The Rotation: 2024

[Slateman]

https://x.com/markzuckerman/status/1802095848299360547?s=46

13+ strikeouts on fewer than 85 pitches since 1988:
Clayton Kershaw (4/13/22)
Greg Maddux (9/23/00)
DJ Herz (today)

[NatsLSU]

https://youtu.be/MNS-Ho5tWo0?feature=shared

Go DJ (Herz)

[imref]

Optstats:

DJ Herz of the @Nationals struck out 13 of the 19 batters he faced today (68.4%).

That's the second-highest strikeout percentage by any MLB rookie in a game in the modern era (min. 15 batters faced), behind only Kerry Wood in his 20-strikeout game on May 6, 1998 (69.0%).

[imref]

Projected starters for the next 3 games:

TUE: Irvin (RHP) vs Cecconi (RHP)
WED: Corbin (LHP) vs Pfaadt (RHP)
THU: Gore (LHP) vs Nelson (RHP)

[zimm_da_kid]

still think herz winds up in the bullpen long-term.  With lara and lord performing this well though, the nats will effectively have 8 viable candidates for a rotation slot next year without any additions.  Irvin and Gore should be the only true locks.  If parker can keep this up, he's a lock.  Gray would have to really show something to be a lock.  Lara might get stashed a bit at AA/AAA because he's still so young until the major league guys and Lord kind of sort themself out.  Could keep lara in the minors all of next year and make his debut in 2026 as only a 23 year old.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Makes some sense long term. Herz certainly and Parker probably will need to show they can avoid walks over the long term. Cavalli has to prove himself after the injury and against hitters, MLB or otherwise. Gray still needs to find his most effective pitch mix. I'm not sure he can throw 6 or 7 pitches well enough to use them all.

[welch]

Boz likes the Nats young rotation. Reminds him of Zimmermann, Gio, Roark. No ace, but all are very good.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/06/18/washington-nationals-starting-pitching/

[Dave in Fairfax]

still think herz winds up in the bullpen long-term.  With lara and lord performing this well though, the nats will effectively have 8 viable candidates for a rotation slot next year without any additions.  Irvin and Gore should be the only true locks.  If parker can keep this up, he's a lock.  Gray would have to really show something to be a lock.  Lara might get stashed a bit at AA/AAA because he's still so young until the major league guys and Lord kind of sort themself out.  Could keep lara in the minors all of next year and make his debut in 2026 as only a 23 year old.

That last start is only the third time ever at AA, AAA or MLB level that Herz has pitched into the 6th and only the second time he's finished the 6th. Especially if the team trades away bullpen arms at the deadline, it seems like he might be better there even in the short term.

[Senatorswin]

Now what do you do when Gray is ready? Corbin has had two really good starts. Herz had the best start of the year last time out. You're not taking Gore, Parker or Irvin out of the rotation. Nice problem to have but unexpected for sure at the beginning of the year. Six man rotation I guess. That might help the young guys.

[Smithian]

Now what do you do when Gray is ready? Corbin has had two really good starts. Herz had the best start of the year last time out. You're not taking Gore, Parker or Irvin out of the rotation. Nice problem to have but unexpected for sure at the beginning of the year. Six man rotation I guess. That might help the young guys.

I assume one of those guys not named Corbin is on some sort of inning plan. Throw them on the 15 day DL with “soreness” and by the time they’re eligible to return someone will be hurt or have been shelled a couple times.

In the very unlikely circumstance everyone keeps pitching well, I’m now certain Josiah Gray is too good to end up in the pen for some multiple inning situations. Gore, Irvin, Parker, Herz are too important to mess up their development, Gray doesn’t have that same shine even if I personally think he may still end up a passable backend starter for a winning team.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Now what do you do when Gray is ready? Corbin has had two really good starts. Herz had the best start of the year last time out. You're not taking Gore, Parker or Irvin out of the rotation. Nice problem to have but unexpected for sure at the beginning of the year. Six man rotation I guess. That might help the young guys.

I'm a bit Herz-skeptical. The last start was just so much out of nowhere that I don't want to say he needs to be in the MLB rotation until he backs it up with another couple of good starts.

I think there's a nice place for Herz in the MLB bullpen as an upgrade on either Weems or Rainey. While I like JBarnes, if there's a management decision to cast him loose in favor of the guys with team control, I will whine a bit but understand. Gettting a lefty multi-inning guy out there would give the Nats a second lefty, which is good for balance.

IF the Nats are strictly future-oriented during this run, then Corbin to the pen makes some sense, too.

[Slateman]

Gray needs at least one more start. Probably two. So thats a future decision.

Ultimately Im pretty skeptical about Herz ability to stay in the totation.  The Marlins are last against LHP and its not even close. But he can still be a good reliever.

[GburgNatsFan]

You could give some of these young pitchers half games - a planned  three and two third innings each. Or have one ready for when Corbin craps the bed during his next start.

Now what do you do when Gray is ready? Corbin has had two really good starts. Herz had the best start of the year last time out. You're not taking Gore, Parker or Irvin out of the rotation. Nice problem to have but unexpected for sure at the beginning of the year. Six man rotation I guess. That might help the young guys.

[Slateman]

You could give some of these young pitchers half games - a planned  three and two third innings each. Or have one ready for when Corbin craps the bed during his next start.

If we weren't wasting roster spots in Weems and Rainey, sure. But I dont think thats gonna work to well.

[imref]

Gray struggled with control in his latest rehab outing. Gotta think he gets at least one more.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Well, Herz didn't have it today, and failed last time, so how much longer to prove he's not ready? His one good outing was very good, but really, other than that one, what has he shown the other 4 times he's pitched?

[Slateman]

Probably should be in the rotation thread, but he clearly isnt ready yet. I think its pretty safe to send him down to see if he cant develop into a starter.

I think he is the kind of pitcher that can either be a back of the rotation guy that is wildly inconsistent, or a high strikeout reliever.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jake-irvin-stopped-walking-people-youll-never-guess-what-happened-next/

Baumann.  Favorite writer analyzing Jake Irvin's success.  Title is "Jake Irvin Stopped Walking People. You'll Never Guess What Happened Next." Makes you want click, right?

[KnorrForYourMoney]

Well, Herz didn't have it today, and failed last time, so how much longer to prove he's not ready? His one good outing was very good, but really, other than that one, what has he shown the other 4 times he's pitched?

He's a relief pitcher.  Small sample and all, but look at his splits under "times facing opponent":

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=herzdj01&year=2024&t=p#times

Could be our next Stammen or Clippard if that trend holds, and he's made into a reliever.

[Slateman]

He's a relief pitcher.  Small sample and all, but look at his splits under "times facing opponent":

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=herzdj01&year=2024&t=p#times

Could be our next Stammen or Clippard if that trend holds, and he's made into a reliever.

Can expand it a bit. He's only gotten through the 6th inning once this year. In 9 minor league starts, he to thr 5th 5 times.

In 22 starts, he got through the 5th inning 8 times.

Could be a really good reliever. Figure his velo gets a boost, he would sit 95 with cut, a devestating forkball/vulcan changeup, and develop a passable slider.

[nobleisthyname]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jake-irvin-stopped-walking-people-youll-never-guess-what-happened-next/

Baumann.  Favorite writer analyzing Jake Irvin's success.  Title is "Jake Irvin Stopped Walking People. You'll Never Guess What Happened Next." Makes you want click, right?

Is this the third article Baumann has written about a Nats pitcher this season? Pretty sure he had one for Gore and Harvey too (yep, he links to them in the article). Cool to have one of their more popular writers be apparently closely following the Nats.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Is this the third article Baumann has written about a Nats pitcher this season? Pretty sure he had one for Gore and Harvey too (yep, he links to them in the article). Cool to have one of their more popular writers be apparently closely following the Nats.

It must please Appelman. Doesn't he live in the area?

[aspenbubba]

I think Gray won’t be back this season and turns into a Joe Ross. Cavalli doesn’t post until August 20. Has Williams died and nobody told me. Herz cannot go more than 5 + without tiring. He sweats more than Stras.

[Slateman]

Williams isnt throwing yet. He had the same injury as Josiah.

Why August 20?

[aspenbubba]

Williams isnt throwing yet. He had the same injury as Josiah.

Why August 20?

Just a guess