Lane Train Departs Nats

[Elvir Ovcina]

Doesn't speak well for every single other prospect in baseball then considering he's still #2.

He's still a 20-year-old middle IF mashing AAA as a former #1 overall pick. But considering how far above everyone else he was a few months ago, this is quite a fall.

[nobleisthyname]

I think you're underselling Wood's mashing in AAA in him passing Holliday on prospects lists. It's not like Wood's placement on prospects lists is based purely on projectability. He was the best hitter in AAA this season.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I think you're underselling Wood's mashing in AAA in him passing Holliday on prospects lists. It's not like Wood's placement on prospects lists is based purely on projectability. He was the best hitter in AAA this season.

I'm not underselling Wood.  I just think ranking prospects is somewhat a silly exercise.  Sure, you can put them in value tiers.  But #1 vs #2 doesn't matter a damn thing considering they're not on the same team and don't play any of the same positions. The desire to assign number ranks to freaking everything is a peculiarly American characteristic that people in other countries laugh at for very good reason.

[nobleisthyname]

I'm not underselling Wood.  I just think ranking prospects is somewhat a silly exercise.  Sure, you can put them in value tiers.  But #1 vs #2 doesn't matter a damn thing considering they're not on the same team and don't play any of the same positions. The desire to assign number ranks to freaking everything is a peculiarly American characteristic that people in other countries laugh at for very good reason.

I'm saying Holliday struggling in his first cup of coffee isn't sufficient for him to be dropped to #2. It was that combined with Wood mashing that caused them to switch.

I agree specific rankings are mostly meaningless. There's not really much of a difference between the #30 prospect and the #80 prospect.

[Slateman]

The first one.
Also I think teams will figure Young out and he won’t hit enough to play every day. Pitching depth does not seem as good without Gray for another year and have no idea what is going on with Cavalli. Don’t think Abrams will be great at SS with his defense. Seems more of a 2B.

I’m still cautiously optimistic but they will need free agent signings to supplement.

Not sure what there is to "figure out" with Young. He's a slap hitter.

The pitching depth is a pretty big concern. Rizzo needs to spend in the offseason on pitching. Cavalli pencils in as, at best, the number 5. Corbin and Williams are gone, so that leaves four more rotation spots. Gore, Parker, and Irvin are three of those. But those are three young arms that throw hard, so you figure you're probably going to lose one of them to injuries next season. We have DJ Herz, Brad Lord, and Tyler STuart can provide some innings, but they should be considered back of the rotation types. You maybe get something from a Jake Bennett or Andy Lara, but you can't really count on that.

Rizzo needs to acquire a good starting pitcher. Something like a 3 or maybe a 2 on a bad team.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'm saying Holliday struggling in his first cup of coffee isn't sufficient for him to be dropped to #2. It was that combined with Wood mashing that caused them to switch.

I agree specific rankings are mostly meaningless. There's not really much of a difference between the #30 prospect and the #80 prospect.

Sure.  If you know more about how they do their rankings than I do, that's fun and cool.  I take them with a huge grain of salt.

I'm also not convinced there's any difference between 30th and 80th other than recent stats, and it takes you a long time to fall down the rankings once you're proving you can't do it.  Easier to push your way up than fall down once you've got the hype.  These are prospect rankings that still have Anthony Solometo ranked high in the Pirates system.  MF is throwing 87 with a flat slider and getting shredded in AA while lower ranked guys in that system are dealing.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm not underselling Wood.  I just think ranking prospects is somewhat a silly exercise.  Sure, you can put them in value tiers.  But #1 vs #2 doesn't matter a damn thing considering they're not on the same team and don't play any of the same positions. The desire to assign number ranks to freaking everything is a peculiarly American characteristic that people in other countries laugh at for very good reason.

I'd say that's not the #1 thing they poke fun of. It has to be us calling the game "soccer." I'm not sure our tendency to assign a number rank to everything doesn't make the top 3 things they laugh at. Maybe it slips into the bottom of the top 5.

[nobleisthyname]

Sure.  If you know more about how they do their rankings than I do, that's fun and cool.  I take them with a huge grain of salt.

Not saying I do. I'm just saying Wood passing Holliday isn't only because Holliday struggled during his cup of coffee. You say yourself it's easier to push yourself up than fall down.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I'd say that's not the #1 thing they poke fun of. It has to be us calling the game "soccer." I'm not sure our tendency to assign a number rank to everything doesn't make the top 3 things they laugh at. Maybe it slips into the bottom of the top 5.

It's not #1 but I get it a lot.  I don't know how that changes in the top 5 overseas countries I've spent time in versus the top 8 or so, but I'm sure people there can express it in one of the top 4 non-English languages.  Personally I can understand 2 of the top 4, but that changes whether you rank them based on native speakers versus speakers.  Either way, it's not one of my top five concerns in life.

Not saying I do. I'm just saying Wood passing Holliday isn't only because Holliday struggled during his cup of coffee. You say yourself it's easier to push yourself up than fall down.

I'd rank this in the top three violent agreements I've had today.

[Smithian]

from the same Longehagen article, this time on Tena:

What are the odds the Nats will help this guy pull?

He is the #3 of the package for me. New staff could help him. Why not take a flyer on him?

I like this trade a lot. Ramirez is a good lower level lottery ticket. Clemmey is young and right now the Nationals pitching in and near the majors has lots of arms, a lot less hope near the bottom of the minors. Clemmey helps remedy that.

I didn't want to move Lane Thomas for a small return. This is a really good return for a guy who is a nice piece but not irreplaceable should the Nats find themselves competitive next season.

[Elvir Ovcina]

from the same Longehagen article, this time on Tena:

What are the odds the Nats will help this guy pull?

Zero, and Fangraphs looks too heavily at numbers.  They find some gems that way, but they also had Allan Cerda ranked above Matt McLain as a prospect in the same org in 2022 because he kills fastballs and takes everything else, which results in walks.  (News flash: Allan Cerda is still in AA because he can't actually hit breaking pitches.  Like, at all, and watching even 2 or 3 games of him would have told them that.)

Tena has good AAA numbers...and much worse AA ones.  That tells you he doesn't handle velocity well but hits junk.  Well, in MLB you don't get junk pitches if you can't hit 96 in the zone.  This guy is not a prospect.

[nobleisthyname]

It's not #1 but I get it a lot.  I don't know how that changes in the top 5 overseas countries I've spent time in versus the top 8 or so, but I'm sure people there can express it in one of the top 4 non-English languages.  Personally I can understand 2 of the top 4, but that changes whether you rank them based on native speakers versus speakers.  Either way, it's not one of my top five concerns in life.

 

[Smithian]

I don't see why there is so much analysis of Tena. He feels like an extra piece the Guardians threw in to get the deal over the line. He's a SS on a club with a starter under team control and who just drafted a 1st rounder out of college at the spot.

They're going to see if he has the ability to move a bit around the diamond and if they can unlock something with the bat. If the answer is "no" to both those, they're not going to be scared to shuffle him between Rochester and DC, even if it means exposing him to waivers.

The value is the two prospects in the lower minors, where Nats are suddenly void impact prospects after a lot of promotions through the system.

[Elvir Ovcina]

I don't see why there is so much analysis of Tena. He feels like an extra piece the Guardians threw in to get the deal over the line. He's a SS on a club with a starter under team control and who just drafted a 1st rounder out of college at the spot.

They're going to se if he has the ability to move a bit around the diamond and if he they can unlock something with the bat. If the answer is "no" to both those, they're not going to be scared to shuffle him between Rochester and DC, even if it means exposing him to waivers.

The value is the two prospects in the lower minors, where Nats are suddenly void impact prospects after a lot of promotions through the system.

It's Wilmer Difo plus a possible Wilmer Difo plus a reasonable but young pitching prospect. That's not bad, but like you pretty much said, Wilmer Difo kinda sucked.

[Smithian]

It's Wilmer Difo plus a possible Wilmer Difo plus a pitching prospect. That's not bad, but like you said, Wilmer Difo kinda sucked.

Rafael Ramirez, Jr. is 19. I think it is a bit early to write him off as Wilmer Difo after struggling for half a season in A ball.

[nobleisthyname]

It's Wilmer Difo plus a possible Wilmer Difo plus a reasonable but young pitching prospect. That's not bad, but like you pretty much said, Wilmer Difo kinda sucked.

Is there no chance of something better there for Tena? Just quickly double checked their stats pages and Difo never managed to hit above A+ while Tena has a track record of being an above average to really good hitter in AA and AAA.

I'm very far from a prospects junkie so would defer to your analysis but just looking at the numbers Difo appears to be worse.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Rafael Ramirez, Jr. is 19. I think it is a bit early to write him off as Wilmer Difo after struggling for half a season in A ball.

He's barely 19, at that.  But that's not a hard league to hit in.  It's below top D1 baseball, albeit using wood bats.  You basically have a guy who's had a rough freshman year in the ACC.  Sure, he might figure it out.  Most don't.

Is there no chance of something better there for Tena? Just quickly double checked their stats pages and Difo never managed to hit above A+ while Tena has a track record of being an above average to really good hitter in AA and AAA.

I'm very far from a prospects junkie so would defer to your analysis but just looking at the numbers Difo appears to be worse.

Difo is a much better glove.  This dude is supposedly mostly a 2B who can kinda sorta play SS.  The world's a lot different than when Difo came up, but think of it this way: if the Guardians thought this guy could actually handle MLB pitching, would he have 1400 PAs in the upper minors?

[Smithian]

Is there no chance of something better there for Tena? Just quickly double checked their stats pages and Difo never managed to hit above A+ while Tena has a track record of being an above average to really good hitter in AA and AAA.

I'm very far from a prospects junkie so would defer to your analysis but just looking at the numbers Difo appears to be worse.

I think it is a bit unfair to Tena, but if I don't have to squint hard to see the resemblance.

[imref]

Tena seems to similar to Baker, but with less speed.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Baumann on the trade:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-rizz-cashes-in-on-lane-thomas/

On Monday night, Washington sent Thomas to Cleveland for a bumper crop of prospects: Left-hander Alex Clemmey and infielders José Tena and Rafael Ramirez Jr.

It is, to be frank, a lot of prospect freight. Washington did very well in this deal. But it’s not an irrational overpay for the Guardians — we’re not completely out of the era of one team getting hosed in a trade (I have no idea what the Astros were thinking giving up that much for Yusei Kikuchi, for instance), but the rising professionalism of the front office, along with ideological convergence, has rendered the Frank Robinson-for-Milt Pappas deal rarer than it used to be.

No, this is more along the lines of the Guardians getting a player they need, but maybe paying a little too much to do so. Because Thomas really does help Cleveland out.

[Smithian]

Baumann on the trade:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/big-rizz-cashes-in-on-lane-thomas/

That's where I fall. Feels like a win-win trade.

[IanRubbish]

That's where I fall. Feels like a win-win trade.

I'd say wait and see.  We thought the Max/Trea haul was good and it hasn't been at all.  Could be 2-3 years until we have a good sense of what Clemmey can become.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I'd say wait and see.  We thought the Max/Trea haul was good and it hasn't been at all.  Could be 2-3 years until we have a good sense of what Clemmey can become.

I think most were disappointed with what we got in return for Max and Trea.

[KV]

Started today in RF for Cleveland. 1-4 with 2Ks.

[GataNats]

I'd say wait and see.  We thought the Max/Trea haul was good and it hasn't been at all.  Could be 2-3 years until we have a good sense of what Clemmey can become.

Nobody thought that was a haul.  We got raped