2024 W-L Predictions

[JCA-CrystalCity]

slight tweak - 67-95. Beats the projections but a step back from last year's record.

2-15 would do it. Guess that's why I'm less frustrated by a few bad performances because they have been better than I expected. I'm thinking somewhere between 71 and 73 wins is where they  end up.

[IanRubbish]

A lot will depend on this weekend.  They could sweep or take 3 of 4, Marlins are not good.

[Natsinpwc]

I went 69-92 and assumed one rained out game. Think that will be too low. The Cubs and Mets will be playing hard but not sure about the Phillies and Royals. The Marlins do suck. Remember last year when they were the team in on the rise.

[IanRubbish]

Elimination magic number is 1. 

[OfftheBat]

We had to wait to be seated so ate soem empanadas from their bakery. Could have just made a meal of those.

I'll have to try them next time I visit

[IanRubbish]

This will be hard for many to take, but with both the Mets and Braves winning tonight, the Nats are now eliminated from the ‘24 playoffs.   

[Ali the Baseball Cat]

Suicide pact y'all!

Meh.

This will be hard for many to take, but with both the Mets and Braves winning tonight, the Nats are now eliminated from the ‘24 playoffs.   

[imref]

Are we still alive for 2025?

[IanRubbish]

Are we still alive for 2025?

Only if they don't re-sign Joey Gallo.

If you do the basic math, it looks like they could tie the Mets, who have 81 wins while the Nats have 81 losses, but the Mets win the tiebreaker due to taking the season series.  Moreover, the Mets and Braves still have to play three against each other, so one of those two will come out winning at least 82.  The Diamondbacks have already won 82 and the Padres 83, so all Wild Card teams have a clinched a minimum of 82 wins.

https://www.si.com/fannation/mlb/fastball/news/washington-nationals-become-latest-team-eliminated-from-mlb-playoff-contention-national-league-wild-card-race-01j7re33s5y1

[IanRubbish]

Royals break their 7 season streak of losing records.

Leaves Angels, Tigers, Pirates, Rockies, and Nats at 4+, though Tigers have a good chance of breaking their streak this year.

[Senatorswin]

Royals break their 7 season streak of losing records.

Leaves Angels, Tigers, Pirates, Rockies, and Nats at 4+, though Tigers have a good chance of breaking their streak this year.

and Nats next year.

[IanRubbish]

and Nats next year.

I'm getting a 75-80 win vibe for next year.  Fully expect they'll improve, but hard to see them topping the Mets, Braves, or Phillies, especially with play the contract, bad defense, high pitch counts, and bizarre baserunning blunders.

Feel like '27 could be the year when the Phillies contracts start to get old, the Mets have similar issues, and today's prospects here start peaking.

[varoadking]

I'm getting a 75-80 win vibe for next year.  Fully expect they'll improve, but hard to see them topping the Mets, Braves, or Phillies, especially with play the contract, bad defense, high pitch counts, and bizarre baserunning blunders.

Feel like '27 could be the year when the Phillies contracts start to get old, the Mets have similar issues, and today's prospects here start peaking.

Do we have any remaining bad contracts to play in 2025?

[IanRubbish]

Do we have any remaining bad contracts to play in 2025?

Only the retirements and deferrals of Stras, Max, and Corbin, and Keibert's contract, which add up to $54 million.  All the other deferrals and free agents are off the books.  Luis Garcia, CJ, Gore, Finnegan, and Rainey are all arb-eligible next year. 

[varoadking]

Only the retirements and deferrals of Stras, Max, and Corbin, and Keibert's contract, which add up to $54 million.  All the other deferrals and free agents are off the books.  Luis Garcia, CJ, Gore, Finnegan, and Rainey are all arb-eligible next year.

Forgot about Ruiz...yeah, that contract will play...

[IanRubbish]

They got the 3 of 4 they needed to from the Marlins, and clinched my preseason prediction of 68 wins.  Just need 4 of 13 now to top last year. 

[imref]

They have the opportunity to send the Mets a message about next season.

[Natsinpwc]

They have the opportunity to send the Mets a message about next season.

We’re not get but you’re not really much better?

[IanRubbish]

They have the opportunity to send the Mets a message about next season.

Message received loud and clear.

[IanRubbish]

With tonight's loss, the Nats tied the Angels for 4th most runs given up in MLB after the Rockies, Marlins, and White Sox.  They are only 6th worst in ERA, but runs against is worse due to unearned runs and defensive issues.

Current run deficit of 102 is likely to come in a little better than last year's 145.  The '22 team's 252 run deficit was the worst in the NL since the 2010 Pirates, and worst since the Nats came to DC, which says a lot considering we lived through the Acta/Riggleman era.  In total, the Nats have had 7 seasons of 100+ run deficits, assuming that this year meets that level. 

[nobleisthyname]

With tonight's loss, the Nats tied the Angels for 4th most runs given up in MLB after the Rockies, Marlins, and White Sox.  They are only 6th worst in ERA, but runs against is worse due to unearned runs and defensive issues.

Current run deficit of 102 is likely to come in a little better than last year's 145.  The '22 team's 252 run deficit was the worst in the NL since the 2010 Pirates, and worst since the Nats came to DC, which says a lot considering we lived through the Acta/Riggleman era.  In total, the Nats have had 7 seasons of 100+ run deficits, assuming that this year meets that level.

On the plus side, they are 10th in MLB in FIP, suggesting they should be better next season. On the other hand, the big discrepancy between FIP and ERA can probably be largely explained by terrible defense, which goes beyond just unearned runs and is much less likely to change for the better next season.

[imref]

7-11 in September. Free slurpies for everyone!

[Elvir Ovcina]

On the plus side, they are 10th in MLB in FIP, suggesting they should be better next season. On the other hand, the big discrepancy between FIP and ERA can probably be largely explained by terrible defense, which goes beyond just unearned runs and is much less likely to change for the better next season.

A fair amount of that is Corbin, who has a long-term gap between FIP and ERA (of more than a run this year), throws a lot of innings, and won't be around next year. 

[nobleisthyname]

A fair amount of that is Corbin, who has a long-term gap between FIP and ERA (of more than a run this year), throws a lot of innings, and won't be around next year.

It will help close the gap, but Corbin's FIP this season is still only 4.40 while the Nationals as a team have a 3.95 FIP, so him leaving should theoretically still be a net improvement on that front.

[Elvir Ovcina]

It will help close the gap, but Corbin's FIP this season is still only 4.40 while the Nationals as a team have a 3.95 FIP, so him leaving should theoretically still be a net improvement on that front.

Yes, but it'll improve the team ERA by even more than the FIP changes.  It's sorta a no-crap point that getting rid of a bad pitcher who throws lots of innings likely will improve the team's pitching stats overall.