Author Topic: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?  (Read 11126 times)

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Online imref

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #25 on: September 20, 2024, 12:32:36 pm »
Wow, Chico and Mock in the house.  I wonder what Garrett Mock is up to these days.  PhD in particle physics? F-35 pilot?  Sanskrit literature expert?
Outside Sales and Account Manager with Hajoca-Moore Supply in Humble, Texas.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/garrett-mock-a820434b

Online imref

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #26 on: September 20, 2024, 12:36:39 pm »
I'd go a little further. I think the deadline trades in 2021 were not so much dumping salary as they were dumping expiring assets for some quick help, or what Rizzo referred to as a reload and not a rebuild. Only real exception to that was Turner, who would have had utility in 2022 before walking. Most of the trade targets were quick to the majors guys who were intended to surround Soto and Bell, as well as a not yet terminally bad Corbin and a Stras recovered from TOS. Thomas, Ruiz, Gray, Thompson, and Adams were in fact quick to the majors "reload" types, while other guys got derailed by injuries or, in the case of the extra pieces in the Turner / Scherzer deal, were not as good as they seemed in the dodgers system. IT was after 2021, with the realization that they would not be good while Soto was under team control and that he was not giving a discount to them, that they started making more "rebuild" moves and dealing for minor leaguers a few years away.
True, we also had an expectation that Robles would be a top-tier CF and that Kieboom would evolve into a legit CI. We had Fedde pegged to be a top of the rotation starter, and Luis Garcia was on the cusp as well.  The pieces were in place for a reload but for a variety of reasons it didn't happen. I just don't accept that we tanked in 2020 and 2021. The real blowup happened when we traded Soto.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #27 on: September 20, 2024, 02:13:54 pm »
Outside Sales and Account Manager with Hajoca-Moore Supply in Humble, Texas.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/garrett-mock-a820434b

That is quite the find.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #28 on: September 20, 2024, 03:42:13 pm »
Hey, Ryan Church could rake...as long as it was all fastballs all the time.  He hit some nukes.

I was always a fan.  Even felt a little badly for the guy when he struck out as a Pirate in the Stras debut game.

Offline OfftheBat

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« Reply #29 on: September 25, 2024, 11:47:03 am »
Feel like this could be its own topic, but ownership's unwillingness to spend seems to coincide with the farm system bottoming out.

Realstically, whom would you like to have spent on the last three years? There are some guys, but I just dont see a realistic combination of free agents that would have made this team a playoff team in 2022 or 2023. Combine that with their desire to sell and it was easy to just cut payroll.

If the trend continues this offseason, it will likely result in significant pushback by fans. Already has, to some extent. In the competitive years, the Nats were regularly drawing 30K a game or more. Now its down to 24K. MASN subscriptions are down as well. If they just spend on Candelario and Jesse Winker types, then I would expect attendance to drop more. Or at least stay in that lower realm.


In the last three years? No one except for Chapman at 3B, to get him ready for 2025 when we're allegedly going to compete, I guess.
I don't trust Tena at 3B, and Lipscomb sucks offensively.

This Winter I'd spend on a solid SP but obviously those won't come cheap.

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #30 on: September 25, 2024, 11:48:37 am »
Basically there are two theories about why the Nationals have not spent big money on FAs since 2019:

(1) Lerners are cheap
(2) It makes no sense to spend big money on FAs in rebuilding years

We have not been able to test these hypotheses because the Nationals have not really been in a place where these two approaches lead to different decisions. Both theories predict the exact same behavior for the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Washington Nationals. Now, finally at last, each theory predicts something different for the upcoming offseason. We will know soon, within just a few months.

Yes, that sums it up quite nicely! We'll see what "Mini-Me" has in store for us this Winter.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #31 on: September 25, 2024, 12:30:51 pm »
Basically there are two theories about why the Nationals have not spent big money on FAs since 2019:

(1) Lerners are cheap
(2) It makes no sense to spend big money on FAs in rebuilding years

We have not been able to test these hypotheses because the Nationals have not really been in a place where these two approaches lead to different decisions. Both theories predict the exact same behavior for the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Washington Nationals. Now, finally at last, each theory predicts something different for the upcoming offseason. We will know soon, within just a few months.
Both can be true,  Now we will see,  No reason to go crazy yet but they have some holes to fill and money to spend. 

Offline Smithian

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #32 on: September 25, 2024, 04:54:17 pm »
Basically there are two theories about why the Nationals have not spent big money on FAs since 2019:

(1) Lerners are cheap
(2) It makes no sense to spend big money on FAs in rebuilding years

We have not been able to test these hypotheses because the Nationals have not really been in a place where these two approaches lead to different decisions. Both theories predict the exact same behavior for the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Washington Nationals. Now, finally at last, each theory predicts something different for the upcoming offseason. We will know soon, within just a few months.
In hindsight, I have to constantly remind myself the Nationals didn't punt going into 2021. No one knw Corbin and Robles 2020 seasons were the start of collapse, we didn't realize how bad the Strasburg injury was, and the Josh Bell was a nice move to beef up the order.

As I've posted many times, I think in hindsight it was pretty clear Rizzo approached the 2021 deadline thinking he was going to load up again to make a real run at another deep playoff run before Soto contract was done. The Dodgers trade makes sense in that fashion. But instead the Lerners pulled their financial support for the team.

The past three offseasons have been obvious tank jobs. But going 2021 is pretty understandable in hindsight. Doesn't help everything that could go wrong in the minors did go wrong.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #33 on: September 25, 2024, 05:00:35 pm »
In hindsight, I have to constantly remind myself the Nationals didn't punt going into 2021. No one knw Corbin and Robles 2020 seasons were the start of collapse, we didn't realize how bad the Strasburg injury was, and the Josh Bell was a nice move to beef up the order.

As I've posted many times, I think in hindsight it was pretty clear Rizzo approached the 2021 deadline thinking he was going to load up again to make a real run at another deep playoff run before Soto contract was done. The Dodgers trade makes sense in that fashion. But instead the Lerners pulled their financial support for the team.

The past three offseasons have been obvious tank jobs. But going 2021 is pretty understandable in hindsight. Doesn't help everything that could go wrong in the minors did go wrong.

We’ve known for a long time that Rizzo is not a good amateur scout and that our system is not great at helping players maximized their potential. The minors producing far less than expected should have been expected

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #34 on: September 25, 2024, 08:26:17 pm »
What really hurt the system's productivity, in order of hurt, was Robles dropping below his rookie year rather than building, Kieboom being just a PCL flash in the pan, and Fedde/Ross/Voth showing nothing after 2019. Garcia's slow development gets an honorable mention. So much prospect fail.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #35 on: September 25, 2024, 11:44:36 pm »
What really hurt the system's productivity, in order of hurt, was Robles dropping below his rookie year rather than building, Kieboom being just a PCL flash in the pan, and Fedde/Ross/Voth showing nothing after 2019. Garcia's slow development gets an honorable mention. So much prospect fail.

It would help if we had a GM who had an eye for talent, not man crushes on 19 year olds with "tools". 

Offline zoom

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #36 on: September 26, 2024, 05:28:29 am »
If you believe Galdi and there is disagreements between the Lerner family (to sell or not), this could be a disappointing off-season.   This current situation makes the team more attractive (payroll wise) to sell and has a few exciting young prospects.  But disagreements on sell or not could prohibit FA additions.   

Personally, I can't help but wonder if resigning the current staff indicates leaning towards selling.   

Offline Smithian

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #37 on: September 26, 2024, 08:29:45 am »
We’ve known for a long time that Rizzo is not a good amateur scout and that our system is not great at helping players maximized their potential. The minors producing far less than expected should have been expected
This board has had this argument a hundred times, but my opinion is the 2010's were fueled by Rizzo trades where he traded meh parts for good or flipped meh veterans for good pieces (Souza for Turner, random parts for late game relievers, Gio, Span, Ramos, Kendrick) and while he doesn't get lots of credit for Strasburg & Harper, his staff did take a chance on Anthony Rendon and they found Juan Soto. He wasn't perfect that decade, but he had a high batting average.

I do think things got really stale in the late 2010's and clearly mistakes were made coming out of 2019 and over the next 18-24 months.

I have gained a bit of faith in Rizzo past couple years. I think he made the best of an awful situation with Juan Soto and our system has undeniably gotten better after being laughably bad at the beginning of this decade. He owns the declines but, for whatever reason, he wasn't fired and it seems he has gotten off the mat and had things going the right direction again. I have some faith. I really liked this deadline.

Offline blue911

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #38 on: September 26, 2024, 05:11:40 pm »
We’ve known for a long time that Rizzo is not a good amateur scout and that our system is not great at helping players maximized their potential. The minors producing far less than expected should have been expected

Which only reinforces the stupidity of drafting Elijah Green.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #39 on: September 26, 2024, 06:09:13 pm »
Which only reinforces the stupidity of drafting Elijah Green.
Sure but how do you explain James Wood progressing so well since he came to the Nats system?  Or how about Juan Soto who they developed from a young age?  Yes I know he’s not the athletic type guy that Green is. All GMs have draft failures. The pitching misses bother me more. Hope Cavalli can bounce back.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #40 on: September 26, 2024, 06:09:45 pm »
This board has had this argument a hundred times, but my opinion is the 2010's were fueled by Rizzo trades where he traded meh parts for good or flipped meh veterans for good pieces (Souza for Turner, random parts for late game relievers, Gio, Span, Ramos, Kendrick) and while he doesn't get lots of credit for Strasburg & Harper, his staff did take a chance on Anthony Rendon and they found Juan Soto. He wasn't perfect that decade, but he had a high batting average.

I do think things got really stale in the late 2010's and clearly mistakes were made coming out of 2019 and over the next 18-24 months.

I have gained a bit of faith in Rizzo past couple years. I think he made the best of an awful situation with Juan Soto and our system has undeniably gotten better after being laughably bad at the beginning of this decade. He owns the declines but, for whatever reason, he wasn't fired and it seems he has gotten off the mat and had things going the right direction again. I have some faith. I really liked this deadline.
Right, he's a good enough scout that he acquired talent that other teams wanted to trade for.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #41 on: September 26, 2024, 06:13:44 pm »
If you believe Galdi and there is disagreements between the Lerner family (to sell or not), this could be a disappointing off-season.   This current situation makes the team more attractive (payroll wise) to sell and has a few exciting young prospects.  But disagreements on sell or not could prohibit FA additions.   

Personally, I can't help but wonder if resigning the current staff indicates leaning towards selling.
Can you expand on this? Who are his sources?  Etc. Kind of makes sense. Who wants to stay in and can they take control?  My preference is that they sell of course but you never know what you might end up with.

Offline zoom

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #42 on: September 26, 2024, 08:30:09 pm »
It was mentioned on NatChat Pod a few times this year.   I can't recall if Zuckerman or Galdi brought it up.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #43 on: September 27, 2024, 10:42:02 am »
Right, he's a good enough scout that he acquired talent that other teams wanted to trade for.
You can't blame Rizzo for everything bad then wave away trades that brought back James Wood, Denard Span, Trea Turner, and Wilson Ramos.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #44 on: September 27, 2024, 10:42:57 am »
Can you expand on this? Who are his sources?  Etc. Kind of makes sense. Who wants to stay in and can they take control?  My preference is that they sell of course but you never know what you might end up with.
The Nats Chat podcast I think the day before CJ Abrams got demoted jumps into that. Go and look and around hat date in the descriptions and you'll see the podcast where Galdi and Zuck kick around the topic.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #45 on: September 27, 2024, 11:16:34 am »
The Nats Chat podcast I think the day before CJ Abrams got demoted jumps into that. Go and look and around hat date in the descriptions and you'll see the podcast where Galdi and Zuck kick around the topic.
Thanks. I will try and check that out. I guess we will learn more in the off-season.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #46 on: September 27, 2024, 11:21:57 am »
You can't blame Rizzo for everything bad then wave away trades that brought back James Wood, Denard Span, Trea Turner, and Wilson Ramos.
Agree. Not sure how much is relevant going forward. Is he the right guy for 2025 and beyond. Keeping the coaches doesn’t seem a good sign but we don’t know if he had any freedom there.

Online imref

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #47 on: September 27, 2024, 01:44:09 pm »
You can't blame Rizzo for everything bad then wave away trades that brought back James Wood, Denard Span, Trea Turner, and Wilson Ramos.
and a lot more if you add in the bullpen arms that he acquired over the years, and of course, the Gio trade.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?
« Reply #48 on: September 27, 2024, 02:50:37 pm »
You can't blame Rizzo for everything bad then wave away trades that brought back James Wood, Denard Span, Trea Turner, and Wilson Ramos.

Rizzo has been solid in terms of trades.   However, he drafts based on physical appearance and tools, which has led to a terrible string of high draft pick pitching busts.  Meanwhile, Irvin, Parker, and Herz are all later rounders that did not come in with overpowering fastballs or impressive physical appearance, and have benefitted from Doo's coaching.  This is also why he's better at trades than drafts, there's a lot more data to go on when you trade, just as the Nats draft busts' value falls, same goes for other teams when he's talking to them.

But the reason Rizzo is a problem is that his primary job is to be PR cover for Lerner cheapness and dysfunction.  He doesn't have a team President to go through like Jim Bowden had to with Kasten, and he wants to keep it that way.  To do this role properly, he has to insult our intelligence with garbage spin about salary dumps being "rebuilds" and reminding us that we're not part of "the family", he's not held accountable for bad drafts, bad coaches, etc, in spite of the authority given to him, is super defensive, can't communicate, and hates to share anything but very minimal information.   But this is what ownership wants from him.  Therefore, as much as I don't like him, he's just a useful idiot for the let's-shag-fly-balls and spend sparingly owner who would only get replaced by another useful idiot.

Online imref

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Re: Re: Now we’re having fun: 2025 Nats Roster
« Reply #49 on: September 30, 2024, 11:05:08 am »
So Lerner says that Rizzo will have the financial resources he needs for next year.

:pray: