Mike Soroka: Our New Veteran Ace

[HalfSmokes]

Rizzo dumpster diving. 4.95 FIP and a .4 WAR. Rizzo found his ace

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nationals-to-sign-michael-soroka.html

[Natsinpwc]

Michael Soroka coming to town. One year. $9 million.

[Natsinpwc]

He looked promising back in the day for Atlanta. Would have preferred Kyle Gibson. If he does well he will be fine after a year. Not sure why they would want that.

[imref]

Basically Williams 2.0?

[Slateman]

Michael Soroka coming to town. One year. $9 million.

https://x.com/byrobertmurray/status/1869842212894466148

Free-agent pitcher Mike Soroka and the Washington Nationals are in agreement on a one-year, $9 million contract, according to a source familiar with the deal. Soroka will be a starter with the Nats. First:
@Ken_Rosenthal
.

Honestly, this is worse than not doing anything. Soroka hasn't been an effective starter in over 5 years. He finally found effectiveness in Chicago's bullpen, and Rizzo makes him the number 5 starter.

On the bright side, Lord won't have to wait long to make his MLB debut.

[zimm_da_kid]

I like this deal. Yeah it's not a needle mover, but hey, doesn't look like we're trying to contend this year anyways. What this looks like to me:

1. He has one year of significant (more than this past year's 9 starts) starter innings and he was phenomenal. If he regains form we can flip him for something meaningful (look at the flaherty return for 1/2 a year)

2. He doesn't regain form, but his salary and relief experience allow him to be shifted to the bullpen to allow for more innings for gray, cavalli, lord, or lara as they become ready.

Either way it's low risk, has upside, and doesn't block our SP development pipeline.

[zimm_da_kid]

Also, just checked his numbers.

2.75 era with 60 Ks in 36 innings as a reliever last year. I'm wondering if he took less to come here as a SP because relievers with those numbers get 10+ mil a year over multiple years

[varoadking]

Rizzo dumpster diving. 4.95 FIP and a .4 WAR. Rizzo found his ace

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/12/nationals-to-sign-michael-soroka.html

Another Joey Gallo type of signing...what a freakin' joke...

$9MM...there goes the 2025 budget... 

[tomwvr]

we have a new bad starter. My god this team

[IanRubbish]

Basically Williams 2.0?

Sort of.  A lottery ticket that Rizzo's praying will pay off at the trade deadline, even though they usually don't.  Basically going to replace Corbin as the play-the-contract starter. 

[Natsinpwc]

Maybe someone to start until Cavalli is ready. Doesn’t seem either would be able to start a full year.

[Count Walewski]

Soroka is in the same boat as Garret Crochet was a few years ago: recovering from a major injury, teams unsure if he was a reliever or a starter.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Basically Williams 2.0?

Darn close. Coming off a good relief year without a track record of more than a few innings of starting recently. His problem was injuries, which is different from Williams when we signed him, but rather than a 2 year deal at I think $13 million, Soroka is getting $9 for one year.

I hope they did not make a commitment to him that he will start as long  as he's here. I would hope this is just, "We'll give him starts early, and if he's good, fine, if he isn't, it's time for Lord.

[Slateman]

I like this deal. Yeah it's not a needle mover, but hey, doesn't look like we're trying to contend this year anyways. What this looks like to me:

1. He has one year of significant (more than this past year's 9 starts) starter innings and he was phenomenal. If he regains form we can flip him for something meaningful (look at the flaherty return for 1/2 a year)

2. He doesn't regain form, but his salary and relief experience allow him to be shifted to the bullpen to allow for more innings for gray, cavalli, lord, or lara as they become ready.

Either way it's low risk, has upside, and doesn't block our SP development pipeline.

That's the problem. If you're not going to compete when you're talent is all cheap, then you have no intention of competing.

You're also leaving out a third option: He stays healthy but is crap. Then he blocks young players but has no trade value. So basically, he'd Corbin.

This is a low risk, no reward move. He isn't going to stay healthy. He will suck when he is healthy. No one is trading for Soroka as a starter.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/12/19/michael-soroka-nationals-contract/
Golden:

So Soroka — currently the highest-paid player on the roster — should be a significant part of next year’s rotation. He made nine starts last season, pitching to a 6.39 ERA, striking out just 4.9 hitters per nine innings and posting a 1.512 WHIP. Opponents’ OPS against Soroka as a starter was .856. The White Sox moved him to the bullpen in May, and Soroka thrived. In 36 innings, he posted a 2.75 ERA, struck out 15 hitters per nine innings and posted a 1.222 WHIP. Opponents’ OPS against Soroka as a reliever was .594.

The reliever market is much slower than the starting pitcher market. The Nationals, who non-tendered Kyle Finnegan and Tanner Rainey, have an inexperienced bullpen. At the moment, Derek Law and Mason Thompson are the only relievers on the 40-man roster with more than two years of major league service time, and Thompson is rehabbing from Tommy John. Soroka, then, could have fit in nicely in the bullpen, too. And should he struggle in the rotation, he could always move there.
...

Soroka’s pitch usage as a reliever could provide insight into why he had more success. His slider usage went from 31.9 percent as a starter to 39.9 percent as a reliever, per TruMedia. His fastball usage increased from 22.5 percent to 44.7 percent, and his sinker usage dropped from 30.8 percent to 10.1 percent.

[Slateman]

Also, just checked his numbers.

2.75 era with 60 Ks in 36 innings as a reliever last year. I'm wondering if he took less to come here as a SP because relievers with those numbers get 10+ mil a year over multiple years

No one is giving him 10 million to be a reliever. Not after his first year and he ended up missing 2 months. He didn't take less money. The Nats easily gave him the best offer.

[Slateman]

Soroka is in the same boat as Garret Crochet was a few years ago: recovering from a major injury, teams unsure if he was a reliever or a starter.

Not even close.

First off, "a few years ago" was 2023. Crochet had TJS in 2022. It's fairly routine. Soroka has now torn his achilles twice, along with a myriad of other injuries.

Soroka has not been an effective starter in over five years. He simply cannot stay healthy, and when he is, he sucks. Moving to the pen was literally the perfect move for him. And instead, we're doing the opposite.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, the relief thing is an option if he stinks out the joint in April and May. If he pitches well either way and we are out of contention, then he can be dealt. If we are a WC contender, then he doesn't have to be dealt if he succeeds in either capacity.

I'm guessing Williams is heading towards a bigger contract at more than $10 million per year over 2 years.

[Slateman]

Well, the relief thing is an option if he stinks out the joint in April and May. If he pitches well either way and we are out of contention, then he can be dealt. If we are a WC contender, then he doesn't have to be dealt if he succeeds in either capacity.

I'm guessing Williams is heading towards a bigger contract at more than $10 million per year over 2 years.

Except you know Rizzo won't do that. He never does that. No matter how badly the stater performs, he insists on keeping him in the rotation.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Except you know Rizzo won't do that. He never does that. No matter how badly the stater performs, he insists on keeping him in the rotation.

Other than Corbin, I don't think that's true. You can argue Williams in 2023, but he had a decent first half. The rest are more shuffled in and out.

You can be Ian and say they will play the contract, but I can point to things like cutting Matt Barnes and Zach Davies to say they don't do it for pitchers.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Way I look at this one, is if he's a 4.5 ERA guy as some project, he's a #5 and can be pushed aside if there's a hot shot not in the rotation (Cavalli, Lord, Lara). Maybe doesn't even preclude another vet signing. IF he's better, fantastic, and if he's worse, then just hope they will pull the plug.

[nobleisthyname]

I guess this doesn't preclude more spending this offseason but it still feels pretty bad that the first significant move Rizzo makes is another dumpster dive like previous offseasons.

[varoadking]

A complete waste of $9MM...

[HalfSmokes]

I guess this doesn't preclude more spending this offseason but it still feels pretty bad that the first significant move Rizzo makes is another dumpster dive like previous offseasons.

A team that is serious about contending does not make that signing. They’re punting another season

[English Natsie]

Three minutes to midnight...