Author Topic: 2025 Off-season - general thread  (Read 59424 times)

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Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #925 on: January 18, 2025, 01:17:07 pm »
With the A's making some moves, Nats are now 29th in active payroll, ahead of only the Marlins.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #926 on: January 18, 2025, 02:23:33 pm »
It's Josh Hader/Edwin Díaz money, and I guess I just didn't see him as being in the same tier as those two.

I think you're underestimating him. The last three seasons, he's accumulated more WAR. He has a sub 3 ERA and FIP, while striking out 11.76 per 9 innings. Though some of this is for an uncompetitive Marlins team.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #927 on: January 18, 2025, 05:22:25 pm »
With the A's making some moves, Nats are now 29th in active payroll, ahead of only the Marlins.
well, Parker, herz, Irvin, Young, Wood, Crews, and Abrams are not arb eligible. When your 3 core players (+ a 4th regular) and 3/5 (ok, now 2/5) of your rotation are pre-arb, that's going to be a low payroll. That said, when you are have at least a couple of positions that look like to be below average and maybe replacement level (3rd, C, maybe DH), and plenty of bullpen roles open, there's room to spend.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #928 on: January 18, 2025, 06:18:53 pm »
well, Parker, herz, Irvin, Young, Wood, Crews, and Abrams are not arb eligible. When your 3 core players (+ a 4th regular) and 3/5 (ok, now 2/5) of your rotation are pre-arb, that's going to be a low payroll. That said, when you are have at least a couple of positions that look like to be below average and maybe replacement level (3rd, C, maybe DH), and plenty of bullpen roles open, there's room to spend.
Almost like it's the ideal time for this team to be frontloading contracts for free agents

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #929 on: January 18, 2025, 06:39:30 pm »

Bennett Lehman / District on Deck did the legwork, tracking down a Bleacher Report article that suggests Yoan Moncada may be the most realistic FA to plug into the Nats biggest remaining hole, 3rd base. The article he cites does this for each teaam, and takes account of the budget, types of signings each team does, and the market for each player. The Bleacher Report article points out how the Nats are one of the few teams that could promise Moncada a starting spot. Lehman points out:
Quote
Unless the Nationals really believe in Jose Tena, or think that Brady House can be ready for a call-up before the end of the season, taking a shot on someone like Moncada truly makes a lot of sense for the Nationals. Spotrac estimates he would only command an AAV of about $1.5 million given how much his value has decreased, and this would be pretty much in line with the amounts that Mike Rizzo & co. have dished out to other players.

While I can admit that the cheap 1-year deals have become pretty boring over the last couple of years given that if they are any good they will be shipped off at the deadline, but this is one I would not be upset with at all. If Moncada does not pan out, then at least we took a shot without major financial commitment in an attempt to upgrade the position.
https://districtondeck.com/bleacher-report-thinks-this-free-agent-is-a-realistic-option-for-the-nationals-01jhxh3ytavb

The 1 year, $1.5 million estimate is based on a Sportrac estimate, that more or less looks at some recent comps and averages what they signed for.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/16234/yoan-moncada

TBH, I was thinking he's signing for much more coming off his last contract and factoring a 1.0 projected fWAR. The sportrac comps for Urshela and Rojas do not reflect their latest contracts, so I still think $2 million is more realistic than $1.5 million, but in any case, this isn't the $5-$7 million range I thought he'd get. I also wonder whether they'd pay the FA starter less than Rosario ($2 million). If $3.5 -$4 million gets the job done, then I think it's not an overpay and doesn't burn anyone if he misses time. Would not block House if you project a late August call up like Crews. Might be more of an issue if they treat him like Rosario blocking Wood, but House doesn't seem to be Wood at this point

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #930 on: January 18, 2025, 06:45:22 pm »
well, Parker, herz, Irvin, Young, Wood, Crews, and Abrams are not arb eligible. When your 3 core players (+ a 4th regular) and 3/5 (ok, now 2/5) of your rotation are pre-arb, that's going to be a low payroll. That said, when you are have at least a couple of positions that look like to be below average and maybe replacement level (3rd, C, maybe DH), and plenty of bullpen roles open, there's room to spend.

Helps to trade an arb-eligible player who's making $7.8 million this year, and to cut another who would have made $8 million. 

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #931 on: January 18, 2025, 08:48:36 pm »
I just don't understand why they need to get Moncada. Defensively he's not much of a defensive upgrade. Maybe he has a good season, but it's been a while for him.

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #932 on: January 18, 2025, 08:54:08 pm »
I just don't understand why they need to get Moncada. Defensively he's not much of a defensive upgrade. Maybe he has a good season, but it's been a while for him.

The shiniest turd in the dumpster at a bargain bin price?  A Lerner special!

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #933 on: January 18, 2025, 09:28:51 pm »
I just don't understand why they need to get Moncada. Defensively he's not much of a defensive upgrade. Maybe he has a good season, but it's been a while for him.
he's at least neutral defensively the past 5 or so years, so he's addition by subtraction on D. On offense, he was good in a short season last year. I think there's a lot of upside.

Offline IdahoNat

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #934 on: January 18, 2025, 09:51:08 pm »
With the A's making some moves, Nats are now 29th in active payroll, ahead of only the Marlins.
Wow that's amazing. We gotta figure out who we can cut to make it to 30th :devil:

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #935 on: January 18, 2025, 09:54:12 pm »
With the A's making some moves, Nats are now 29th in active payroll, ahead of only the Marlins.

Disgraceful...and a huge middle finger to the fanbase...

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #936 on: January 18, 2025, 11:03:34 pm »
Wow that's amazing. We gotta figure out who we can cut to make it to 30th :devil:
We 'd have to cut everyone we just signed to catch the Marlins. And they're probably trading Sandy at the deadline.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #937 on: January 19, 2025, 07:12:33 am »
29th is respectable. No one can call the lerners the cheapest owners in baseball now

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #938 on: January 19, 2025, 07:27:43 am »
29th is respectable. No one can call the lerners the cheapest owners in baseball now

How about when you weight for team revenue and ownership net worth?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #939 on: January 19, 2025, 08:37:33 am »
29th is respectable. No one can call the lerners the cheapest owners in baseball now
nah. It's like when you're playing hearts, you try to shoot the moon, and get 25.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #940 on: January 19, 2025, 11:14:13 am »
It's Josh Hader/Edwin Díaz money, and I guess I just didn't see him as being in the same tier as those two.
4/72 to the Dodgers. Not quite Hader/Diaz, but close

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #941 on: January 19, 2025, 01:02:23 pm »
4/72 to the Dodgers. Not quite Hader/Diaz, but close

Yep, you were right.

Offline Smithian

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #942 on: January 20, 2025, 12:57:46 pm »
That Santander $90 million deal with Blue Jays feels like something Nats could and should have beat. But fact no one else beat that maybe the industry is more down on him than we realize?

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #943 on: January 20, 2025, 12:59:13 pm »
Estevez, Yates, Jansen, and Robertson still on the relief market for experienced closer. Plus Finnegan.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #944 on: January 20, 2025, 12:59:43 pm »
That Santander $90 million deal with Blue Jays feels like something Nats could and should have beat. But fact no one else beat that maybe the industry is more down on him than we realize?
You're right. But ownership is clearly refusing to invest in the team

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #945 on: January 20, 2025, 01:00:34 pm »
Glad the Blue Jays got someone. 

And yes the Nats should have been in on that.  Team needs power. 

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #946 on: January 20, 2025, 01:49:06 pm »
You're right. But ownership is clearly refusing to invest in the team
Yes. It's possible that the Nats just aren't viewed as a one piece away team by the top FAs so they will need to spend stupid money to land a Bregman/Santander, but more likely they just aren't bidding.  It's one more year of "Let's see the kids fill holes." The downside is that Gore, Garcia, and Abrams are gone or signed to FA contracts before the window opens.

Offline Slateman

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #947 on: January 20, 2025, 02:30:37 pm »
Yes. It's possible that the Nats just aren't viewed as a one piece away team by the top FAs so they will need to spend stupid money to land a Bregman/Santander, but more likely they just aren't bidding.  It's one more year of "Let's see the kids fill holes." The downside is that Gore, Garcia, and Abrams are gone or signed to FA contracts before the window opens.
You have to overspend. Frankly, we aren't any worse off than the Blue Jays, and they're getting Santander for under 100 million. That should have been well within our spending ability. Don't waste your money on Soroka and Bell, and you're basically there this season.

And this opens up options. You don't need Jacob Young, so package him, Morales, and another prospect to the Pirates for Mitch Keller. Don't need Trevor Williams anymore either. crap, you could probably add another prospect and take Hayes off the Pirates. Give Abrams half a season to show defensive improvement, otherwise move him to another position and play Nunez.

Offline rbw5t

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #948 on: January 20, 2025, 03:07:35 pm »
Not being in on Santander for $90M feels like a huge middle finger to the fans. He was an easy fit here, switch hitting power, moves Young to 4th OF, late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner role. 29th in payroll is an embarrassment in a market like DC.  They really need to sell the team if they have no willingness to pay for a competitive product. Maybe we need a “sell the team” chant at the the upcoming hot stove, just the Pirates fans did.

I also worry that the Stras handling might make FAs less willing to sign here. They can solve that of course, but it means overpaying. If so, that’s a cost they saddled themselves with by being cheap jerks.

Offline imref

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Re: 2025 Off-season - general thread
« Reply #949 on: January 20, 2025, 03:50:02 pm »
Not being in on Santander for $90M feels like a huge middle finger to the fans. He was an easy fit here, switch hitting power, moves Young to 4th OF, late inning defensive replacement and pinch runner role. 29th in payroll is an embarrassment in a market like DC.  They really need to sell the team if they have no willingness to pay for a competitive product. Maybe we need a “sell the team” chant at the the upcoming hot stove, just the Pirates fans did.

I also worry that the Stras handling might make FAs less willing to sign here. They can solve that of course, but it means overpaying. If so, that’s a cost they saddled themselves with by being cheap jerks.
:clap:

Seems obvious 2025 is just going to be a development year versus one in which we try to compete for a playoff spot.