Team spending on Free Agents: When? Why? Who?

[OfftheBat]

I actually agree with IR (excluding the insults to other members), seems like the current ownership is not willing to spend on solid free agents. Until then, it'll be very hard to field a competitive team.

Which begs the question, why is ownership not willing to spend? Also, what about free agents, is playing in DC attractive to them or not?

Breakout from the Mets GDT thread last night. Obviously, spending on the on-field product has been down or declining since the 2021 trade deadline. As Reply #3 by Slateman notes below, it largely coincided with the system being stripped and unable to produce one or two high end players a year to cover for the lack of depth. Opening post poses some good questions.

IanRubbish has said that Nats fans have been too willing to accept the Lerner kids low-budget ways and need to kick more. Others suggest it might have been OK not to spend in the past but with many of the talent gaps filled either with high-end talent (OF, MI), competent pieces (mid/backend of rotation), or players the org has committed too (looking at you, Keibert), this winter will be telling.

So, when do you think the Nats will get back into pursuing better free agents? Would they sign here? Why hasn't the team spent to prevent the decline?

[imref]

I actually agree with IR (excluding the insults to other members), seems like the current ownership is not willing to spend on solid free agents. Until then, it'll be very hard to field a competitive team.

Which begs the question, why is ownership not willing to spend? Also, what about free agents, is playing in DC attractive to them or not?

I give the team a pass for not going after big name FAs (most of whom don't end up justifying the spend) in the last few years during the rebuild but if they don't take an aggressive approach in this upcoming offseason then it becomes painfully obvious they have no intent to compete.

[Slateman]

I actually agree with IR (excluding the insults to other members), seems like the current ownership is not willing to spend on solid free agents. Until then, it'll be very hard to field a competitive team.

Which begs the question, why is ownership not willing to spend? Also, what about free agents, is playing in DC attractive to them or not?

Feel like this could be its own topic, but ownership's unwillingness to spend seems to coincide with the farm system bottoming out.

Realstically, whom would you like to have spent on the last three years? There are some guys, but I just dont see a realistic combination of free agents that would have made this team a playoff team in 2022 or 2023. Combine that with their desire to sell and it was easy to just cut payroll.

If the trend continues this offseason, it will likely result in significant pushback by fans. Already has, to some extent. In the competitive years, the Nats were regularly drawing 30K a game or more. Now its down to 24K. MASN subscriptions are down as well. If they just spend on Candelario and Jesse Winker types, then I would expect attendance to drop more. Or at least stay in that lower realm.

[Count Walewski]

This team gave a huge, above-market contract to Jayson Werth, signed Max Scherzer to what was then one of the biggest SP contracts of all time, gave a massive extension to Strasburg, etc.

For the last four years, it has not made any sense for the team to spend money since it made better baseball sense to tank.

The coming offseason will be an important test case. It now makes baseball sense to spend on the FA market, albeit its a down year for talent outside of Soto. If they don't sign big-name FAs now, I will officially be worried. Until then, I will trust that the team is just playing it smart.

[Senatorswin]

Agree with earlier posts. Understandable they didn't spend during the rebuild but this offseason they should sign a pitcher and possible a first baseman. The outfield is set and we have enough pieces for the middle infield. Third will be solved with House or one of the many they've acquired to be at that position. Catcher is what it is.

What I'm not sure I understand is when it's said Nats fans accept losing. What are we supposed to do? From the start of the 1972 season to the end of the 2004 season if I wanted to attend a baseball game I had to go to another city other than my own. I enjoy going to games and won't boycott my team by staying away or not watching them on TV. Should we boo more? Not sure what anyone who ways that expects the reaction of the fans to be.

[Smithian]

I didn't always agree, but I understood the Nationals thrifty offseason approach going into 2021. And into 2022. And into 2023. And into 2024.

Not this offseason.

Corbin contract value to Nats is dropping from $25 mil to $10 mil. Moved Lane Thomas and Hunter Harvey before another round of arbitration. I imagine the Strasburg settlement made his money at least slightly less restrictive in the short term. Williams and his $7 million are gone.

The Lerners have a choice this offseason. They could easily challenge for lowest payroll in the majors next year without needing to make a single salary dump. Or they could go out and add $30 to $50 million in annual salary value of contracts through FA and trades and still be an average or below average major league payroll, filling veterans around a nice young core.

I'm not demanding them jump into a top 10 payroll, but I want to see an every day 1B/DH, a 3B or C starting caliber signing, and an above average veteran starter. And if the Nationals are willing to eat salary, there will always be teams looking to drop contracts for underwhelming prospect returns.

I have no idea which path they'll pick. I do know the time is now.

[IanRubbish]

I think they'll spend more next offseason, if for no other reason than the impact the last few years have had on the fanbase.  But I'd rather they not do anymore big contracts with deferrals.  The overhang creates a liability to fund, and as we saw with the Max trade, it reduced the haul they got in return because the Dodgers agreed to take one of his $15m deferral payments.

[Elvir Ovcina]

This team gave a huge, above-market contract to Jayson Werth, signed Max Scherzer to what was then one of the biggest SP contracts of all time, gave a massive extension to Strasburg, etc.

For the last four years, it has not made any sense for the team to spend money since it made better baseball sense to tank.

The coming offseason will be an important test case. It now makes baseball sense to spend on the FA market, albeit its a down year for talent outside of Soto. If they don't sign big-name FAs now, I will officially be worried. Until then, I will trust that the team is just playing it smart.

"The team" = Ted Lerner in the cases above (at least the first Strasburg extension).

Then Mark took over, got burned on the second Strasburg extension plus however one wants to view Corbin.  I think the jury is certainly out on his spending philosophy.

Pitching will be interesting this winter, especially if Snell and Cole both opt out.

[HalfSmokes]

"The team" = Ted Lerner in the cases above (at least the first Strasburg extension).

Then Mark took over, got burned on the second Strasburg extension plus however one wants to view Corbin.  I think the jury is certainly out on his spending philosophy.

Pitching will be interesting this winter, especially if Snell and Cole both opt out.

Is the jury still out? Ruiz's 8 years $50M is the largest contract the team has since getting burned on Corbin and Strassburg. Payroll this year is 106M, of which almost 50M is Strasburg and Corbin. There is nothing to indicate ownership is serious about competing or willing to spend

[Elvir Ovcina]

Is the jury still out? Ruiz's 8 years $50M is the largest contract the team has since getting burned on Corbin and Strassburg. Payroll this year is 106M, of which almost 50M is Strasburg and Corbin. There is nothing to indicate ownership is serious about competing or willing to spend

Yeah, because that was at least a defensible strategy for those years because of the dead money and lack of talent anywhere in the system.  It would have taken absolutely massive spending to just end up with .500 teams.  It could have looked like the Angels.

Not spending in the next two winters would be a different story.

[HalfSmokes]

Yeah, because that was at least a defensible strategy for those years because of the dead money and lack of talent anywhere in the system.  It would have taken absolutely massive spending to just end up with .500 teams.  It could have looked like the Angels.

Not spending in the next two winters would be a different story.

Signing and trading free agents is one way to get talent into a system

[Slateman]

"The team" = Ted Lerner in the cases above (at least the first Strasburg extension).

Then Mark took over, got burned on the second Strasburg extension plus however one wants to view Corbin.  I think the jury is certainly out on his spending philosophy.

Pitching will be interesting this winter, especially if Snell and Cole both opt out.

Kind of feel like Ted was still involved in the second Strasburg extension.

[Slateman]

Not spending in the next two winters would be a different story.

This is where I'm at. If the Nats don't make big moves in this offseason, then I'm going to be renewing my MLB.TV subscription and watching Tigers games most nights

[Elvir Ovcina]

Signing and trading free agents is one way to get talent into a system

They did that at the level at which it is feasible (and it seems to have worked pretty well with Candelario).  Almost any player good enough to get a multi-year deal is not going to have enough upside/rebound built into the contract to make it sensible. 

Other GMs aren't going to sit out a battle for a decent, low-risk FA and then trade anything of value for an open-market contract.  Just look at this year's deadline deals.  It's basically all pre-arb guys or rentals. 

[imref]

In the Ladson interview Rizzo repeated his desire to sign a middle of the order bat, something we've heard for a few years now.

[Elvir Ovcina]

In the Ladson interview Rizzo repeated his desire to sign a middle of the order bat, something we've heard for a few years now.

That screams middle-of-the-market DH/1B type.  Rizzo's been bigging up both Morales and House and there aren't big up the middle bats, so there's not a lot of other places to fit a bat unless it's somebody good enough to move OFs off their positions (cough, Soto).

[Count Walewski]

Basically there are two theories about why the Nationals have not spent big money on FAs since 2019:

(1) Lerners are cheap
(2) It makes no sense to spend big money on FAs in rebuilding years

We have not been able to test these hypotheses because the Nationals have not really been in a place where these two approaches lead to different decisions. Both theories predict the exact same behavior for the 2021, 2022, 2023, and 2024 Washington Nationals. Now, finally at last, each theory predicts something different for the upcoming offseason. We will know soon, within just a few months.

[IanRubbish]

This is where I'm at. If the Nats don't make big moves in this offseason, then I'm going to be renewing my MLB.TV subscription and watching Tigers games most nights

And this is the issue with tanking for 4-5 seasons after having already tanked from 2006 to 2010.  The impact on the fanbase has been a big problem.  Will take more of an effort 6 seasons after the WS than after 2, 3, 4, or 5 to get people to come to Nats Park who aren't there for summer concerts or because they're Yankee/Phillie/Met/Brave fans.  20 games this year so far with fewer than 20k paid.   On top of that, Mini Me's lying to the press after the '23 season, which came after a similar lie following the '22 season shows the character at the top of the organization.  And then Rizzo's attempts to insult our intelligence on top of that have been the icing on the cake. 

If Rizzo had a pair, he wouldn't let Mini Me get away with this nonsense that somehow he doesn't have to worry about budget when all he did last year was go deep into the dumpster to find low budget FAs like Gallo, Rosario, and Senzel.  And then to cover for Mini Me's refusal to spend by telling us we're lucky because this only follows a fading deeper into the background 2010s run doesn't make things better when there's no one in the park many nights, and Phillie fans invade on others. 

Last season we started with....https://www.talknats.com/2023/10/23/two-weeks-until-free-agency-opens/

But then got....
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2024/feb/13/loverro-bargain-basement-nationals-kneecapped-owne/
https://www.talknats.com/2024/02/15/looking-for-roster-improvement-over-the-offseason-proves-actions-didnt-speak-louder-than-words/

[imref]

Uh, we haven't tanked for 4-5 seasons. This team was in the playoff hunt until July of 2021 when Schwarber and Scherzer went down with injuries.

2022 and 2023 were tank years. 2024 has been a youth movement year focused on bringing up the prized assets. 2025 should be a year in which we focus on competing.

[IanRubbish]

Uh, we haven't tanked for 4-5 seasons. This team was in the playoff hunt until July of 2021 when Schwarber and Scherzer went down with injuries.

2022 and 2023 were tank years. 2024 has been a youth movement year focused on bringing up the prized assets. 2025 should be a year in which we focus on competing.

2021 was a salary dump, just like trading fan favorite Livo for Garrett Mock and Matt Chico in 2006 was, but Stan Kasten tried to spin it into something else. There was no justification for either, and neither made the team better, just cheaper.

Also, this nonsense they put out that Rizzo is the decider of budget issues is absurd.  Does anyone really think it was his idea to defer half of Max's contract, or 1/3rd of Strasburg's?

[imref]

2021 was a salary dump, just like trading fan favorite Livo for Garrett Mock and Matt Chico in 2006 was, but Stan Kasten tried to spin it into something else. There was no justification for either, and neither made the team better, just cheaper.

2021 was a salary dump "after" the injuries crippled the team. It was not a tank year.

[Elvir Ovcina]

2021 was a salary dump, just like trading fan favorite Livo for Garrett Mock and Matt Chico in 2006 was, but Stan Kasten tried to spin it into something else. There was no justification for either, and neither made the team better, just cheaper.

Also, this nonsense they put out that Rizzo is the decider of budget issues is absurd.  Does anyone really think it was his idea to defer half of Max's contract, or 1/3rd of Strasburg's?

Wow, Chico and Mock in the house.  I wonder what Garrett Mock is up to these days.  PhD in particle physics? F-35 pilot?  Sanskrit literature expert?

[IanRubbish]

Wow, Chico and Mock in the house. 

Along with Nook Logan, Ryan Church, and the overweight Screech.  Also, pre-gaming on Capitol Hill because there was nothing near RFK or Nats Park back then. 

I'll say this though, all the 2006-08 starters had higher OBPs for the season than Keibert does now.  If Mini Me does spend on anyone, they better live up to the contract, because Davey will have to play them regardless.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Along with Nook Logan, Ryan Church, and the overweight Screech.  Also, pre-gaming on Capitol Hill because there was nothing near RFK or Nats Park back then. 

I'll say this though, all the 2006-08 starters had higher OBPs for the season than Keibert does now.  If Mini Me does spend on anyone, they better live up to the contract, because Davey will have to play them regardless.

Hey, Ryan Church could rake...as long as it was all fastballs all the time.  He hit some nukes.

But if you want bad defense, Fat Vidro is pretty high up the list of insanely bad infielders I've ever seen in MLB.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

2021 was a salary dump "after" the injuries crippled the team. It was not a tank year.

I'd go a little further. I think the deadline trades in 2021 were not so much dumping salary as they were dumping expiring assets for some quick help, or what Rizzo referred to as a reload and not a rebuild. Only real exception to that was Turner, who would have had utility in 2022 before walking. Most of the trade targets were quick to the majors guys who were intended to surround Soto and Bell, as well as a not yet terminally bad Corbin and a Stras recovered from TOS. Thomas, Ruiz, Gray, Thompson, and Adams were in fact quick to the majors "reload" types, while other guys got derailed by injuries or, in the case of the extra pieces in the Turner / Scherzer deal, were not as good as they seemed in the dodgers system. IT was after 2021, with the realization that they would not be good while Soto was under team control and that he was not giving a discount to them, that they started making more "rebuild" moves and dealing for minor leaguers a few years away.