A-Lowe-ha Nathaniel the Nat

[tomterp]

Have you seen how much yacht polish costs?

Plus the "cutting" pads themselves. 

[aspenbubba]

Yes I know it is ST but I’m not impressed with Lowe, either offensively or his defense. Is this the after effects of his failed arbitration bid? Probably not consciously but sub -consciously? 

[Slateman]

Yes I know it is ST but I’m not impressed with Lowe, either offensively or his defense. Is this the after effects of his failed arbitration bid? Probably not consciously but sub -consciously? 

This is pretty much who he has been his whole career, save 2022. Why did you think he only cost a random lefty reliever?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

This is pretty much who he has been his whole career, save 2022. Why did you think he only cost a random lefty reliever?

He's had 4 straight years of .357+ OBP, so .300 is a surprise. As for the glove, he was horrible in the 1st yesterday. That too is a surprise.

[nobleisthyname]

Nationals are ranked 10th in Fangraphs' projected 1B WAR, which has to be the highest they've been ranked at a position since they had Soto. The author seems to believe Lowe is likely to be traded after the Nats likely end up as sellers:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2025-positional-power-rankings-first-base/

The Nats are caught in a weird spot. They’re not quite ready to compete, despite an intriguing and fast-arriving young core. But Lowe fell into their laps this winter – the Rangers wanted relief pitching, hardly something Washington should be hoarding at the moment, and Lowe was expendable after a trade for Jake Burger. So Washington played the accumulation game by swapping a reliever for a first baseman, climbing the value ladder a rung at a time.

Lowe is the kind of guy who championship clubs need, but he’s not the kind of guy who makes you a championship club. He’s in the prime of his career and has been cranking out above-average seasons like clockwork since becoming a big league regular in 2021. If he’s your best hitter, that’s bad, but guys like him lengthen lineups. He isn’t as much of a bopper as his first base peers, but he doesn’t have a career .356 OBP on accident. He’s patient, makes good contact, and has enough power that opponents can’t just flood the strike zone to neutralize him.

If the Nats contend for the playoffs this year, Lowe will be a nice contributor. If they don’t, though, I think he might be on the move again. There are plenty of teams with championship aspirations and uncertain first base solutions. Combine that with Washington’s general willingness to deal – Mike Rizzo is an active and successful trader – and I think that Lowe is going to make an impact somewhere this year. The question is where.

[aspenbubba]

Trading Lowe at the deadline if the Nats become sellers would open up Wood playing 1B where he probably should be and then having LaViolette play RF and Crews to CF. The Nats could play Hassell in LF or Garrett.

[IanRubbish]

Trading Lowe at the deadline if the Nats become sellers would open up Wood playing 1B where he probably should be and then having LaViolette play RF and Crews to CF. The Nats could play Hassell in LF or Garrett.

Unless he gets seriously injured I'd be surprised if Lowe was still here after the deadline.  Should work out with the backlog of OFers in the org who can be moved over.  But with his salary and value as a trade piece, he'll be playing everyday until the deadline.

[aspenbubba]

Unless he gets seriously injured I'd be surprised if Lowe was still here after the deadline.  Should work out with the backlog of OFers in the org who can be moved over.  But with his salary and value as a trade piece, he'll be playing everyday until the deadline.

I have to agree and it will be interesting to see if the Nats draft LaVioiette with the backlog of OF's they currently have in the minors. Maybe Arnold would fit their immediate needs better though the Nats need more power than just Woods.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Unless he gets seriously injured I'd be surprised if Lowe was still here after the deadline. 

with the year plus of control, I think you could be in a Lane Thomas situation where they don't get an offer they like so they repeat the the effort to sell him next year. I expect that unless Morales is ready. Bell is more likely to be moved with a 1 year deal.

[aspenbubba]

with the year plus of control, I think you could be in a Lane Thomas situation where they don't get an offer they like so they repeat the the effort to sell him next year. I expect that unless Morales is ready. Bell is more likely to be moved with a 1 year deal.

The exception I take with what you wrote is that Morales won’t be ready this year or until the end of 26 if ever. The only logical move is to have Wood taking reps at 1B.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nathaniel Lowe has always known his value. Even when others didn’t.

Lowe, who was traded this offseason and then went through arbitration with Washington, sees opportunity with the Nationals.

Golden profile.

Kind of bombed his freshman season at Mercer due to distractions (partying?),so transferred to a JuCo in Northern Florida where he got his focus back.

Lowe was named the Florida junior college player of the year in 2015 and drew interest from other schools. He committed to Mississippi State, where he was given an opportunity to compete for the starting job at first base, which he eventually won. He performed well during his lone season in Starkville and believed he would be a late-round draft pick.

Area scouts and cross-checkers visited Mississippi State for sit-down meetings with players. Lowe never received any interviews. That same draft, the Tampa Bay Rays made his younger brother, Josh, a first-round pick. Lowe was on the phone with his adviser when an area scout for the team called him — he was going to the Rays, too.
...
When Lowe sat down with the Nationals for arbitration this winter, he presented what he felt was a compelling argument for the $11.1 million he was seeking. His Wins Above Replacement, for example, had held mostly steady, going from 2.9 in 2023 to 2.7 last year, according to Baseball Reference. In his hearing, Lowe had to hear why he wasn’t as valuable as he thought: “You can think all you want until you know what kind of criteria they use,” he said.

Lowe uses his 2023 season as an example. From his perspective, he had a strong year defensively — he earned a Gold Glove. But he had minus-0.4 defensive WAR. That same year, he hit 40 doubles and 20 home runs, including the postseason. But, again, his perspective isn’t the only one at the table. The overarching message was clear to Lowe: “The power trend” — he had hit 27 homers in 2022, then just 16 last year — “killed me on paper and with my checkbook.” Arbiters sided with the Nationals, setting Lowe’s contract at $10.3 million for this season.

“Doubles don’t pay the same as home runs,” Lowe said. “So even though I’m hitting more extra-base hits, they just don’t."

[Smithian]

I like Lowe. Love the pickup. Unless the Nationals just bomb this season, I hope they talk long term extension next summer. Good defense, good bat, not old for first. I'd try to put a three year contract on the table. Hopefully feelings weren't too badly hurt in arby.

[imref]

Quite the upgrade over Gallo. 

[NatsLSU]

Pleasant surprise so far.

[Natsinpwc]

I like Lowe. Love the pickup. Unless the Nationals just bomb this season, I hope they talk long term extension next summer. Good defense, good bat, not old for first. I'd try to put a three year contract on the table. Hopefully feelings weren't too badly hurt in arby.

At least someone was bullish on him.

[Smithian]

We traded for a 1B who consistently crank outs solid offensive seasons and looks to be headed that way again.

I really hope there is some conversation about an extension. There is no reason he can't be expected to be solid a few more years and he is good enough defensively I'm not worried about him needing to move to DH.

[aspenbubba]

We traded for a 1B who consistently crank outs solid offensive seasons and looks to be headed that way again.

I really hope there is some conversation about an extension. There is no reason he can't be expected to be solid a few more years and he is good enough defensively I'm not worried about him needing to move to DH.

Wood is the logical candidate for DH especially after last nites horrendous route to miss a fly ball that was well hit.

[Smithian]

Wood is the logical candidate for DH especially after last nites horrendous route to miss a fly ball that was well hit.

Which is why I'm more comfortable locking into Lowe versus I would be if he was 2022 Josh Bell and we all knew he wasn't a permanent option at 1B.

I think James Wood is young enough to really improve defensively but lack of improvement early this season is very concerning that maybe he isn't meant to be a fielder.

[imref]

New rule: Nathaniel Lowe must eat at Chipotle before every game.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

New rule: Nathaniel Lowe must eat at Chipotle before every game.

only big games. Can't have too many episodes of food poisoning. Even Chipotle runs out of salmonella.

[Natsinpwc]

only big games. Can't have too many episodes of food poisoning. Even Chipotle runs out of salmonella.

Son of a fighter jet pilot is tough enough. 

[Smithian]

I want to extend him. I know the Nats won’t. But I want it.

[imref]

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make: Christian Walker so far: .199/.268/.333.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sometimes the best deals are the ones you don’t make: Christian Walker so far: .199/.268/.333.

Lowe in the month of May:
.188 / .250 / .288.

Robert Garcia: 25 appearances, 21 IP, 2.14 ERA (3.12 FIP)

[JCA-CrystalCity]

all kidding aside, avoiding a 3 year commitment to Walker looks good, but Garcia for Lowe may not be the steal we thought it was. Right now, the Nats have a 0 fWAR out of 1B. That's 17th in MLB. Lowe himself is -0.1 fWAR.

I don't think there's a trade market for Lowe. I don't think any contender would view him as an upgrade.

Of the NL teams with > 5% chance of making the playoffs using FG's projections to date, the Reds (5.6% plaoyff odds,, -1.6 fWAR) and Giants (55.%, -0.9) have had the least 1B fWAR, with SD (43.9%, -0.5) also outfperformed by Lowe. It's mostly Arraez's D that's the problem, and I don't see them moving off Arraez; he's actually slightly above replacement individually (0.1) so Lowe's not a clear upgrade. Ian says the Giants more or less have an internal candidate in the minors, so I don't think you see Lowe dealt there. The Reds probably are too fringey to want to deal.

In the AL, Boston has made its move to backfill for Casas. Seattle could use an upgrade over Rowdy Tellez / Mitch Garver, but is Lowe an upgrade? royals have Pasquatch. He's had a down start, but it's not much worse than Lowe, and he's still making MLB minimum.

More or less, we probably are going to be stuck with Lowe at the trade deadline unless he kicks it into April levels again.