Author Topic: Who Wants To Win  (Read 1706 times)

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Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #25: July 28, 2024, 10:02:59 PM »
Royals, cards, brewers, and Phillies look happy now.

Royals - In 2024 they have salaries of 20M through 2025, 16M ends this year, 15M through next year. Nobody else over 5.5M.

Cardinals - In 2024 - One 35M goes down a little until ends in 2027, 26M ends this year, 18.5 ends 2025, 18M ends 2027. Nobody else over 12.5.

Brewers - In 2024 - One 26M. 1 at 12.5 M nobody else over 5.7. Everybody else really low.

Phillies - Big revenue team that will spend anything to get a World Series.

Nationals - In 2024 1 at 35.5M ends this year. nobody else over 6.3M.

Royals - 26th in revenue, Cardinals - 13th, Brewers - 19th in revenue. Phillies 6th. Nationals - 14th.

This is a perfect example of where we're at now. The Nats used to spend big but now in line with other teams around their revenue. These teams can get the second and third tier guys but not the really big guys like Soto Ohtani, Judge etc. The really top guys are going to go to one of six teams. There's a few high revenue teams that could go after the big guys but never seem to sign them like the Cubs and today's Red Sox.

What this tells me is this off-season there's no reason the Nats shouldn't sign a couple of guys in the 15M to 25M range. They have about 40M in deferred money but that shouldn't count because that's money like Scherzer who was underpaid during his time here so they made money by the deferred situation.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #26: July 29, 2024, 09:51:54 AM »
What this tells me is this off-season there's no reason the Nats shouldn't sign a couple of guys in the 15M to 25M range. They have about 40M in deferred money but that shouldn't count because that's money like Scherzer who was underpaid during his time here so they made money by the deferred situation.

They have $50M in deferrals next year including Stras and $10M for Corbin.  The $2M Rafael Soriano has been getting per year ends this season.  In no way were these money making or beneficial.  They don't count against the luxury tax, but they absolutely impact cash flows and will limit how much the team can spend for the rest of the 2020s.  They also don't make someone "underpaid".  Boras gets paid on total contract value so he was happy with using them to get the Scherzer, Soriano, and Stras deals done.  Rendon wouldn't accept them which is why thankfully he is gone.  Their active roster payroll this year wasn't much higher than the deferrals plus Stras total. 

Their cash comp next year drops $15M for Corbin, but that will be offset by arbitration eligibility for CJ and Gore.   Lane and Finnegan will each make about $7M-$8M next year in what is the last year before free agency for both.  So if they're traded that frees up another $15M.  Luis Garcia will likely go from approx $2M to $4M. Without the deferrals, they'd start with an A's-level payroll next year.   So yes, there is room for a $15M-$25M per year contract, but not a multi-year one with more heavy deferrals.  The team has to stop putting winning seasons on a credit card and ensuring they'll have to tank for years when the bill comes due.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #27: July 29, 2024, 10:13:42 AM »
They have $50M in deferrals next year including Stras and $10M for Corbin.  The $2M Rafael Soriano has been getting per year ends this season.  In no way were these money making or beneficial.  They don't count against the luxury tax, but they absolutely impact cash flows and will limit how much the team can spend for the rest of the 2020s.  They also don't make someone "underpaid".  Boras gets paid on total contract value so he was happy with using them to get the Scherzer, Soriano, and Stras deals done.  Rendon wouldn't accept them which is why thankfully he is gone.  Their active roster payroll this year wasn't much higher than the deferrals plus Stras total. 

Their cash comp next year drops $15M for Corbin, but that will be offset by arbitration eligibility for CJ and Gore.   Lane and Finnegan will each make about $7M-$8M next year in what is the last year before free agency for both.  So if they're traded that frees up another $15M.  Luis Garcia will likely go from approx $2M to $4M. Without the deferrals, they'd start with an A's-level payroll next year.   So yes, there is room for a $15M-$25M per year contract, but not a multi-year one with more heavy deferrals.  The team has to stop putting winning seasons on a credit card and ensuring they'll have to tank for years when the bill comes due.
Well no one is taking deferred deals any more so they won’t have that issue in the future.  Any sound businessman would have put these deferred funds aside. And invested them. The way the stock market has gone they have gains from their investments that could pay for more players while they pay the money due to the players. They have the money despite the deferrals. They just don’t want to spend it. They got their title and are satisfied with that.

Signing a couple mid level free agents this off-season would show the fans that they are serious. I’m skeptical but we shall see.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #28: July 29, 2024, 10:22:41 AM »
Don’t forget there are all sorts of legal federal tax breaks for real estate developers. The Lerner family probably pays very little in federal income taxes.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #29: July 29, 2024, 10:24:11 AM »
The Nats have some of the highest ticket and concession prices.  Revenue would be much higher if they had capitalized on 2019 and continued to field a modestly competitive team.  Being in real estate, where all opex is overhead, the Lerners don’t get the idea of spending money to make money.
I haven't looked this year, but in 2023 and 2022 it was pretty easy to find the Nationals concessions and ticket prices were absurdly high even for pro sports. And if you judged them by team success, they'd be comically out of mainstream.

Credit to the Nats, they're reintroducing a lot of deals, promotions, and other benefits this season. Those things should have been happening last couple years.

Offline imref

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #30: July 29, 2024, 10:48:01 AM »
I haven't looked this year, but in 2023 and 2022 it was pretty easy to find the Nationals concessions and ticket prices were absurdly high even for pro sports. And if you judged them by team success, they'd be comically out of mainstream.

Credit to the Nats, they're reintroducing a lot of deals, promotions, and other benefits this season. Those things should have been happening last couple years.
the summer concert series has been a huge draw. So much so that they added a fifth show (Two Friends on August 30). I have no idea who that is. :)

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #31: July 29, 2024, 11:04:19 AM »
They have $50M in deferrals next year including Stras and $10M for Corbin.  The $2M Rafael Soriano has been getting per year ends this season.  In no way were these money making or beneficial.  They don't count against the luxury tax, but they absolutely impact cash flows and will limit how much the team can spend for the rest of the 2020s.  They also don't make someone "underpaid".  Boras gets paid on total contract value so he was happy with using them to get the Scherzer, Soriano, and Stras deals done.  Rendon wouldn't accept them which is why thankfully he is gone.  Their active roster payroll this year wasn't much higher than the deferrals plus Stras total. 

Their cash comp next year drops $15M for Corbin, but that will be offset by arbitration eligibility for CJ and Gore.   Lane and Finnegan will each make about $7M-$8M next year in what is the last year before free agency for both.  So if they're traded that frees up another $15M.  Luis Garcia will likely go from approx $2M to $4M. Without the deferrals, they'd start with an A's-level payroll next year.   So yes, there is room for a $15M-$25M per year contract, but not a multi-year one with more heavy deferrals.  The team has to stop putting winning seasons on a credit card and ensuring they'll have to tank for years when the bill comes due.

What exactly are the $50 million in deferrals this off-season. I'm not saying they don't have them but what are they? There's no question Max was underpaid on a yearly basis the seasons he pitched for the Nats. As was pointed out by Natsinpwc the deferrals are money in the owners pockets at the time that they made money on. It's not really fair to say we have to pay the deferrals so we can't sign somebody.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #32: July 29, 2024, 11:07:21 AM »
I haven't looked this year, but in 2023 and 2022 it was pretty easy to find the Nationals concessions and ticket prices were absurdly high even for pro sports. And if you judged them by team success, they'd be comically out of mainstream.

Credit to the Nats, they're reintroducing a lot of deals, promotions, and other benefits this season. Those things should have been happening last couple years.

When I went to the Marlins game in Miami last week I got a hot dog for $3.00 and a coke for $3.00. I was like are kidding me. I'm not sure I'm allowed to take a crap at Nats park for under $3.00.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #33: July 29, 2024, 12:16:52 PM »
When I went to the Marlins game in Miami last week I got a hot dog for $3.00 and a coke for $3.00. I was like are kidding me. I'm not sure I'm allowed to take a crap at Nats park for under $3.00.
Sure but would you go back there?

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #34: July 29, 2024, 12:22:23 PM »
Sure but would you go back there?

No. I will say of all the stadiums I've been to, that was the 16th MLB stadium, Nats Park is as good as any of them and probably better than all of them, especially Oriole Park.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #35: July 29, 2024, 12:43:23 PM »
Royals - In 2024 they have salaries of 20M through 2025, 16M ends this year, 15M through next year. Nobody else over 5.5M.

Cardinals - In 2024 - One 35M goes down a little until ends in 2027, 26M ends this year, 18.5 ends 2025, 18M ends 2027. Nobody else over 12.5.

Brewers - In 2024 - One 26M. 1 at 12.5 M nobody else over 5.7. Everybody else really low.

Phillies - Big revenue team that will spend anything to get a World Series.

Nationals - In 2024 1 at 35.5M ends this year. nobody else over 6.3M.

Royals - 26th in revenue, Cardinals - 13th, Brewers - 19th in revenue. Phillies 6th. Nationals - 14th.

Dave's post asked which teams are happy with their moves in the off-season.  There's no way the Royals aren't happy. They showed that spending wisely can plug multiple holes without huge long term commitments. Also, the Witt signing was not on a free agent, but was a big commitment to a young star.


Quote
What this tells me is this off-season there's no reason the Nats shouldn't sign a couple of guys in the 15M to 25M range. They have about 40M in deferred money but that shouldn't count because that's money like Scherzer who was underpaid during his time here so they made money by the deferred situation.
It really depends on the market.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #36: July 29, 2024, 01:08:12 PM »
Sure but would you go back there?
No. I will say of all the stadiums I've been to, that was the 16th MLB stadium, Nats Park is as good as any of them and probably better than all of them, especially Oriole Park.
To be fair, I know many Nats fans who simply dont want to pay the prices at Nats Park. Trying to take a family trip wi be about $200, unless they start bringing their own food.

Like, I get it, are is one of the most affluent in the country. But that doesnt mean its worth it.

Offline Smithian

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #37: July 29, 2024, 01:27:34 PM »
To be fair, I know many Nats fans who simply dont want to pay the prices at Nats Park. Trying to take a family trip wi be about $200, unless they start bringing their own food.

Like, I get it, are is one of the most affluent in the country. But that doesnt mean its worth it.
I go to an occasional Nats game, but I struggle to justify paying that much for a game in a 162 game season for a bad team.

I can get into DC United matches for cheaper, and an individual soccer match has more meaning. Commanders may be the worst product/price, at least a 16 game season makes it more meaningful.

If I need baseball, it's cheaper to head to a FredNats game. I imagine same with Bowie Baysox, but I can't support any part of that franchise.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #38: July 29, 2024, 01:32:35 PM »
What exactly are the $50 million in deferrals this off-season. I'm not saying they don't have them but what are they? There's no question Max was underpaid on a yearly basis the seasons he pitched for the Nats. As was pointed out by Natsinpwc the deferrals are money in the owners pockets at the time that they made money on. It's not really fair to say we have to pay the deferrals so we can't sign somebody.

Stras 24, Max 15, Corbin 10.   Max gets 15 a year through 2027, Stras gets 24 through 2026, then 27+ interest from 2027 to 2029.

Brad Hand and Rafael Soriano fall off this year.

The deferrals come directly out of team cash flow, so they absolutely impact the ability to spend next year.  They're also not "money in the pocket" when their intent is to prevent negative cash flows, as was likely the case ten years ago.  Wasn't like the team had the money in the bank, it just prevented them from having to borrow.   Additionally, both Strasburg contracts had interest payments included, meaning they had to add back interest for paying 1/3rd of his salary after the contract ended, so even if they did invest it all the investment gains would go back to deferral payments.

Deferrals aren't a historic item either.  Brad Hand has over 60% of his contract deferred before the '21 season.   One reason why they were able to get Riley Adams for him was the Nats picking up all of Hand's deferrals.  Without that, no chance the Blue Jays make the trade.

Every large contract they've ever done has had deferrals, Werth's came during the contract, but the reason they rushed to tank and salary dump in mid '21 was they knew a large bill was coming, and they'd have to take years off of competing in order to cover the payments.   

Boras really knew how to work the old man when it came to these things, I get really concerned about what he could do to Mini Me if the team actually tries to spend.  Another $100 million for deferrals just to bring in Pete Alonso or Tyler O'Neill would just be another guarantee of more tank years, and they've already tanked half the seasons they've owned the team.

I work in corporate finance, and can assure you no sensible business would do this.  Shareholders would scream at the huge liability cutting into company value.  Moreover, it requires spending cash without offsetting revenue.  No one's going to Nats Park now to see Max, so there's no business benefit to the cash spent on him now, or over the next three years.  But the Lerners have questionable ethics and are running a family business as cheaply as they can, and don't have to answer to shareholders.   

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #39: July 29, 2024, 01:49:59 PM »
Deferrals are bad for the players and especially when inflation is higher.  No one is signing a deferred salary deal anymore.

The Werth deal didn’t have deferrals. Also the offer to Soto did not.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #40: July 29, 2024, 02:31:50 PM »
Deferrals are bad for the players and especially when inflation is higher.  No one is signing a deferred salary deal anymore.

The Werth deal didn’t have deferrals. Also the offer to Soto did not.

Have you forgotten the Shohei contract?  He just signed onto the biggest deferral in history but the Dodgers are far more able to afford the payments after the player is gone than the Nats are.

Deferrals are good for agents and some deferred contracts, including Strasburg's, include interest payments.   

Werth had a deferral with interest that was negotiated while he was still under contract in 2016.   We don't know the details of the Soto offer because only the headline number was made public, but Rendon and Harper absolutely were offered deferrals, with Harper's being $100 million of the $300 million total. 

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #41: July 29, 2024, 03:59:19 PM »
Dave's post asked which teams are happy with their moves in the off-season.  There's no way the Royals aren't happy. They showed that spending wisely can plug multiple holes without huge long term commitments. Also, the Witt signing was not on a free agent, but was a big commitment to a young star.

 It really depends on the market.

I can guarantee you the Royals are happy with their signings. They've gone from losing 106 games in 2023 to currently being 8 over .500 and in a wild card position. The Rangers, Dbacks and Royals how quickly teams can go from bad teams to contenders. The Nats should sign some players this offseason in the $15M to $25M range.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #42: July 29, 2024, 04:03:09 PM »
To be fair, I know many Nats fans who simply dont want to pay the prices at Nats Park. Trying to take a family trip wi be about $200, unless they start bringing their own food.

Like, I get it, are is one of the most affluent in the country. But that doesnt mean its worth it.

Yep, that's why it's not really fair to complain about the concession prices because they allow you to bring your own food in and bottled water. It would be nice if they did make it more affordable though.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #43: July 29, 2024, 04:07:05 PM »
I still say the deferrals are there for the benefit of the owner and when they save money for instance through the Scherzer years by taking some of the money he's worth and paying it to him later it's not valid to then say I can't spend money this coming year because I'm paying Max money I should of paid him 6 or 10 years ago.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #44: July 29, 2024, 06:39:35 PM »
Yep, that's why it's not really fair to complain about the concession prices because they allow you to bring your own food in and bottled water. It would be nice if they did make it more affordable though.
Yes, the kids will definitely be happy eating the food from home. I especially like [insert whatever food here] over the traditional ball park food stuff.

Sorry, a hot dog and a beer shouldnt run me 20 bucks at a ball park. Ita dumb and its costing them revenue.

Offline Natsinpwc

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #45: July 29, 2024, 06:53:10 PM »
Yes, the kids will definitely be happy eating the food from home. I especially like [insert whatever food here] over the traditional ball park food stuff.

Sorry, a hot dog and a beer shouldnt run me 20 bucks at a ball park. Ita dumb and its costing them revenue.
Captive audience. If the sales were down they would lower the prices. 

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #46: July 29, 2024, 07:26:58 PM »
Yes, the kids will definitely be happy eating the food from home. I especially like [insert whatever food here] over the traditional ball park food stuff.

Sorry, a hot dog and a beer shouldnt run me 20 bucks at a ball park. Ita dumb and its costing them revenue.

While I'm sure the kids would like that terrible dip-n-dots UGH (they say it's good but doesn't look it), I don't think they care if they don't they care much about what they serve there.

I know I get something before the game as soon as I get in the stadium because if you wait until the third inning or so you're going to miss at least an inning often more. I haven't bought a beer at the park but I'm pretty sure 20 bucks isn't enough to get a dog and a beer. Pretty sad.

Offline varoadking

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #47: July 29, 2024, 08:33:44 PM »

Pretty clear that this team won't even be competitive in 2025 either...

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #48: July 29, 2024, 08:34:59 PM »
Pretty clear that this team won't even be competitive in 2025 either...

Yeah its looking that way isn't it lol

Offline Slateman

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Re: Who Wants To Win
« Reply #49: July 29, 2024, 08:39:47 PM »
Captive audience. If the sales were down they would lower the prices. 
Sales are down.