2025 MLB Draft

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Seems every mock draft now has us taking Ethan Holliday.

is that, "he's clearly the best" or is it more based on Rizzo's drafting patterns?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

is that, "he's clearly the best" or is it more based on Rizzo's drafting patterns?

Its not even really either of those. More so this is the guy who we think is going here and no real reason why lol

[imref]

Its not even really either of those. More so this is the guy who we think is going here and no real reason why lol

he's the top rated prospect in this years draft in most evaluations.

Pitcherlist.com is out with their latest mock, with Holliday going to us.

Unlike his brother, Jackson, Ethan is a power-over-hit prospect. Standing in at 6’4″, 200 lbs, Ethan has present big-league raw power. Last summer, the power did not show up consistently in game against the top competition, but those concerns have been alleviated after an elite spring.

The question surrounding Ethan will be his ability to hit for average. There is a lot more swing and miss in his game, and as already mentioned, he struggled against some of the top competition last summer. He will need plenty of development to reach his ceiling, and I don’t know if the Nationals are the organization to maximize his potential. If it all clicks with Holliday, he has the potential to be a superstar with his raw tools.

Same for bleacher nation:

Ethan has a legitimate chance to be the best Holliday of the bunch, making him the clear-cut top prospect in the 2025 class, even if the Nationals go in a different direction here. Holliday generates power from the left side with ease, making him a 30-35 home run threat at the major league level when he arrives. Despite good movement for his size at shortstop, he likely moves to third base at some point before he reaches the majors. Holliday profiles as a power threat with an above-average glove and arm at third base when all is said and done.

[Kevrock]

is that, "he's clearly the best" or is it more based on Rizzo's drafting patterns?

He’s the best overall according to most sources, and he’s been pretty stable in that position. Several others that were in the 1-1 convo slid down this spring. Then you have Anderson, Hernandez, and Doyle with a lot of helium. Hernandez might be the best overall talent but is a High School RHP, and a HS RHP has never gone 1-1.

Its not even really either of those. More so this is the guy who we think is going here and no real reason why lol

Uh, no.

[Kevrock]

I’d also say that Rizzo doesn’t have “drafting patterns” except he goes BPA and doesn’t give a crap what anyone thinks. That’s why Callis last month had Hernandez as the second most likely to go to the Nats because the talent is enormous and if Rizzo thinks he’s BPA, Rizzo is taking him, historical precedent be damned.

[Kevrock]

Holliday has a sweet swing btw

https://www.mlb.com/video/2025-draft-ethan-holliday-ss-3b

[Smithian]

I really like Aiva Arquette but doesn't feel in play. Jamie Arnold is also there.

I don't love high schoolers #1 but Ethan Holliday has grown on me. The potential is high, may as well go for it in a draft without an exciting college prospect. If it works out, he could make it to DC as a big time rookie slugger about the time our current run of young hitters are in midst of arbitration.

[nobleisthyname]

How do Holliday's hit tool concerns compare to Elijah Green's? Are the Nats really the team to develop him into a major league talent?

[imref]

How do Holliday's hit tool concerns compare to Elijah Green's? Are the Nats really the team to develop him into a major league talent?

Here's what Callis has:

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 65 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 60

Ever since Jackson Holliday went No. 1 overall in the 2022 Draft, he has told people that his younger brother is better than he was at the same stage. Ethan is more physical and powerful than Jackson and much more closely resembles their father, seven-time All-Star Matt. Both brothers scuffled on the showcase circuit entering their Draft years, but while Jackson was considered a second-round talent at that point, Ethan is a leading candidate to get taken No. 1 in July.

Holliday may have the most usable left-handed power in the Draft and he generates it with little effort. Still adding to his 6-foot-4 frame, he already has plenty of strength and an easy left-handed swing with plenty of bat speed and leverage. He tried to do too much when he got pitched around on the circuit last summer, leading to some swing-and-miss concerns, but he should develop into at least an average hitter with 35-homer pop and plenty of walks.

Holliday moves well for his size and has average speed, though he'll probably lose a step as he continues to mature physically. He has nice actions and solid arm strength at shortstop, but he won't cover enough ground to stay there on a long-term basis. The Oklahoma State recruit projects better as a slugging third baseman and could be a quality defender on the hot corner.

Green is currently: Hit: 30 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 40

[Kevrock]

Green doesn’t have much in common at all with Holliday.

[IanRubbish]

I’d also say that Rizzo doesn’t have “drafting patterns” except he goes BPA and doesn’t give a crap what anyone thinks. That’s why Callis last month had Hernandez as the second most likely to go to the Nats because the talent is enormous and if Rizzo thinks he’s BPA, Rizzo is taking him, historical precedent be damned.

What???  His drafting patterns couldn't be clearer.

Rizzo has said himself he looks for "tools" or "toolsy" players and has referred to "retooling".  He's followed this up by drafting guys who give him man crushes for physique, powerful arms, or speed, which often have nothing to do with getting on base, throwing strikes, or staying healthy, which is why he's had so many draft busts.

[IanRubbish]

How do Holliday's hit tool concerns compare to Elijah Green's? Are the Nats really the team to develop him into a major league talent?

Very similar with Holliday being so patient that some scouts call him "too passive" at the plate.  This org has been a bad fit for Green with its de-emphasis of walks and patience, and with the top drafted hitting prospects including Lile, Crews, and House all being fairly aggressive swingers who will not threaten the OBP leadership board.  Moreover, they took free swinging Seaver King at 10 last year, well before most observers thought he would go.  There has been some good news lately with Luke Dickerson, but he's less than 100 PAs into Low A ball. Just have to hope Holliday is that good, and will overcome the poor coaching and the instructions to Keibert at pitches out of the zone.

[Kevrock]

What???  His drafting patterns couldn't be clearer.

Rizzo has said himself he looks for "tools" or "toolsy" players and has referred to "retooling".  He's followed this up by drafting guys who give him man crushes for physique, powerful arms, or speed, which often have nothing to do with getting on base, throwing strikes, or staying healthy, which is why he's had so many draft busts.

I think you're showing some recency bias here, as well as just making the conversation weird.

Assuming we're focusing on first round, Rizzo has drafted some "toolsy" players lately lately with Green and King, especially (IMO) taking Green over a more polished college bat in Brooks Lee. One head scratcher for me was Goodwin over Jackie Bradley, Jr. although I don't think Goodwin was "toolsy" really.

But Rizzo had a run on college pitching also, which actually drew the ire of this board with folks accusing him of preferring college arms to the type of player you're describing. He has drafted more college players than high school players, and recently he took Crews over the toolsy Max Clark.

Anyway, I don't think there's a "toolsy" bias at all. I think it's just pure BPA and he's leaned a bit into high ceiling during the rebuild. And I think Holliday or Hernandez will be the pick, because they have the highest ceiling and he'll have one of them as BPA.

But who knows, really.

[varoadking]

Seems every mock draft now has us taking Ethan Holliday.

As it should...IMHO...

[nobleisthyname]

Green is currently: Hit: 30 | Power: 60 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 40

I think the more pertinent comparison would be Green's scouting grade in 2022.

[imref]

I think the more pertinent comparison would be Green's scouting grade in 2022.

Hit: 45/55 | Power: 60/70 | Run: 70 | Arm: 60 | Field: 60 | Overall: 60

https://www.azsnakepit.com/2022/7/6/23197002/2022-draft-preview-elijah-green-of

if you go back and read the reports on Green, scouts loved the guy.

[Kevrock]

Green was 50 hit 60 power and 70 speed by MLB pipeline, but had extreme risk on that hit rating. He was more of a freak athlete type.

[welch]

BA has Holliday at Number 1:

1. Ethan Holliday
SS

Ht: 6'4" | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R

School: Stillwater (Okla.) HS Drafted/Committed: Oklahoma State
Age At Draft: 18.4
BA Grade: 60/High

Orioles shortstop Jackson Holliday—son of seven time all-star outfielder Matt Holliday—was the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft out of high school. Like the Upton brothers when B.J. was the No. 2 overall pick in the 2002 draft and Justin went No. 1 overall in 2005, Ethan Holliday could join his older brother as another elite draft pick. Scouts have seen Ethan plenty of times already since he was a freshman when he was high school teammates with Jackson during his 2022 draft year, and Ethan has grown bigger and stronger since then. Built more like his father than his brother, Ethan’s ease of operation in the batter’s box stands out. Holliday showcases a smooth, compact swing from the left side with good rhythm and balance. He tracks pitches extremely well, maintaining a disciplined approach to draw plenty of walks. There is some swing-and-miss to his game, but Holliday has a mature offensive mindset, controlling the strike zone and using the whole field. Holliday drives the ball well now and doesn’t have to sell out to generate that power, with the upside to develop into a 30-plus home run threat. At shortstop, Holliday is a fundamentally sound defender for his age, though at his size, there’s a good chance he outgrows the position and ends up at third base in pro ball, with the middle-of-the-order offensive upside that would project well in a corner outfield spot too.

Scouting Grades: Hit: 55. Power: 60. Run: 40. Field: 50. Arm: 55.

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

He’s the best overall according to most sources, and he’s been pretty stable in that position. Several others that were in the 1-1 convo slid down this spring. Then you have Anderson, Hernandez, and Doyle with a lot of helium. Hernandez might be the best overall talent but is a High School RHP, and a HS RHP has never gone 1-1.

Uh, no.

What do you mean "un, no."? Read the reports.

"The question surrounding Ethan will be his ability to hit for average. There is a lot more swing and miss in his game, and as already mentioned, he struggled against some of the top competition last summer. He will need plenty of development to reach his ceiling, and I don’t know if the Nationals are the organization to maximize his potential. If it all clicks with Holliday, he has the potential to be a superstar with his raw tools."

-Pitcher List

He hasn't been the best player. He's just the one most seem to think has the potential to be great in this class.

[Slateman]

18 and a 40 grade runner doesn't bode well

[Slateman]

I have to wonder if this past offseason is influencing Rizzo's decision. He tried to spend some money and had to withdraw Walker's offer. If he doesn't think ownership will open up the pocketbook, then his competitive window essentially starts next season and he has to trade at least one of Gore, Abrams, or Wood.

Holliday won't be ready by then. Arnold probably would be able to contribute to the MLB team in 2027

[Smithian]

What do you mean "un, no."? Read the reports.

"The question surrounding Ethan will be his ability to hit for average. There is a lot more swing and miss in his game, and as already mentioned, he struggled against some of the top competition last summer. He will need plenty of development to reach his ceiling, and I don’t know if the Nationals are the organization to maximize his potential. If it all clicks with Holliday, he has the potential to be a superstar with his raw tools."

-Pitcher List

He hasn't been the best player. He's just the one most seem to think has the potential to be great in this class.

That's where I'm at. Arquette and Arnold are picks I'd get exited about in the teens, but they just feel at #1. You can't win without stars, so I'm fine drafting the high ceiling, and that seems to be Ethan Holliday.

It's the same reason I liked the Elijah Green pick and still do. The guy hits nukes and is a freak athlete. They took a shot at seeing if they could get the hit tool passable. Didn't work. I prefer that over them taking a safer player with a clearer path to the majors.

[Slateman]

Yea, we shouldn't talk about Green ...

If there isn't a consensus #1 overall, then take whoever will sign for less between Arnold and Anderson, and use the money to get another Sykora or Dickerson

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Yea, we shouldn't talk about Green ...

If there isn't a consensus #1 overall, then take whoever will sign for less between Arnold and Anderson, and use the money to get another Sykora or Dickerson

then let's put it this way: if Skenes was willing to take less than full slot as 1/1 with Crews and Langford being talked about, then is Holliday as so clear of the field that we shouldn't consider moving on if he won't let us save a bit for later signees?

[SkinsNatFan21RIP]

then let's put it this way: if Skenes was willing to take less than full slot as 1/1 with Crews and Langford being talked about, then is Holliday as so clear of the field that we shouldn't consider moving on if he won't let us save a bit for later signees?

If it were me, I'd take Holliday. Even if this draft is weak there does seem to be a consensus for him at 1. I don't understand why but I'm also that deep into evaluations to understand what they all see to have him collectively at the top. However, if the pitcher from Tennessee or FSU will sign for less than go for it. I wouldn't like it and I think it sets a bad precedent for an already cheap ownership group but whatever.