2025 MLB Draft

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Todd Boss' final look at draft prospects:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19024

His take:
I don't think this is accurate, at least not as of late. The Nats haven't taken a college arm with their first pick since Cavalli in 2020 (and Rutledge in 2019). Denaburg in 2018 was a high scool pitcher. 16 & 17 were college arms (Dunning and the mother of all draft busts: Seth Romero). Fedde was a college arm in 2014. Giolito came out of high school in 2012.

So at least more recently, the Nats have prioritized high school hitters (House, Green, King) plus Crews.

I still think they go Holliday.

King was college.

Boss is still right about the body type Rizzo prefers in pitchers. Even some of the later-round picks fit the type. If he goes to form (best player regardless of cost), then it's Holliday, but Boss mentions Anderson at below slot (haircut) as a possibility. Interesting that Boss doesn't talk about Hernandez, who Callis pitched.

[IanRubbish]

Todd Boss' final look at draft prospects:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=19024

His take:
I don't think this is accurate, at least not as of late. The Nats haven't taken a college arm with their first pick since Cavalli in 2020 (and Rutledge in 2019). Denaburg in 2018 was a high scool pitcher. 16 & 17 were college arms (Dunning and the mother of all draft busts: Seth Romero). Fedde was a college arm in 2014. Giolito came out of high school in 2012.

So at least more recently, the Nats have prioritized high school hitters (House, Green, King) plus Crews.

I still think they go Holliday.

He says "But, they love taking big body college arms with their first picks (a moniker that describes most of the 1st rounders in the Rizzo era)"

Yup, Rizzo is all about man crushes.  "Big body" arms who can't throw strikes or stay healthy, or speedy legs who can't hit.  But he's also not a risk taker beyond his own ineptitude, so I'd be surprised if they didn't go with Holliday.  He's also in a CYA relationship with Mini Me, and doesn't want to justify doing something unexpected with a #1 pick. 

[imref]

As I noted, Rizzo hasn't taken a "big body college arm" since Cavalli in 2020. They have drastically shifted draft approach since the run on pitchers from 14 to 19 after all were busts.

[IanRubbish]

As I noted, Rizzo hasn't taken a "big body college arm" since Cavalli in 2020. They have drastically shifted draft approach since the run on pitchers from 14 to 19 after all were busts.

Yes, it's been "toolsy" speedy guys who can't hit since then.  The college hitters picked right after Seaver King all have much better numbers than he does in the minors, Rizzo never learns from his mistakes.  The Mets just promoted Carson Benge to AA after he put up a .415 OBP in High A.  Kaelen Culpepper plays SS in the Twins org and just got promoted to AA after putting up an .864 OPS in High A.  It's actually depressing to see how badly Rizzo did last year.  Still, a number one overall is different.   

[imref]

Yes, it's been "toolsy" speedy guys who can't hit since then.  The college hitters picked right after Seaver King all have much better numbers than he does in the minors, Rizzo never learns from his mistakes.  The Mets just promoted Carson Benge to AA after he put up a .415 OBP in High A.  Kaelen Culpepper plays SS in the Twins org and just got promoted to AA after putting up an .864 OPS in High A.  It's actually depressing to see how badly Rizzo did last year.  Still, a number one overall is different.   

Huh? Brady House can't hit?

King is at AA already. Yes, Lomavita has hit at A+ (.751 OPS) and probably heads to AA before long. Luke Dickerson has a .718 OPS at A-ball.

Bazell hasn't hit so far this year.  Randall Diaz (5th round) has a .617 OPS at A. He's not hitting for power but he's getting on base and stealing bases.

[IanRubbish]

Huh? Brady House can't hit?

King is at AA already. Yes, Lomavita has hit at A+ (.751 OPS) and probably heads to AA before long. Luke Dickerson has a .718 OPS at A-ball.

Bazell hasn't hit so far this year.  Randall Diaz (5th round) has a .617 OPS at A. He's not hitting for power but he's getting on base and stealing bases.

Brady House is the only one with any hope among all first rounders since Rendon.  Look up the college hitters drafted 11-20 after Seaver King, gave you a few examples, there are more.  Most are doing much better than his .572 OPS at AA.  But Rizzo got a man crush on his speed, so he took him early and here we are.

[NatsLSU]

5 walks, 2 hit batters against Low A talent is being an animal?


Hard pass on this dude. He's wild, he already had TJS, and he is increasing his velo. That elbow is a ticking time bomb

You just enjoy being a miserable contrarian, I get it. Everyone has their part to play on a message board. Only the third complete game shutout seen in the current era of the World Series finals. Ho hum. Coastal was one of the best teams in the country getting HBP.

[Mattionals]

You just enjoy being a miserable contrarian, I get it. Everyone has their part to play on a message board. Only the third complete game shutout seen in the current era of the World Series finals. Ho hum. Coastal was one of the best teams in the country getting HBP.

So is It Anderson? Will his fastball play up?

[Slateman]

You just enjoy being a miserable contrarian, I get it. Everyone has their part to play on a message board. Only the third complete game shutout seen in the current era of the World Series finals. Ho hum. Coastal was one of the best teams in the country getting HBP.

So he got lucky. Cool, I guess.

He's already had one TJS. Now he's got a velo bump out of nowhere. Despite that velo bump, there is nothing else he has that would get him consideration for #1 overall, or even the first pitcher off the board.

Sorry, it ain't being contrarian. You've said multiple times that he's not even the best pitcher on your team. This is an easy decision at this point. This team is competing in the next two years. You take Holliday or Hernandez and have talent for the next ownership group to grow.

[NatsLSU]

So he got lucky. Cool, I guess.

He's already had one TJS. Now he's got a velo bump out of nowhere. Despite that velo bump, there is nothing else he has that would get him consideration for #1 overall, or even the first pitcher off the board.

Sorry, it ain't being contrarian. You've said multiple times that he's not even the best pitcher on your team. This is an easy decision at this point. This team is competing in the next two years. You take Holliday or Hernandez and have talent for the next ownership group to grow.

I won’t be upset if we go Doyle over Anderson but it better not be Holliday if we are in win now. The Holliday replacement for Wood however is the most realistic and sobering option. I’d love to go Doyle first round and maybe Eyanson still slips to the second round. Chase Shores is someone to look at too. Just an abundance of pitching talent down in the bayou.

[welch]

I won’t be upset if we go Doyle over Anderson but it better not be Holliday if we are in win now. The Holliday replacement for Wood however is the most realistic and sobering option. I’d love to go Doyle first round and maybe Eyanson still slips to the second round. Chase Shores is someone to look at too. Just an abundance of pitching talent down in the bayou.

What on earth causes such pitching to land at LSU?

I still want the Nats to draft Holliday. Keep the pipeline going.

[Slateman]

What on earth causes such pitching to land at LSU?

I still want the Nats to draft Holliday. Keep the pipeline going.

It doesn't. Prior to Skenes, the best pitcher to come out of LSU was Ben McDonald. Yes, that one. If we want an abundance of pitching talent, just go look at Wake Forrest.

This year's class is weak, particularly at the college level. None of these pitchers are the first pitcher off the board in the last three draft classes, let alone worthy of #1 overall selection. Once again, MLB screwed us with this draft lottery bullcrap. Pick here needs to be Holliday. Get a young, HS player with huge pedigree and a ton of power. New ownership and new GM can build a developmental system around that. Only reason to go with someone else would be to save draft pool money and use it to convince a player like Steele Hall or Kayson Cunningham to forgo college and come to minor league ball.

[Natsinpwc]

It doesn't. Prior to Skenes, the best pitcher to come out of LSU was Ben McDonald. Yes, that one. If we want an abundance of pitching talent, just go look at Wake Forrest.

This year's class is weak, particularly at the college level. None of these pitchers are the first pitcher off the board in the last three draft classes, let alone worthy of #1 overall selection. Once again, MLB screwed us with this draft lottery bullcrap. Pick here needs to be Holliday. Get a young, HS player with huge pedigree and a ton of power. New ownership and new GM can build a developmental system around that. Only reason to go with someone else would be to save draft pool money and use it to convince a player like Steele Hall or Kayson Cunningham to forgo college and come to minor league ball.

No love for Aaron Nola? First round pick and better career ERA than McDonald.  You missed  on that comment.

[Slateman]

No love for Aaron Nola? First round pick and better career ERA than McDonald.  You missed  on that comment.

Fair enough. Nola is the best. Ironically, not the first pitcher taken in that draft.

Point is, LSU is just another college baseball team. Its basically Low A ball. There's nothing special about it that you can't find in other schools. Its not like we're talking about Vandy here.

[blue911]

When it comes to player development, major college programs far exceed the pros.


Ethan Holliday’s grandfather was a D1 coach for over 40 years. Bring gramps along to run player development.

[Mattionals]

Again, I really hope they go pitcher here. I prefer Doyle over Anderson for the upside but I understand the risk.

[varoadking]

Mark will tell Rizzo to take whoever Boras tells Mark he should take...

[Slateman]

That's a good point. Who are the Boras clients?

[imref]

Anderson is being advised by Boras.

[imref]

New MLB Pipeline mock has us taking Anderson at #1.

Top 5:
1. Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
2. Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
3. Aiva Arquette - SS, Oregon State
4. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (OK) HS
5. Jamie Arnold - LHP, Florida State

BBA released their new mock today but it's behind a paywall. They note a new #1 whom I assume is also Anderson.

ESPN also has Anderson going #1:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45597881/2025-mlb-mock-draft-experts-picks-first-round-trades-kade-anderson-liam-doyle-ethan-holliday

lots of arguments that Anderson's timeline best fits the Nats need for starting pitching over the next two years.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

New MLB Pipeline mock has us taking Anderson at #1.

Top 5:
1. Kade Anderson, LHP, LSU
2. Liam Doyle, LHP, Tennessee
3. Aiva Arquette - SS, Oregon State
4. Ethan Holliday, SS/3B, Stillwater (OK) HS
5. Jamie Arnold - LHP, Florida State

BBA released their new mock today but it's behind a paywall. They note a new #1 whom I assume is also Anderson.

ESPN also has Anderson going #1:
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/45597881/2025-mlb-mock-draft-experts-picks-first-round-trades-kade-anderson-liam-doyle-ethan-holliday

lots of arguments that Anderson's timeline best fits the Nats need for starting pitching over the next two years.

That's a silly reason to pick someone.

[Mattionals]

That's a silly reason to pick someone.

With no clear cut number 1, I feel like this makes sense. Quick moving for a team that for all intents and purposes should be through the rebuild is what is needed.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

With no clear cut number 1, I feel like this makes sense. Quick moving for a team that for all intents and purposes should be through the rebuild is what is needed.

We're 14 games under .500 and in last place in the NL East. This team has no business drafting anybody with the need for them to start in the next two years. If Holliday is the best player in the draft, take him. Just my opinion.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

A third approach would be to see who will sign below slot to allow the team to use the money for later draftees. This is pretty common. Pirates did it with Skenes. When there's no clear cut best player, this may make sense.

Boras clients don't do it. Holliday is a Boras client. If he's the best, then take him, but I'm not sure there's much of a difference in the top 5. I'll defer to others on that.

[zimm_da_kid]

A third approach would be to see who will sign below slot to allow the team to use the money for later draftees. This is pretty common. Pirates did it with Skenes. When there's no clear cut best player, this may make sense.

Boras clients don't do it. Holliday is a Boras client. If he's the best, then take him, but I'm not sure there's much of a difference in the top 5. I'll defer to others on that.

A third approach would be to see who will sign below slot to allow the team to use the money for later draftees. This is pretty common. Pirates did it with Skenes. When there's no clear cut best player, this may make sense.

Boras clients don't do it. Holliday is a Boras client. If he's the best, then take him, but I'm not sure there's much of a difference in the top 5. I'll defer to others on that.

Exactly. Unless the nats think one of the top guys is clear cut, you take whichever of the top tier will take the biggest haircut. Saving $2-$3 million basically turns our second rounder into a mid-first rounder.