Author Topic: 2025 Off-season breakout: Bullpen Addition / Subtraction  (Read 500 times)

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Offline imref

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Morosi says we’re shopping finnegan

JCA Edit - I'll be breaking out nice sustained discussions about discrete topics from the general thread. I suspect there will be action on the bullpen, so having one topic on bullpen moves makes it easier to track

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #1: November 20, 2024, 02:55:18 PM »
Good

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #2: November 20, 2024, 02:56:31 PM »
Morosi says we’re shopping finnegan
don't know what my reaction is. I assume we'd add some bullpen arms, too, rather than use Ferrer as the closer. At least I think he ended last year as the top set up arm for us. If we were bringing in Kirby Yates or another closer, then moving Finnegan might make some sense.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #3: November 20, 2024, 03:08:13 PM »
That's a pretty insane sell low

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #4: November 20, 2024, 03:14:11 PM »
That's a pretty insane sell low
Maybe wait until they actually trade him to react? What if he totally implodes next season and they get nothing for him at the deadline. He seems like a guy with decent stuff who is due for a bad season. Trade him now.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #5: November 20, 2024, 03:42:35 PM »
Maybe wait until they actually trade him to react? What if he totally implodes next season and they get nothing for him at the deadline. He seems like a guy with decent stuff who is due for a bad season. Trade him now.
Not gonna get crap for him now. Better off hoping he rebounds and sell at the deadline

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #6: November 20, 2024, 04:04:15 PM »
His ERA, ERA+ and FIP were all better last year than in 2023.  K/9 a little higher.  BB/9 a bit higher.  WHIP slightly higher.  He would be good setup guy for a contender.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #7: November 20, 2024, 04:10:16 PM »
His ERA, ERA+ and FIP were all better last year than in 2023.  K/9 a little higher.  BB/9 a bit higher.  WHIP slightly higher.  He would be good setup guy for a contender.
He's 33, wasn't anything special to begin with, and imploded in the second half.  He's middle relief, at best, on a contender.

Trading him now is a straight salary dump.

Offline imref

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #8: November 20, 2024, 04:13:09 PM »
Finnegan's final two months: 19 games, 19.2 IP, 3.07 FIP, 16Ks, 10BBs, 10 saves, 1 blown save, opponents posted a .789 OPS against him.

BAbip was .415 in that stretch so perhaps poor defense behind him was an issue?

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #9: November 20, 2024, 04:16:14 PM »
Finnegan's final two months: 19 games, 19.2 IP, 3.07 FIP, 16Ks, 10BBs, 10 saves, 1 blown save, opponents posted a .789 OPS against him.

BAbip was .415 in that stretch so perhaps poor defense behind him was an issue?
Stop with your facts.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #10: November 20, 2024, 04:17:03 PM »
He's 33, wasn't anything special to begin with, and imploded in the second half.  He's middle relief, at best, on a contender.

Trading him now is a straight salary dump.
I think it's called getting something for a guy who will be gone after the season. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #11: November 20, 2024, 04:22:02 PM »
Would make way more sense to gamble on him "finding it" in the first half of next season, like we did with Floro

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #12: November 20, 2024, 05:21:00 PM »
Finnegan in 2024 had the third most saves in MLB with 38. He had 5 blown saves which is way down the list. He did have a few ugly losses but overall most teams would kill for a reliable closer like that. With a closer the most important stats are losses, saves and blown saves. It doesn't matter if he puts a few guys on as long as he gets the save.

If the Yankees had Finnegan in 2024 they would of run away with the AL East.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #13: November 20, 2024, 05:30:41 PM »
Finnegan in 2024 had the third most saves in MLB with 38. He had 5 blown saves which is way down the list. He did have a few ugly losses but overall most teams would kill for a reliable closer like that. With a closer the most important stats are losses, saves and blown saves. It doesn't matter if he puts a few guys on as long as he gets the save.

If the Yankees had Finnegan in 2024 they would of run away with the AL East.
Finnegan wouldn't have been their closer. Or even their 8th inning guy. Finnegan is amongst the worst in baseball in giving up hard contact. He would have been annihilated in Yankee Stadium.

38 saves is meaningless. Cool, your team was in a lot of close games. Are you really going to try and explain that Finnegan is a better closer than Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, or Mason Miller? No, of course not. If teams thought he was then they would have given up the moon to get him last year.

He doesn't strike out a batter an inning. He averages over 3 BB/9. Of the top 20 save accumulator last year, he had the 6th highest BB/9, the third highest HR rate, and the 8th lowest strikeout rate.

He was just stupidly lucky in the first half.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #14: November 20, 2024, 05:36:34 PM »
I think Rizzo is not going to move Finnegan until he gets considerable stuff back. He's had the chance at 2 deadlines and turned down offers. now if Finnegan were in a package with, say, Young or Garcia or House for something worthwhile, then maybe we do a deal. A place like Seattle that's kind for fly ball pitchers.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #15: November 20, 2024, 06:06:32 PM »
I think Rizzo is not going to move Finnegan until he gets considerable stuff back. He's had the chance at 2 deadlines and turned down offers. now if Finnegan were in a package with, say, Young or Garcia or House for something worthwhile, then maybe we do a deal. A place like Seattle that's kind for fly ball pitchers.
He's already committed. Someone would have to blow him away and no one is doing that for a reliever who doesn't strike people out

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #16: November 20, 2024, 06:20:04 PM »
Basically, he's willing to shop Finnegan but his price is going to be so high Finnegan is not going anywhere

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #17: November 20, 2024, 06:36:20 PM »
Basically, he's willing to shop Finnegan but his price is going to be so high Finnegan is not going anywhere
Time to move him was the 2023 deadline

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #18: November 20, 2024, 08:09:44 PM »
Finnegan wouldn't have been their closer. Or even their 8th inning guy. Finnegan is amongst the worst in baseball in giving up hard contact. He would have been annihilated in Yankee Stadium.

38 saves is meaningless. Cool, your team was in a lot of close games. Are you really going to try and explain that Finnegan is a better closer than Josh Hader, Raisel Iglesias, or Mason Miller? No, of course not. If teams thought he was then they would have given up the moon to get him last year.

He doesn't strike out a batter an inning. He averages over 3 BB/9. Of the top 20 save accumulator last year, he had the 6th highest BB/9, the third highest HR rate, and the 8th lowest strikeout rate.

He was just stupidly lucky in the first half.

The Yankees would of killed for Finnegan. Holmes had 13 blown saves before he was replaced. Then not having a closer cost them in the playoffs. If they had Finnegan instead of Holmes the Orioles would not of even been anywhere near as close as they were the second half of the season. All those statistics are crap. Did he get the save or did he blow it, that's what counts.

And yes, in 2024 Finnegan was better than Josh Hader.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #19: November 20, 2024, 08:59:09 PM »
The Yankees would of killed for Finnegan. Holmes had 13 blown saves before he was replaced. Then not having a closer cost them in the playoffs. If they had Finnegan instead of Holmes the Orioles would not of even been anywhere near as close as they were the second half of the season. All those statistics are crap. Did he get the save or did he blow it, that's what counts.

And yes, in 2024 Finnegan was better than Josh Hader.

:lmao:

If they wanted Finnegan, they could have had him. At best he pitches the 7th. Weaver was dominant as their closer. Kahnle was fantastic as their setup guy. Finnegan was worse than Holmes in the second half. And they made it to the WS. What did it "cost them?" Not having Finneganwas not the difference between them winning the WS and losing it

Hader blew fewer saves than Finnegan. All that matters is getting the save, right? Hader blew fewer saves and had a better save percentage.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #20: November 20, 2024, 11:32:50 PM »
:lmao:

If they wanted Finnegan, they could have had him. At best he pitches the 7th. Weaver was dominant as their closer. Kahnle was fantastic as their setup guy. Finnegan was worse than Holmes in the second half. And they made it to the WS. What did it "cost them?" Not having Finneganwas not the difference between them winning the WS and losing it

Hader blew fewer saves than Finnegan. All that matters is getting the save, right? Hader blew fewer saves and had a better save percentage.

LOL, the only reason Weaver was put into the closer role for the Yankees was because Boone was going out of his mind because the Yankees were blowing so many saves. All of New York was on him to get Holmes out of the closer role. Weaver had all of 4 saves lol. Weaver also had 3 blown saves in the playoffs alone including 2 in the World Series.

Finnegan had 4 blown saves and Hader 5 but Finnegan had 5 more save chances so they were virtually the same. You're also comparing Finnegan with the best closer in the game.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #21: November 20, 2024, 11:52:04 PM »
Finnegan had five blown saves in 2024.

Hader had 4.

I'm not comparing because there is no comparison. You're the one claiming that Finnegan is better than Hader.

And Hader is not the best closer in the game.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #22: November 21, 2024, 07:21:07 AM »
Hater should be better.  Made four times as much as Finnegan in 2024. 

But look again, Finnegan was 0.9 bWAR and Hader was 0.6 bWAR. 

Finnegan gives up a lot of HRs. 9. Hater gave up 12.  Dude is seriously overpaid. 

I guess question is what do other teams Finnegan is worth in 2025 for the $7/8 million he will probably make? 

Offline Slateman

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #23: November 21, 2024, 07:51:10 AM »
Hater should be better.  Made four times as much as Finnegan in 2024. 

But look again, Finnegan was 0.9 bWAR and Hader was 0.6 bWAR. 

Finnegan gives up a lot of HRs. 9. Hater gave up 12.  Dude is seriously overpaid. 

I guess question is what do other teams Finnegan is worth in 2025 for the $7/8 million he will probably make? 

Finnegan's fWAR is 0. By either comparison, Finnegan is average middle relief who got go close games because there was no one else. And teams are going to care a lot more about the advanced stats and his utter collapse in the second half. Once he melted down in the pre-trade deadline, he was a worse version of Patrick Corbin.

If Rizzo is legitimately shopping him, it's to dump the highest salary on the active roster

Offline Mattionals

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Re: Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #24: November 21, 2024, 08:54:54 AM »
I hate to break up the argument here, but, serious question, who would replace Finnegan as closer? Who on the current roster would you want in that role? Currently, three relievers on the 40-man who aren't Finnegan are making arbitration. If you are shopping Finnegan, is that a signal you are signing someone from FA? I'm not advocating either way here, just asking questions.