2025 MLB Draft

[varoadking]

I have never said any such thing.

Yeah...me neither...I'm not a stats guy...

[imref]

BBA back to the Nats drafting Holliday. ESPN and The Athletic have us taking Anderson.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

BBA back to the Nats drafting Holliday. ESPN and The Athletic have us taking Anderson.

I'm still not understanding why KA thinks firing Rizzo means they're going to draft someone who goes through the system faster? Anderson won't be up this season so its not going to help Debartolo anyway. If you interviewing prospective GMs and you have a cheap ownership group wouldn't you want the kid that will be up in 3-4 years so you have something to build around when you lose all your current young talent they refuse to pay?

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jamie-arnold-vs-liam-doyle-fast-moving-college-lefties-go-electric/

Profiles of Doyle and Arnold by Baumann. Talks about how these two don't fit the profile of Strasburg / Cole / Skenes or even Burnes in the quick to the majors big guy ...

As different as Doyle and Arnold are, both in terms of repertoire and personality, I like the same thing about both of them: They’re not the prototype. The top of every draft has its fast-to-the-majors workhorse starter, and from Stephen Strasburg to Gerrit Cole to Paul Skenes, those guys tend to be big. They have immaculate mechanics and prototypical secondary stuff. It’s easy to put the fortunes of a franchise on a player who looks like what you know.

Doyle and Arnold are a little weird. They’re small, they don’t have prototypical arm actions. You don’t have to know a thing about pitching to understand why Doyle can climb the ladder so effectively with his fastball, or how Arnold can make guys fall over swinging at a slider in the opposite batter’s box. But it’s not what Skenes, or Cole, or even Chase Burns, looks like on the mound.

With modern training and pitch design, and the understanding that if you have one 70-grade pitch you can build a starter’s arsenal around it, Doyle and Arnold are breaking the mold, and new ground for college pitchers in the draft. The pitchability lefty with the funny arm slot can hit 97 now, and the max-effort fastball guy can throw strikes and pitch into the sixth and seventh inning. A new era is dawning; might as well get up and pump your fist about it.

[Slateman]

So, that was something I thought was interesting. The justification for taking Anderson is that he would come up quickly and be in the Nats rotation in time for this (supposed) competitive window.

For one, I think that's crazy to think a guy can come up within a year and be a solid piece. Anyone coming up that fast is going to be on innings limits and pretty strict pitch counts. You're looking at someone who is expected to provide a 5th starter type load, where they only go 75 pitches. Second, that's a huge jump. Like, yes, Skenes did it. Rowder did provide 6 starts in september. But overall, that seems really unrealistic.

Second, if you want that, then I don't know that Anderson has that skillset. He has above average offerings, but they need refinement. Arnold is much more polished, both with his command and his pitchability. And Doyle's fastball would get him fast tracked as a reliever.

But this seems insanely short-sighted to me. Take BPA, regardless of how long is going to take them. How you arrive at BPA will be different, but the ability to get a guy up to the big leagues should be irrelevant to the draft decision. If you need someone on the roster, spend the money and get a free agent.

[tomterp]

One take on the draft, thinking ss Eli Willets to be a legit candidate.  Not yet 18...

https://districtondeck.com/nationals-plans-for-1-pick-in-mlb-draft-coming-into-focus-after-mike-rizzo-firing-01jzkc0wrnwc

...  The Nationals have hosted Willits and his family on a visit and private workout to Nationals Park, and he more clearly fits the profile of what this new draft group covets most.

He is the youngest player in the draft, who won't be 18-years-old until December, and is a switch-hitting shortstop with tools galore. His hit tool is among the best in this year's entire draft class, and his glove, speed, and arm should be a great enough combination to keep him at shortstop once he gets to the big leagues. His one weakness to his game right now is his power, which doesn't stick out as much as Holliday's, but given his youth and overall potential, he should be able to add more muscle easily and begin to hit for more power as he matures physically.

[imref]

One take on the draft, thinking ss Eli Willets to be a legit candidate.  Not yet 18...

https://districtondeck.com/nationals-plans-for-1-pick-in-mlb-draft-coming-into-focus-after-mike-rizzo-firing-01jzkc0wrnwc

seems like a pick that would allow us to spend more elsewhere?

[Kevrock]

One take on the draft, thinking ss Eli Willets to be a legit candidate.  Not yet 18...

https://districtondeck.com/nationals-plans-for-1-pick-in-mlb-draft-coming-into-focus-after-mike-rizzo-firing-01jzkc0wrnwc

17 and 7 months, youngest big time prospect in the draft after reclassifying.

Read more about him after the last time we discussed him. I saw15 HR potential if his power develops. Incredible contact and rarely chases out of the zone. Would be an exciting pick.

[imref]

17 and 7 months, youngest big time prospect in the draft after reclassifying.

Read more about him after the last time we discussed him. I saw15 HR potential if his power develops. Incredible contact and rarely chases out of the zone. Would be an exciting pick.

If they ever do players weekend again, and he makes it to the majors, i want to see him wearing "watcha talking about?" as his name.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Read more about him after the last time we discussed him. I saw15 HR potential if his power develops. Incredible contact and rarely chases out of the zone. Would be an exciting pick.

if you buy the criticism that the Nats underemphasized contact in the strike zone and laying off balls, then Willits seems like a square rejection of the past.

[GataNats]

Willets is the best pick.   We screwed up taking Crews and not Max

[stoneghost28]

Willets is the best pick.   We screwed up taking Crews and not Max

Isn't that a giant pile of hindsight bias? I was watching that draft probably like a lot of you, for a good 9 months, and it was essentially Skenes, and Crews by '23, admittedly earlier on, Skenes wasn't in it, but Crews was #1, I think if I remember right, Dollander was the #2 behind Crews in the fall of '22 before Skenes flew by everyone. I don't recall Max Clark being top 2 on literally any board I saw anywhere.

I can forgive teams that pick consensus guys and the guy just fails to fire, a lot more than I can forgive hyper conservative high floor meh ceiling guys, or going crazy off the board and being totally wrong.

This year, what's bothering me is the sense that I get that Holliday and Hernandez are easily the most talented in class, but people are scared of high school pitchers, and Holliday's likely agent, and yeah, high school status.

I would and I guess am losing my ---- that how close to the majors is impacting our decision making here, it is so monstrously stupid to me. Is it not patently obvious that we've butchered most drafts for a decade, that we screwed up the Scherzer/turner trade (appear to have done far, far, far better in the Soto trade, while the Dodgers trade return has been quite disappointing) and the idea that we're contending in 1-2 years, and we need the pick up sooner is farcical. What about this rotation says we are anywhere remotely near contending? We have one quality pitcher, maybe two if Grey can recover really well from TJ by the end of '26, we've got holes everywhere. Just draft the best, highest upside prospect, period. Whomever that is. If I'm wrong about how Hernandez is evaluated, fine, pick someone else, but everything I've come across suggests Seth and Holliday are the best upside shots, that's what I'd swing at, getting a solid MLB pitcher isn't going to move the needle, especially considering that's generally a ceiling rather than expectation, especially considering Kade's already had TJ. I guess I just don't get it at all. Makes zero sense to me, and I'll just have to pray I'm wrong if that's the direction taken.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Willets is the best pick.   We screwed up taking Crews and not Max

Nobody would've picked Max over Crews. Nobody. Stop this.

[Smithian]

Nobody would've picked Max over Crews. Nobody. Stop this.

Every Dylan Crews retrospect I read ignores fact everyone in baseball would have jumped on Crews at #2. A glove that plays in CF and a bat that punished the SEC for three seasons.

Also, why are we acting like Dylan Crews is Elijah Green? I'm far from writing him off.

[Smithian]

17 and 7 months, youngest big time prospect in the draft after reclassifying.

Read more about him after the last time we discussed him. I saw15 HR potential if his power develops. Incredible contact and rarely chases out of the zone. Would be an exciting pick.

I'm pretty bought in on Holliday at this point. If the Nats are scared off by the hit tool, I'm fine with Anderson or Arnold as floor pitching prospects.

If they go Willets, I want to see some aggressive with our other high picks.

[zimm_da_kid]

Even if we went Holliday and he demanded the biggest bonus ever, it would still save us $1M for later rounds. Willits would probably get closer to $8M-$8.5M, saving us $2.5M+

Just please no on these college arms

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Every Dylan Crews retrospect I read ignores fact everyone in baseball would have jumped on Crews at #2. A glove that plays in CF and a bat that punished the SEC for three seasons.

Also, why are we acting like Dylan Crews is Elijah Green? I'm far from writing him off.

Because everything right now is the worst thing ever. We're in the eeyore phase of the season.

[imref]

ESPN's Kiley McDaniel's latest mock has us taking Anderson:

Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
Rank: 1

There is a lot of uncertainty at this pick after the firing of GM Mike Rizzo. The effect, if you believe the buzz in the industry, is that Anderson is now a little more likely to be the pick. I think it stands at about a 55% chance it will be Anderson, 35% for Ethan Holliday and 10% for Eli Willits/others.

Willits and maybe Liam Doyle seem to be the leading cut-rate options rather than prep ace Seth Hernandez, which may be another effect of interim GM Mike DeBartolo rather than Rizzo being at the helm.

[welch]

Who in the second round? Nats should have the top pick in each round, so their other picks shou;d matter...

[nobleisthyname]

Who in the second round? Nats should have the top pick in each round, so their other picks shou;d matter...

The lottery only applies to the first round I believe. Later rounds go by your record. The Nats pick 6th overall in the second round (49th overall).

https://www.mlb.com/draft/2025/order

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

The utter disappointment I will feel if they take a dude who’s already had TJ with the idea of fast tracking him to the majors will be pretty strong.

[imref]

I'm sold on Willets at this point, but would be fine with taking Holliday as well. Agreed that Anderson isn't a 1-1.

[imref]

Because everything right now is the worst thing ever. We're in the eeyore phase of the season.

Decade, but I see your point.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Longenhagen's final top 5:

Doyle
Holliday
Anderson
Arquette
Willits

Has Doyle and Holliday as high risk 55s. Next 6 he has as 50s. Names we have not discussed are 2 college pitchers, kyson Witherspoon and Tyler Bremner, and Kayson Cunningham (hs 2b).

[varoadking]

MLB.com has Holliday #1...

https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/draft