare here.

Irvin had TJ back in 2020. Point still stands though.

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

A couple of familiar names is a cheap panacea in times of diminished expectations, so welcome back 

[varoadking]

A couple of familiar names is a cheap panacea in times of diminished expectations, so welcome back

[Count Walewski]

OK, the LAC faction may have been right.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

They badly need to sell this team. Stop holding the fanbase hostage.

[nobleisthyname]

OK, the LAC faction may have been right.

Something I find interesting is that on the Nats subreddit the fanbase is still pretty evenly split between 2025 being a year the team should go for it and 2025 being the final rebuilding year. So there's a lot of fans who are perfectly content for the Lerners to punt the 2025 season.

In contrast this place seems much more firmly in the LAC camp now.

[HalfSmokes]

Something I find interesting is that on the Nats subreddit the fanbase is still pretty evenly split between 2025 being a year the team should go for it and 2025 being the final rebuilding year. So there's a lot of fans who are perfectly content for the Lerners to punt the 2025 season.

In contrast this place seems much more firmly in the LAC camp now.

You are allowed to sign players for 2025 that you believe will also be good in 2026. We aren't even eligible for a top pick in the next draft, so why tank other than cheapness

[nobleisthyname]

You are allowed to sign players for 2025 that you believe will also be good in 2026. We aren't even eligible for a top pick in the next draft, so why tank other than cheapness

Agreed. The only reason not to try and compete for at least a WC this season is if they're cheap. The core is ready now to be supplemented with veteran talent.

The argument I see for waiting another year typically is based on wanting to know for sure if Wood/Crews/Abrams are for real and what other holes the team needs to fill plus this free agent class not being ideal fits for the team. I don't agree with that argument.

[aspenbubba]

Would signing Bregman change everyones' mind?

[Natsinpwc]

There is really no advantage to not competing this year. They will be ineligible for the draft lottery. It’s just penny pinching.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Agreed. The only reason not to try and compete for at least a WC this season is if they're cheap. The core is ready now to be supplemented with veteran talent.

The argument I see for waiting another year typically is based on wanting to know for sure if Wood/Crews/Abrams are for real and what other holes the team needs to fill plus this free agent class not being ideal fits for the team. I don't agree with that argument.

There's a bit of a difference between tanking in 2025 and making small moves to supplement the cost-controlled core. I would not call the Lowe deal tanking, and I think Williams and Soroka are good value. It's just there's no long term pieces of high end talent being plugged in. If some of these players like Bregman / Santander / Alonso have misread their market and start looking for pillow contracts, I could see Rizzo making a move. In the meantime, a signing of a Bell and a Williams that takes advantage of their liking to play in DC to get them at below their projected contracts is a good way to round out the roster.

The Nats should get around middle of the pack performance out of DH next year. Not to get too caught up in projections, but Bell 2025 projects about 5%  below 2024 league average (.745 OP vs .760, and 109 wRC+ vs 114).* Add in Chappy handling most of the ABs vs. lefties (Bell's weak side), and I can easily see league average performance at DH. Contrast the to the mess last year (.690 OPS, 95 wRC+), and that's a big upgrade. About the only thing it probably precludes is an effort to sign Alonso.

in the near term, the team sinks or swims with Abrams, Wood, Crews, and Garcia. Lowe augments that well.

* those are Steamer projections off fangraphs. FWIW, the ZiPS projection for Bell is in the same ballpark - .748 OPS / 107 wRC+ (.256 / .334 / .414, 17 HRs). https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-zips-projections-arizona-diamondbacks/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Golden makes it sound like Williams is not a lock for the rotation. he thinks there's an open competition behind Gore and Irvin, with Soroka probably having the inside track on the 3rd spot.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/12/30/trevor-williams-nationals-contract/

So that leaves Gore and Jake Irvin as the only true locks to be in the rotation. There’s also Soroka, whom the Nationals signed with the intention of using as a starter. He is the highest-paid player on the roster at $9 million. Two spots remain for Williams, Mitchell Parker and DJ Herz. Parker came out of the gates firing when he was promoted in 2024 but faded down the stretch. Herz started off slow but looked like one of Washington’s best starters in the second half.

Should Parker and Herz perform at a high level in spring training, the Nationals could move Williams to the bullpen. If Williams outperforms either, Parker or Herz could start the season with Class AAA Rochester, getting more time to develop. The Nationals also have Brad Lord and Jackson Rutledge in the minors as additional rotation depth.

If Williams starts, then Golden sees him being used similarly to last year: limited pitch count, emphasis on pitches other than his fastball. That kind of gets to Slate's skepticism, saying the need to spin and throw junk led to the flexor issues after only 11 great starts. If they can get 2-3 months of excellence in the rotation this year, then replace him with say Parker, Lord, or Cavalli, how bad is that? I expect more, maybe double that, and think he should beat a 4.30 ERA.

[Smithian]

Josh Bell for $6 mil is basically nothing and he is probably our best DH option in a platoon with Chaparro. Trevor Williams is a good signing IMO.

Both those moves are fine in a vacuum. Same with Soroka. I like the Lowe signing. I'd have liked Alonso, but not making that opinion final until I see the number. Other than the Corbin Burnes signing, so far there hasn't been a signing where I've been mad Nats didn't get them at the number.

I'd like one more pitching starter but so would every team in the MLB. The offseason isn't over until Opening Day, still time for some interesting moves on the edges.

The Nations are going to win or lose next year depending on the improvement of internal players like Crews, Woods, Gore, Irvin. This is a less depressing offseason than last in that they've gone out and added some players who can start and not doom you. If they were tanking, Soroka and Lowe are not acquisitions they'd have made.

This isn't a "Go for it!" offseason but what I've seen so far makes me think the team can aim for .500+ and there is enough in the Farm System to make moves at the deadline if the situations makes sense.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This isn't a "Go for it!" offseason but what I've seen so far makes me think the team can aim for .500+ and there is enough in the Farm System to make moves at the deadline if the situations makes sense.

I mostly agree. I think they are still short of .500 but with the potential to surprise on the upside if Crews flourishes after his adjustment period and we get no significant fall off from Wood, Garcia, Abrams and others. Keep CJ out of the casinos might help. If Crews is a RotY candidate, then this team can be on the fringe of the WC. I don't know if you grab a closer for the 1st half of the year or roll with it, and I think a marginal upgrade at 3rd still is likely (a defender like Rojas / De Jong / Iglesias).

[HalfSmokes]

I mostly agree. I think they are still short of .500 but with the potential to surprise on the upside if Crews flourishes after his adjustment period and we get no significant fall off from Wood, Garcia, Abrams and others. Keep CJ out of the casinos might help. If Crews is a RotY candidate, then this team can be on the fringe of the WC. I don't know if you grab a closer for the 1st half of the year or roll with it, and I think a marginal upgrade at 3rd still is likely (a defender like Rojas / De Jong / Iglesias).

Fanduel has the win total at 70.5, 5th lowest in baseball. I don't think Vegas views this as a team that is going to do anything this year. Even with a RotY performance, I think we come up far short given the rotation seems to be a collection of 5th starters

[varoadking]

Fanduel has the win total at 70.5, 5th lowest in baseball. I don't think Vegas views this as a team that is going to do anything this year. Even with a RotY performance, I think we come up far short given the rotation seems to be a collection of 5th starters

Amazing that my prediction of 71 wins, again, is the Over!   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Fanduel has the win total at 70.5, 5th lowest in baseball. I don't think Vegas views this as a team that is going to do anything this year. Even with a RotY performance, I think we come up far short given the rotation seems to be a collection of 5th starters

let's see more runs by Baseball Prospectus, fangraphs, etc... before I think that line is more than a play on sentiment. The over looks tempting. I will take fangraphs over FanDuel at this point

[Slateman]

Golden makes it sound like Williams is not a lock for the rotation. he thinks there's an open competition behind Gore and Irvin, with Soroka probably having the inside track on the 3rd spot.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/12/30/trevor-williams-nationals-contract/

If Williams starts, then Golden sees him being used similarly to last year: limited pitch count, emphasis on pitches other than his fastball. That kind of gets to Slate's skepticism, saying the need to spin and throw junk led to the flexor issues after only 11 great starts. If they can get 2-3 months of excellence in the rotation this year, then replace him with say Parker, Lord, or Cavalli, how bad is that? I expect more, maybe double that, and think he should beat a 4.30 ERA.

I just don't see how you can guarantee a spot to Soroka over Williams.

I dont see either one of them being healthy by June.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I just don't see how you can guarantee a spot to Soroka over Williams.

I dont see either one of them being healthy by June.

i think they both have slots guaranteed, but Golden gets paid for what he writes, so his perspective is worth noting.

As for getting no more than 2 months from either of them, I think I would take at least 1 to still be healthy. Maybe in the bullpen, but healthy. Thing is, I don't think that's fatal with Parker around and Cavalli / Lord /Lara available.

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Something I find interesting is that on the Nats subreddit the fanbase is still pretty evenly split between 2025 being a year the team should go for it and 2025 being the final rebuilding year. So there's a lot of fans who are perfectly content for the Lerners to punt the 2025 season.

In contrast this place seems much more firmly in the LAC camp now.

Seems like the combination of winning it all in 2019 with Ted Lerner being in the twilight of his life and eventually going out caused the Lerners to lose any real passion or interest in the performance of this team.

They really need to sell already.

[nobleisthyname]

There's a bit of a difference between tanking in 2025 and making small moves to supplement the cost-controlled core. I would not call the Lowe deal tanking, and I think Williams and Soroka are good value. It's just there's no long term pieces of high end talent being plugged in. If some of these players like Bregman / Santander / Alonso have misread their market and start looking for pillow contracts, I could see Rizzo making a move. In the meantime, a signing of a Bell and a Williams that takes advantage of their liking to play in DC to get them at below their projected contracts is a good way to round out the roster.

I don't think they're tanking, at least Rizzo isn't. I actually like the Lowe trade quite a bit but I think it's notable that the best move of the off-season was a trade and not a signing. The Soroka and Bell signings aren't terrible in a vacuum, but they're in the same tier as all of the other signings made the past few off seasons, i.e., dumpster diving.

It's true the off-season isn't over though.

[GataNats]

If they sit one of Parker or Herz for absolute dregs like Soroka and Williams there should be anarchy

[KnorrForYourMoney]

If they sit one of Parker or Herz for absolute dregs like Soroka and Williams there should be anarchy

Williams was the Nats' best starter last year, outside of first-half Jake Irvin.  Really strange take.