The Rotation: 2024

[rbw5t]

Other than Gore no one is going to sustain those numbers. You’re living ina dream world.

Well, I think it’s possible Corbin finishes around 5.5.

[imref]

I’d hope Irvin improves on his 3.91

[JCA-CrystalCity]

even if you take out the home run suppression, Gore, Williams, Parker, and Irvin all have xFIPs under 4. Irvin, Gore, and Parker don't have super low BABIP or weirdly high strand rates (Irvin arguably is a bit snake bit at 60 LOB%). The latter 3 have 14% or higher K%-BB%. Williams is the only one who really looks unsustainable.

[imref]

We’ll soon find out.

[GataNats]

Other than Gore no one is going to sustain those numbers. You’re living ina dream world.

Corbin will sustain good or bad.  Irvin I think will even improve.   Williams needed to be traded two weeks ago.  Gore is going to become an ace

[Slateman]

even if you take out the home run suppression, Gore, Williams, Parker, and Irvin all have xFIPs under 4. Irvin, Gore, and Parker don't have super low BABIP or weirdly high strand rates (Irvin arguably is a bit snake bit at 60 LOB%). The latter 3 have 14% or higher K%-BB%. Williams is the only one who really looks unsustainable.

Corbin posting starts with three or fewer runs is completely unsustainable

[nobleisthyname]

Other than Gore no one is going to sustain those numbers. You’re living ina dream world.

By FIP:

No. 5 Starter: Patrick Corbin 4.15
No. 4 Starter: Jake Irvin 3.33
No. 3 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.17
No. 2 Starter: Mitchell Parker 3.46
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 2.83

I dont known if it will continue, but they haven't been getting lucky.

[Natsinpwc]

By FIP:

No. 5 Starter: Patrick Corbin 4.15
No. 4 Starter: Jake Irvin 3.33
No. 3 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.17
No. 2 Starter: Mitchell Parker 3.46
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 2.83

I dont known if it will continue, but they haven't been getting lucky.

I just don’t think the talent is there for most of them to keep it up. Only Gore is a future front end starter.

[nobleisthyname]

I think it's fair to be skeptical, but I also think this is undeniably a potential source of optimism for the team. Who knows, maybe having Doolittle really is making a difference.

It should also be noted offense is down in general this year. Average ERA across both leagues is 3.97. Maybe the Jake Irvins and Trevor Williams of the world are especially benefitting from that.

[Smithian]

Barring a winning streak, I'm one or two more good Trevor Williams starts from screaming at Rizzo to deal him while his value is high.

[Slateman]

By FIP:

No. 5 Starter: Patrick Corbin 4.15
No. 4 Starter: Jake Irvin 3.33
No. 3 Starter: MacKenzie Gore 3.17
No. 2 Starter: Mitchell Parker 3.46
No. 1 Starter: Trevor Williams 2.83

I dont known if it will continue, but they haven't been getting lucky.

That would be the lowest FIP of Trevor's career by a over a run, and a run and a half off his career as a starter. Corbin hasnt had a FIP that low since 2019.

We have the lowest HR/9 rate amongst starters in all of baseball. I think its pretty fair to wonder how sustainable that is, particularly for Irvin, Parker, and Gray.

[Slateman]

Barring a winning streak, I'm one or two more good Trevor Williams starts from screaming at Rizzo to deal him while his value is high.

Gotta have a buyer

[nobleisthyname]

That would be the lowest FIP of Trevor's career by a over a run, and a run and a half off his career as a starter. Corbin hasnt had a FIP that low since 2019.

We have the lowest HR/9 rate amongst starters in all of baseball. I think its pretty fair to wonder how sustainable that is, particularly for Irvin, Parker, and Gray.

I don't care about Corbin so I didn't even bother to check. But Irvin (3.82) and Parker (3.56) are still above average even by xFIP, which normalizes home run rate. Williams falls all the way to 4.03 by xFIP, but that's still roughly league average at least.

[nobleisthyname]

And to be clear, I have no expectation of Parker or Irvin becoming front line starters. But there's a chance they could turn into Roarks and be useful back of the rotation pieces that you aren't embarrassed to have taking the ball every five days while fielding a competitive team.

[Slateman]

I don't care about Corbin so I didn't even bother to check. But Irvin (3.82) and Parker (3.56) are still above average even by xFIP, which normalizes home run rate. Williams falls all the way to 4.03 by xFIP, but that's still roughly league average at least.

Yea, I just think trying to project this early in the season isnt feesible. We havent played a game above 85 degrees this season. Teams are already adjusting to Parker. I would expect to see Irvin to regress.

Like, you're right, these guys are fine for back of the rotation starters. But they are currently performing well above that, and we should be expecting some regression.

Gore is the only one on that list that I expect to be within half a run of their current ERA by the end of July.

[zimm_da_kid]

Other than Gore no one is going to sustain those numbers. You’re living ina dream world.

I think Irvin could sustain a 3.91

[Elvir Ovcina]

Twins complaining about Parker not throwing enough fastballs last night:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40188532/streaky-twins-hold-players-only-meeting-slide-hits-7

Boo freaking hoo.  If you sit fastball and the guy realizes that's what you're doing, enjoy the Moyer-level variety of slop.  That's called pitching.

And to be clear, I have no expectation of Parker or Irvin becoming front line starters. But there's a chance they could turn into Roarks and be useful back of the rotation pieces that you aren't embarrassed to have taking the ball every five days while fielding a competitive team.

I think a lot of people have miscontextualized Roark.  He put up two 200ish inning seasons as a starter with ERAs under 3.  On most teams that makes you a #1 or #2.  And yes, he was inconsistent and turned into a league average pitcher much of the rest of the time.  But he was far beyond avoiding embarrassment.  If either Parker or Irvin had Roark's career, I'd be ecstatic.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Twins complaining about Parker not throwing enough fastballs last night:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40188532/streaky-twins-hold-players-only-meeting-slide-hits-7

Boo freaking hoo.  If you sit fastball and the guy realizes that's what you're doing, enjoy the Moyer-level slop. That's called pitching.

I think a lot of people have miscontextualized Roark.  He put up two 200ish inning seasons as a starter with ERAs under 3.  On most teams that makes you a #1 or #2.  And yes, he was inconsistent and turned into a league average pitcher much of the rest of the time.  But he was far beyond avoiding embarrassment.  If either Parker or Irvin had Roark's career, I'd be ecstatic.

OOOOHHHH! What a great pull from history! Moyer never threw 94, but Parker's ability to flip junk, especially his curve, is classic lefty junkballing.

Not every young staff can be Seattle. I like it that guys like Irvin and Parker would get "Exceeds Expectations" on the mid-year performance reviews. Every team needs some exceeds expectations guys. I'd love it if they locked down the back end while Gore and maybe Cavalli, maybe Lara, maybe somebody else internal turns out to be 1-2-3 guys. 4 internals and a hired gun would make for a competitive rotation.

[Natsinpwc]

Maybe the Twins pitchers should throw more curve balls. Pretty emabarrasing to give up that many runs to the Nats.

[Natsinpwc]

OOOOHHHH! What a great pull from history! Moyer never threw 94, but Parker's ability to flip junk, especially his curve, is classic lefty junkballing.

Not every young staff can be Seattle. I like it that guys like Irvin and Parker would get "Exceeds Expectations" on the mid-year performance reviews. Every team needs some exceeds expectations guys. I'd love it if they locked down the back end while Gore and maybe Cavalli, maybe Lara, maybe somebody else internal turns out to be 1-2-3 guys. 4 internals and a hired gun would make for a competitive rotation.

I noticed you didn’t mention Gray. No one misses him. Poor Josiah.

[nobleisthyname]

I think a lot of people have miscontextualized Roark.  He put up two 200ish inning seasons as a starter with ERAs under 3.  On most teams that makes you a #1 or #2.  And yes, he was inconsistent and turned into a league average pitcher much of the rest of the time.  But he was far beyond avoiding embarrassment.  If either Parker or Irvin had Roark's career, I'd be ecstatic.

You're completely right, but that's kind of the point I was trying to make. Roark wasn't really a back of the rotation starter, he was at least a mid-level starter with occasional upside. Most truly competitive teams don't have actual back of the rotation starters on their team as anything more than depth. I think it's fair to say Irvin and Parker are showing flashes so far this year of being able to reach that level.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I noticed you didn’t mention Gray. No one misses him. Poor Josiah.

He could hold a rotation spot, too. I don't see him as better than Parker or Irvin at this point. Maybe he becomes a righty offspeed and breaking ball pitcher and peaks at a #3. There's a decent likelihood they have 4 better home grown pitchers in the rotation than him by the end of the year if Cavalli shows.

[Slateman]

Dont do a 6 man rotation. Gore and Gray need innings. Either stash Parker in the pen or send him down.

Thread clean up. The Injuries thread went on a tangent discussing how the rotation should look once Gray is activated, whether to go 6 man, deal Williams, move Corbin or another starter to the pen, or even send one of Parker or Irvin to AAA

[Slateman]

Twins complaining about Parker not throwing enough fastballs last night:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/40188532/streaky-twins-hold-players-only-meeting-slide-hits-7

Boo freaking hoo.  If you sit fastball and the guy realizes that's what you're doing, enjoy the Moyer-level variety of slop.  That's called pitching.

I think a lot of people have miscontextualized Roark.  He put up two 200ish inning seasons as a starter with ERAs under 3.  On most teams that makes you a #1 or #2.  And yes, he was inconsistent and turned into a league average pitcher much of the rest of the time.  But he was far beyond avoiding embarrassment.  If either Parker or Irvin had Roark's career, I'd be ecstatic.

Sounds more like Baldelli is disappointed in his players' inability to adjust.

[varoadking]

Dont do a 6 man rotation. Gore and Gray need innings. Either stash Parker in the pen or send him down.

Moving Corbin to the pen would make more sense...so we know they won't do that...