Mike Soroka: Our New Veteran Ace

[Slateman]

Other than Corbin, I don't think that's true. You can argue Williams in 2023, but he had a decent first half. The rest are more shuffled in and out.

You can be Ian and say they will play the contract, but I can point to things like cutting Matt Barnes and Zach Davies to say they don't do it for pitchers.

Which starting pitchers has he moved to the pen for performance? Corbin, Williams, Harren, Fedde, Balester ... all garbage. All kept their role as a starter.

Rizzo just won't do it.

[imref]

Mike Soroka...

[zimm_da_kid]

Which starting pitchers has he moved to the pen for performance? Corbin, Williams, Harren, Fedde, Balester ... all garbage. All kept their role as a starter.

Rizzo just won't do it.

Hey we brought Edwin jackson out of the bullpen in the 2012 nlds. Worked out great

[IanRubbish]

Way I look at this one, is if he's a 4.5 ERA guy as some project, he's a #5 and can be pushed aside if there's a hot shot not in the rotation (Cavalli, Lord, Lara). Maybe doesn't even preclude another vet signing. IF he's better, fantastic, and if he's worse, then just hope they will pull the plug.

If he's good, he'll be a Guardian, Giant, Phillie, etc by the deadline.  If he's bad and healthy, Corbin 2.0.   If he's bad and gets hurt, he's Gallo 2.0.  Lara probably needs a stint in AAA before a callup, so if Soroka has any takers at the deadline, Lara could take his spot then.

[Dave in Fairfax]

Rizzo already basically said they were punting again. At the Winter Meetings, when he told the MLB panel that the team was neither hitting the brakes nor stepping on the gas. Soroka-esque signings are all we can expect.

[shoeshineboy]

A complete waste of $9MM...

Seems like it. Not a good indicator.

[Lintyfresh85]

I'm fine with signing the guy... but I can't imagine any other team was looking to offer him anywhere close to $9M.... I feel like a minor league deal with invite to ST would have been a better play... or at max something in the $3-4M range

[Slateman]

I'm fine with signing the guy... but I can't imagine any other team was looking to offer him anywhere close to $9M.... I feel like a minor league deal with invite to ST would have been a better play... or at max something in the $3-4M range

Same. Even when he's not spending money, Rizzo is still overpaying

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm fine with signing the guy... but I can't imagine any other team was looking to offer him anywhere close to $9M.... I feel like a minor league deal with invite to ST would have been a better play... or at max something in the $3-4M range

$9 million seems high to me, too. I would have thought $7 million for a guy with back of the rotation credentials would have been plenty.

FWIW, MLBTR is very high on this signing for the Nats. They had him signing a  2 year, $14 million contract. They point out that there's been a number of guys recently who figured things out in the bullpen and then successfully shifted to the rotation, like Crochet and Lugo. They highlight the massive shift in his pitch combination, moving from a 4 pitch guy with more sinkers than 4 seams and a high % of changeups to a 4 seams and slider 80% of the time. To me, I wonder if you can succeed as a starter with just 2 pitches for any length of time. MLBTR views this as one where he can start in the rotation and fallback to the bullpen if there's problems. They also like his age (27).
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nationals-to-sign-michael-soroka.html

That came with a significant change in his pitch mix. In those nine starts, he threw 22.5% four-seamers, 30.8% sinkers, 31.9% sliders and 14.7% changeups. After moving to the bullpen, he pushed towards a fastball/slider mix, with 43.2% of his pitches being the former and 41.6% the latter. His sinker and changeup rates dropped to 10.9% and 4.3%, respectively. Despite limiting his arsenal, he was effective against hitters on both sides of the plate. Righties hit just .197/.306/.296 against Soroka the reliever while lefties mustered only a .179/.299/.286 line.
...
teams these days don’t tend to view relief success as any kind of reason to not try a guy in a starting role. In recent years, bullpen-to-rotation conversions have become all the rage, with guys like Seth Lugo, Michael King, Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, Jeffrey Springs and others making the move successfully. It doesn’t always work out, with A.J. Puk being one example, but even then the downside is pretty harmless as the pitcher just lands as a viable reliever as a fallback.
...
Washington can give Soroka a rotation gig to start the year and see how things go. If he struggles out of the gate, they can push him to the bullpen and give those starts to one of the younger pitchers. But if things go well, he can be very valuable for the Nats. If they are able to emerge from their ongoing rebuild, he can be a part of that, but he could be a midseason trade candidate even if the club isn’t ready for that step yet. Even if he’s pushed to a relief role, he could still be an interesting deadline trade candidate.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Just looking at the starters who have signed so far, Soroka is kind of in a unique spot.  Of the 1 year deals, Alex Cobb's $15 million is the closest to Soroka that's for more $, while Griffin Canning is the next below Soroka at $4.25. Almost all the other deals are multi-year. In terms of AAV, Holmes and Bieber are the closest around $12.7 and $13 million, but Bieber is a 2 year deal and Holmes is a 3 year, and both are special cases due to injury and conversion from reliever. You can understand why Holmes is nearly a $30 million more commitment, while Bieber is being paid to rehab for at least half a season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sign=signed&pos=sp

[Slateman]

$9 million seems high to me, too. I would have thought $7 million for a guy with back of the rotation credentials would have been plenty.

FWIW, MLBTR is very high on this signing for the Nats. They had him signing a  2 year, $14 million contract. They point out that there's been a number of guys recently who figured things out in the bullpen and then successfully shifted to the rotation, like Crochet and Lugo. They highlight the massive shift in his pitch combination, moving from a 4 pitch guy with more sinkers than 4 seams and a high % of changeups to a 4 seams and slider 80% of the time. To me, I wonder if you can succeed as a starter with just 2 pitches for any length of time. MLBTR views this as one where he can start in the rotation and fallback to the bullpen if there's problems. They also like his age (27).
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nationals-to-sign-michael-soroka.html

I want what MLBTR is smoking.

THere is no way any team is going to give Soroka a 2 year deal with his injury history. Even as an effective reliever, he missed two freaking months due to injury.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

as for his injuries, last year it was his shoulder. he's been down for elbow inflammation too as well as a hammy issue in addition to the 2 seasons lost with his achilles.

[Natsinpwc]

Just looking at the starters who have signed so far, Soroka is kind of in a unique spot.  Of the 1 year deals, Alex Cobb's $15 million is the closest to Soroka that's for more $, while Griffin Canning is the next below Soroka at $4.25. Almost all the other deals are multi-year. In terms of AAV, Holmes and Bieber are the closest around $12.7 and $13 million, but Bieber is a 2 year deal and Holmes is a 3 year, and both are special cases due to injury and conversion from reliever. You can understand why Holmes is nearly a $30 million more commitment, while Bieber is being paid to rehab for at least half a season.
https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/free-agent-tracker?sign=signed&pos=sp

Yea. You’re not going to get a decent starter for $9 million.  No way Soroka can up his innings to start the whole year. Even if healthy.  Probably a couple months starting and then to the pen. As the Phillies did with Matt Straham. Hopefully there are more signings coming.

[Slateman]

Yea. You’re not going to get a decent starter for $9 million.  No way Soroka can up his innings to start the whole year. Even if healthy.  Probably a couple months starting and then to the pen. As the Phillies did with Matt Straham. Hopefully there are more signings coming.

I still maintain that Rizzo won't do this. Or at best, he'll shove Soroka into the pen for mop up duty