A-Lowe-ha Nathaniel the Nat

[rileyn]

Lowe needs 2 days off.  His bat looks so slooooooooow right now.  Not catching up to anything.

[Natsinpwc]

Dog days of late May.  In Seattle.

[aspenbubba]

On April 14th I started a thread "Grading Rizzos Acquisitions" I gave Lowe a C-. Got some flack from it and now I think I may have been overly generous.

[Slateman]

Lowe needs 2 days off.  His bat looks so slooooooooow right now.  Not catching up to anything.

Yes. And they need to not play him against LHP. This is where having Chaparro on the roster would help.

[OfftheBat]

Shoulda kept Garcia, so far this trade hasn't panned out.

[Slumpbuster]

Yes. And they need to not play him against LHP. This is where having Chaparro on the roster would help.

Lowe def needs to platoon w/ Chaparro now ( when Chap is not DHing……a DH whose only job is to hit w/
a .170 avg like Bell is ridiculous! ).
Lowe has been a vert good defensive 1st baseman as advertised. But the RBI ability he showed early has largely dissipated.
He has been a Strikeout waiting to happen for over a month.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Lowe has been a vert good defensive 1st baseman as advertised. But the RBI ability he showed early has largely dissipated.
He has been a Strikeout waiting to happen for over a month.

I wonder if Lowe is trying to hit homers. Historically he's a very good OBP guy with minimal platoon splits, but this year it fell apart sometime in May.

[Slateman]

Can PDJ play 1B? Because Lowe is dreadful and doesn't seem to give a crap.

[nobleisthyname]

Honestly playing his way into being non-tendered in the off-season. Can't imagine Rizzo will be thrilled to spend $11M+ on him if his performance doesn't improve over the rest of this season.

[nobleisthyname]

Looking at his underlying stats the only things that really jump out to me are his walk rate and BABIP are significantly lower than previous years. Everything else (hard hit rate, barrel rate, K%) are all basically the same as his career norms.

Lower BABIP suggests less grounders, and sure enough his GB% is the lowest of his career and he's hitting more fly balls instead. I think he's pressing like Bell was to start the season to hit more homers and be a middle of the order power bat.

[aspenbubba]

Honestly playing his way into being non-tendered in the off-season. Can't imagine Rizzo will be thrilled to spend $11M+ on him if his performance doesn't improve over the rest of this season.

He is under contract for 2026. He has no value at TDL and I don’t know what can be done with him next year   

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Looking at his underlying stats the only things that really jump out to me are his walk rate and BABIP are significantly lower than previous years. Everything else (hard hit rate, barrel rate, K%) are all basically the same as his career norms.

Lower BABIP suggests less grounders, and sure enough his GB% is the lowest of his career and he's hitting more fly balls instead. I think he's pressing like Bell was to start the season to hit more homers and be a middle of the order power bat.

the numbers you cite back up my intuition. On the bright side, that might still mean that a deeper team that's contending might take him on figuring he'd press less and perform more. could still see a deal with the Red Sox. The left field wall rewards lefty hitters who don't press.

[nobleisthyname]

He is under contract for 2026. He has no value at TDL and I don’t know what can be done with him next year

He's still arb eligible next season so not technically under contract, which is what I meant by saying he might become a non-tender candidate this offseason.

[GataNats]

Should be doing everything we can to sell him right now.  Had one of those lucky nights, but he is eating himself out of the league.  Guy has gained a minimum of 20 pounds since we signed him

[Slateman]

Should be doing everything we can to sell him right now.  Had one of those lucky nights, but he is eating himself out of the league.  Guy has gained a minimum of 20 pounds since we signed him

So, basically, you want to try and trade him when he has no value?

[OfftheBat]

Should be doing everything we can to sell him right now.  Had one of those lucky nights, but he is eating himself out of the league.  Guy has gained a minimum of 20 pounds since we signed him

Yeah I noticed his uniform getting a little too tight around his waist  . I wonder what his current diet consists of lol

[JCA-CrystalCity]

He's started to come around the past month. Since 6/20, in 99 PAs, he's .244 / .303 / .478, with 5 HRs. 8.1 BB%, 28.3 K%. 114 wRC+.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathaniel-lowe/19566/game-log?position=1B&gds=2025-06-20&gde=2025-10-31&season=&type=0

[Smithian]

He's started to come around the past month. Since 6/20, in 99 PAs, he's .244 / .303 / .478, with 5 HRs. 8.1 BB%, 28.3 K%. 114 wRC+.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nathaniel-lowe/19566/game-log?position=1B&gds=2025-06-20&gde=2025-10-31&season=&type=0

Unless there's a big offer, I see no reason to move him. The Nationals have very little in payroll committed next year and he fills 1B or DH.

[Count Walewski]

This kid is only 29 years old but his stats have fallen off an absolute cliff. He went from being a slightly above average hitter for many years in a row to a literal below replacement player. The Nationals almost HAVE to bet that he will bounce back in some way next year.

[Natsinpwc]

Unless there's a big offer, I see no reason to move him. The Nationals have very little in payroll committed next year and he fills 1B or DH.

At this point he will not be around for when the team will be competitive. Get what you can. Of course I can’t see any contending teams wanting him.

[Count Walewski]

You might be able to get more next year if he has a bounceback year, though.

I asked ChatGPT if he would trade Lowe or not and this was the response:

As General Manager, here’s how I would approach the decision regarding the 29-year-old first baseman underperforming in 2025:

📊 Player Evaluation:
Career Track Record (2021–2024):
WAR: 2.3, 3.2, 2.9, 2.7 — consistent 2–3 WAR player, solid regular

OPS+: 112, 139, 114, 122 — bat has fluctuated a bit but generally above average

Awards: Silver Slugger (2022), Gold Glove (2023) — indicates value on both sides of the ball

Age: 29 now, turning 30 in 2026 — not old, but likely past peak

2025 Performance So Far (as of July):
Batting Average: .229

OPS+: 96 (below league average)

WAR: -0.1

Contract Status: Under control through 2026 (arbitration or pre-agreed salary)

🔍 Contextual Factors:
Team Status: Rebuild not fully successful; contending window pushed to 2026

Ownership: New, cost-conscious owner less likely to eat salary or extend veterans

Farm System: Still producing some talent — potential internal 1B replacement in 2026?

Trade Market: You're a seller in July 2025, trying to extract value from movable assets

🔁 Trade or Hold?
Trading Now: NOT a good time
Stock is low: Trading him now likely nets pennies on the dollar.

No urgent payroll crunch: He’s not an expensive FA signing.

Team control through 2026: You lose nothing by holding him.

Reputation: Trading him now could look like admitting failure on your recent trade.

Holding for 2026 Makes Sense
Positive regression likely: Players with his history rarely collapse this abruptly without injury or off-field issues. No injury is mentioned, so regression toward career norms is probable.

Still age 30 next year: Reasonable to expect a 2–2.5 WAR rebound.

Veteran presence: Could stabilize a young roster heading into a competitive window.

Potential deadline chip in 2026: If he rebounds, you can trade him then for real value.

🔮 Probability of Rebound
Using comparable player trajectories:

Age 29 with four consecutive 2+ WAR seasons and 100+ OPS+ averages rarely fall off a cliff without injury.

Declines usually look more like 2.9 → 2.2 → 1.4 → bench role, not a sudden WAR of -0.1 unless there's an underlying issue.

Est. chance of 2+ WAR in 2026: ~60–70%

Est. chance he’s replacement level or worse again: ~20–25%

📘 Conclusion and Recommendation:
Hold him through the rest of 2025.

Don’t sell low — his track record suggests this is a slump, not a collapse.

Give him a fresh start in 2026. If he rebounds, he’s either a key contributor or a solid deadline trade chip.

Only consider trading him in 2025 if someone overpays based on track record — which is unlikely.

If 2026 arrives and the rebound doesn’t happen, you can reevaluate then. But right now, he’s more valuable to you than to anyone else.

[Smithian]

ChatGPT copying my posts, throwing in some stats, and calling it their own 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Key thing for me in the chatgpt assessment is the likelihood of a bounceback next year for a guy with his track record and the guess that this is more a slump than a decline. A 114 wRC+ over the past 30 days I think is a sign he's coming around. To me, it just looks like he had a lousy May and start of June. April was good, and recent performance is good.

The big red flag for me is the the Ks and BBs. The Ks are up and BBs down. Perhaps he pressed too much as he was "the man" veteran when the team looked near .500 and potentially contending.

[imref]

FWIW, in his last 15 (61 PAs) games he's hitting .211 with a .648 OPS and 2 HRs.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

If this guy is released in the offseason, then that's really LAC.