2025 MLB Draft

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

A third approach would be to see who will sign below slot to allow the team to use the money for later draftees. This is pretty common. Pirates did it with Skenes. When there's no clear cut best player, this may make sense.

Boras clients don't do it. Holliday is a Boras client. If he's the best, then take him, but I'm not sure there's much of a difference in the top 5. I'll defer to others on that.

I think this is a bit of revisionist history though. By the time the draft rolled around the Skenes hype was off the charts. Even if he took under slot by that point he was seemingly the best player available. I do agree there doesn't seem to be a clearcut #1 in this draft but for however long its been Holliday has been put there by almost everyone. So maybe there is a clearcut #1? I mean, who knows I guess? Anderson just scares me.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I am biased towards position players due to the injury risk. I also prefer less projection, so that tends towards college over high school. So Crews was a perfect pick for me. Shows what I know.

[Slateman]

That's a silly reason to pick someone.

It is.

[Smithian]

This draft really doesn't excite me at the top. I lean toward taking the biggest swing, which is probably Holliday. Also in Holliday's favor is my opinion our low minors are barren right now. Lots of interesting prospects in Wilmington, Harrisburg, but Fredericksburg is not fun to look at.

If they draft a player willing to take less money, I'll need to see what happens at #49 and beyond.

I'm not big on timelines when it comes to the draft unless you're competitive. In 2010's, I would always favor going college guys and players who may be ready sooner. Now, when Nats are bad? Upside, upside, upside. It's why I'm still fine with the Elijah Green pick. I'd prefer take a swing on the guy with some elite tools over a player you profile as safe role player.

[imref]

i'm torn. There are still concerns about Holliday's swing and I hate for him to become Green 2.0. I'm intrigued by the prospect of Anderson potentially arriving next year, along with Sykora, giving us a heck of a rotation with Gore, Sykora, Anderson, Irvin, and Parker, potentially with Cavalli moving into the bullpen.

[IanRubbish]

Anderson is only 6' 2", below the height needed for Rizzo to get a man crush.  All his first round pitching busts were 6' 4" or higher. 

Anderson also does not have the kind of numbers Paul Skenes did at LSU.

[imref]

Anderson is only 6' 2", below the height needed for Rizzo to get a man crush.  All his first round pitching busts were 6' 4" or higher. 

Anderson also does not have the kind of numbers Paul Skenes did at LSU.

Nobody should be comparing Anderson to Skenes. The only pitcher to come out of college in the last 20 years with comparable hype/numbers was Strasburg (maybe Cole too?)

[Smithian]

i'm torn. There are still concerns about Holliday's swing and I hate for him to become Green 2.0. I'm intrigued by the prospect of Anderson potentially arriving next year, along with Sykora, giving us a heck of a rotation with Gore, Sykora, Anderson, Irvin, and Parker, potentially with Cavalli moving into the bullpen.

I really like Seaver King as a prospect. I think he may really turn into Amed Rosario and be an across the field player who in a hot streak can player every day. There's value here!

Elijah Green is probably not making it past Wilmington. But he has a few monster tools and if he were to start hitting above the Mendoza line, he could be a star defense and power outfielder. Given the choice, I’d still take Green, betting on his upside and hoping he finally clicks in a hypothetical second chance, because players with that ceiling are far harder to find than solid role players.

[Slateman]

There's no way Holliday becomes Elijah Green. Not with his dad around.

[imref]

There's no way Holliday becomes Elijah Green. Not with his dad around.

yeah, that's an extreme case, but i meant more that he fails to live up to the hype and maintains a high K rate.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

I'm not the biggest fan of taking High Schoolers early but this does seem a lot easier than its being made out to be. Take Holliday. And if you don't want to take him take the flame thrower in Doyle. I just don't think I can trust Anderson and his arm. I know TJ has become not as much of a big deal but if it happens again he's all but done for the most part.

[blue911]

I'm not the biggest fan of taking High Schoolers early but this does seem a lot easier than its being made out to be. Take Holliday. And if you don't want to take him take the flame thrower in Doyle. I just don't think I can trust Anderson and his arm. I know TJ has become not as much of a big deal but if it happens again he's all but done for the most part.

The Nats don’t develop college players either. So any argument about high school vs college doesn’t really matter. Holliday comes with a built in coaching staff far superior to what the Nats masquerade as player development.

[varoadking]

yeah, that's an extreme case, but i meant more that he fails to live up to the hype and maintains a high K rate.

Like Crews...

[welch]

Ethan Holiday named BA high school Player of the Year

Ethan Holliday remembers his freshman year fondly.

As a first-year third baseman for Stillwater (Okla.) High, he got to play alongside the best high school player in America. He also called that shortstop his brother.

He watched as MLB scouts dissected every grounder fielded and analyzed every at-bat taken by Jackson Holliday, who was on his way to a national-record 89 hits in a single season. Jackson was the Baseball America High School Player of the Year in 2022.

Now, three years later, Ethan finds himself in a similar situation. Scouts, crosscheckers and MLB decision-makers descended on Stillwater to watch the 18-year-old shortstop as he showcased himself as the top high school prospect for the 2025 draft.

Like his brother before him, Ethan Holliday is the Baseball America High School Player of the Year. Jackson and Ethan are the first high school brother tandem to each be honored as POY.

But the one aspect Lees saw the senior shortstop take his greatest leap in the two years coaching him was something neither coach nor father could force.

“Leadership,” Lees said. “I think that sometimes it takes time for kids to develop that … This year, he was always getting our kids together, always trying to make them believe that they’re better than what they were, and he was coaching them.”

Unprompted, the longtime coach gave his own ranking for the top prep prospect in the country.

“He’ll be the best player I ever coach, and I’ve coached some big leaguers in my life—had several kids drafted—but there’s going to be nobody better than Ethan Holliday as a player and as a person,” Lees said.

“I’ve had some really good ones, but I’m excited for his future.”

Because of that potential—which resulted in a .611 batting average with 19 home runs this season—high school teams became afraid of pitching to Holliday.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/ethan-holliday-named-baseball-americas-2025-high-school-baseball-player-of-the-year/

[nobleisthyname]

I think this is a bit of revisionist history though. By the time the draft rolled around the Skenes hype was off the charts. Even if he took under slot by that point he was seemingly the best player available. I do agree there doesn't seem to be a clearcut #1 in this draft but for however long its been Holliday has been put there by almost everyone. So maybe there is a clearcut #1? I mean, who knows I guess? Anderson just scares me.

Maybe I'm the one misremembering but I the way I remember it being is as a legitimate toss-up between Crews and Skenes, and the Pirates leaning Skenes was more due to him being willing to sign for underslot rather than because they thought he was clearly the better player.

I know I was hoping for the Pirates to draft Skenes because I figured he would be gone for at least 1.5 years of the team control the Nats had due to TJ while Crews was plenty hyped in his own right as the best position player prospect in years.

As for this year's draft though I don't have any strong opinions. With the rebuild looking like it's stalling out I guess I lean towards taking the high schooler with more upside.

[welch]

Best I remember, Crews and Skenes were even, and the Nats were thought to want Skenes as the next Strasburg. Some here guessed that the Pirates would pick Crews because he would be a hitting star immediately, while it would take longer to build a team around a pitcher. I don't remember anything about the Pirates wanting their pick to sign under-slot.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

Well.....what now lol

[Slateman]

Well.....what now lol

Not sure a whole changes at this point. It was probably an either/or decision anyway.

Current interim GM is very data/analytics focused. Not sure if that pertains to the draft, but I would imagine that college players have way more data on them than HSers

[nobleisthyname]

Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen had some thoughts on the upcoming draft pick in light of the Rizzo firing as part of his writeup of that Nationals' farm system:

Chances are that Nationals VP of amateur scouting Danny Haas and senior director of amateur scouting Brad Ciolek are more intimately familiar with Washington’s options at pick no. 1 than Rizzo was, but Rizzo was no doubt involved in the process of communicating with agents and ownership about the decision, and now is no longer in the room. There’s continuity of thought here — it’s not as if all of the scouting reports collected under Rizzo walked out the door with him — but there are personnel dominoes falling at a very inconvenient time, which adds a degree of difficulty to a process the Nats kind of have to nail.

The player Washington selects first will most likely slot in at no. 3 in this system behind Sykora and Susana, as Crews has graduated. Nobody in this draft class can touch their combination of upside and proximity, though Sykora’s early removal from his last start prior to list publication makes his situation murkier. The Nats have nothing in the way of comp picks in this year’s draft, but that 1.1 bonus slot is so big that they might be able to get creative and throw money around in the later rounds anyway, though who knows whether the change at GM will have any impact on their level of comfort with getting frisky. Washington has taken high school players with hit tool question marks in the early rounds over the last while (Brady House, Elijah Green), with mixed results. It puts them in play for Ethan Holliday (who had a mediocre 73% contact rate on the showcase circuit) with the first pick.

[Kevrock]

They’ll go safe now. Holliday or Anderson. Can’t picture them taking Hernandez or getting creative.

[Mattionals]

If you are going safe, it's probably Anderson.

[Kevrock]

Not safe in the development sense, safe in a PR sense. There will be a lot of eyes on this selection after the Lerners canned the GM the same week as the draft. Holliday and Anderson are 1-1 on all the mocks.

Some dude with 12 years experience gonna sell this ownership group on some pool money play or taking the first HSRHP in history 1-1? I can’t see it.

[HondoKillebrew]

Not safe in the development sense, safe in a PR sense. There will be a lot of eyes on this selection after the Lerners canned the GM the same week as the draft. Holliday and Anderson are 1-1 on all the mocks.

Some dude with 12 years experience gonna sell this ownership group on some pool money play or taking the first HSRHP in history 1-1? I can’t see it.

That’s how I see it. 

[varoadking]

I think we're gonna find that Mark has already told Boras that we're taking Holliday and that we've already settled on the money as well...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

You are allowed to prenegotiate with 1-1 candidates.