Author Topic: 2024 W-L Predictions  (Read 4127 times)

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Offline imref

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #100: September 20, 2024, 11:18:17 AM »
Yes, but it'll improve the team ERA by even more than the FIP changes.  It's sorta a no-crap point that getting rid of a bad pitcher who throws lots of innings likely will improve the team's pitching stats overall.
that of course depends on what we replace him with.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #101: September 20, 2024, 11:21:42 AM »
that of course depends on what we replace him with.

"Likely" was indeed doing some work there.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #102: September 20, 2024, 11:29:31 AM »
Yes, but it'll improve the team ERA by even more than the FIP changes.  It's sorta a no-crap point that getting rid of a bad pitcher who throws lots of innings likely will improve the team's pitching stats overall.

Right, like I said it will help close the gap. I thought you were implying that the pitching wasn't actually performing as well as their FIP suggested because of the huge gap between the two stats that Corbin has. My bad if that was not your point.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #103: September 20, 2024, 11:36:11 AM »
Right, like I said it will help close the gap. I thought you were implying that the pitching wasn't actually performing as well as their FIP suggested because of the huge gap between the two stats that Corbin has. My bad if that was not your point.

That point would be nonsensical.  Corbin's performance doesn't affect Irvin's performance and so on. 

My point is that part of the composite numbers this year is Corbin.  Corbin most years underperforms his FIP (or more correctly, his FIP overestimates his actual results) by a large amount.   Those years aren't affected by this year's defense, because they're not this year.  It's a separate independent variable.

Corbin will be gone.  That will make the relationship between FIP and ERA on next year's team look different even if nobody else's performance changes.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #104: September 20, 2024, 11:48:06 AM »
Sounds like we're in agreement then.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #105: September 20, 2024, 11:49:58 AM »
Sounds like we're in agreement then.

No, we absolutely must disagree.  This is the internet.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #106: September 20, 2024, 12:01:30 PM »
On the plus side, they are 10th in MLB in FIP, suggesting they should be better next season. On the other hand, the big discrepancy between FIP and ERA can probably be largely explained by terrible defense, which goes beyond just unearned runs and is much less likely to change for the better next season.

They're 15th in FIP.  Corbin leaving will help this, but not a fan of this metric because it overweights HRs given up.   Nats pitchers are 25th in K's, which combined with being near the bottom in errors and defensive runs saved is a lethal mix.


Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #107: September 20, 2024, 12:18:34 PM »
A fair amount of that is Corbin, who has a long-term gap between FIP and ERA (of more than a run this year), throws a lot of innings, and won't be around next year. 
Started to say that this assumes his replacement is better., but, who the heck could stick in the majors and not be better. Only issue would be if the 5th starter is used to shuffle in a series of Rutledge / Ward types alternating with Espinos and Adons.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #108: September 20, 2024, 01:08:50 PM »
They're 15th in FIP.  Corbin leaving will help this, but not a fan of this metric because it overweights HRs given up.   Nats pitchers are 25th in K's, which combined with being near the bottom in errors and defensive runs saved is a lethal mix.

Fangraphs has them at 10th:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&month=0&sortcol=18&sortdir=default&team=0%2Cts&stats=pit&pagenum=1

Where do you see them at 15th?

Edit:

And by xFIP (which adjusts HR rate to league average) Fangraphs shows them at 13th:
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2024&season1=2024&ind=0&month=0&sortcol=19&sortdir=default&team=0%2Cts&stats=pit&pagenum=1

Edit 2: I do agree that the lack of strikeout stuff combined with bad defense will mean they will very likely continue to underperform their FIP, which upon rereading your comment seems to be what you're saying rather than focusing on the HR rate.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #109: September 20, 2024, 05:07:46 PM »
Fangraphs has them at 10th:

You're right, they're 10th.  I was looking at StatMuse but had to re-sort the data.

Offline Elvir Ovcina

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #110: September 20, 2024, 06:45:36 PM »

And by xFIP (which adjusts HR rate to league average) Fangraphs shows them at 13th:


FIP is dubious in many applications but occasionally useful.  xFIP is just absurd.  "Oh, we don't like the data if we ignore what happens aside from walks, homers, and strikeouts? Let's just ignore the homers!" 

Yeah, that's it, just pretend every single ball in play should be averaged out!

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #111: September 21, 2024, 02:07:31 PM »
xFIP is a bit useful if you are looking at a guy changing teams coming from a park park that is extreme in HRs. Maybe it's useful in looking at PCL or Eastern League guys. But there's probably better stuff, like eyeballs

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #112: September 22, 2024, 01:31:36 PM »
Tigers break their losing season streak.  Angels, Nats, Rockies, and Pirates head into next year at 5+.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #113: September 25, 2024, 09:18:22 PM »
Clinched the #5 lottery tankathon spot.  Magic number to clinch #4 is 1.

Offline varoadking

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #114: September 25, 2024, 11:27:02 PM »
Clinched the #5 lottery tankathon spot.  Magic number to clinch #4 is 1.

We got this...  :thumbs:

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #115: September 26, 2024, 09:52:55 AM »
While 69 wins are niiiiice, clock is running on #70 & #71. Been a brutal 10 days. I thought 72-74 was likely at the start of the month

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #116: September 26, 2024, 04:02:41 PM »
Clinched 5 seasons in a row with a sub .450 win pct, after doing the same 2006 through 2010.  Not sure how many other franchises have achieved this recently, maybe the Pirates.

Offline imref

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #117: September 26, 2024, 04:16:57 PM »
69-93 seems pretty likely right now.

Online JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #118: September 26, 2024, 06:11:06 PM »
the Nats were 68-81 with 2 weeks left in the season. To close out  1-12 is a pretty sour turn.

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #119: September 26, 2024, 07:43:54 PM »
the Nats were 68-81 with 2 weeks left in the season. To close out  1-12 is a pretty sour turn.

They've lost 9 of 10, but 68-81 was after taking 3 of 4 from a spectacularly awful Marlins team.   Starters are still doing there just under 5 IP thing, but they've scored just 18 runs in the last 10 games, the offense has completely faded away.  For the full season, team OPS is down 30 points from last year when they were ranked 21st for that stat vs. 25th this year.  Stolen bases aren't helping anymore either as their success rate has dropped to the low-mid 70s, the point at which the caught stealings effectively even out the benefit of the steals. 

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #120: September 28, 2024, 02:15:40 PM »
Only franchise to have two separate consecutive streaks of 5 years+ of .450 or worse win pct since at least 2000.


Offline varoadking

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #121: September 28, 2024, 06:55:46 PM »
Only franchise to have two separate consecutive streaks of 5 years+ of .450 or worse win pct since at least 2000.

#littlevictories!

Offline IanRubbish

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #122: September 29, 2024, 10:30:26 PM »
70-92 (unfortunately)

Don't think anyone had 71, so you are the winner!


Online Count Walewski

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #123: September 30, 2024, 07:02:17 AM »
Looks like I was too chicken to make a prediction this spring but I'd probably have guessed 80-82. Which is weird, the season didn't FEEL like a disappointing performance, what with the debut of so many new players and stretches of success against good teams.

Offline OfftheBat

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Re: 2024 W-L Predictions
« Reply #124: September 30, 2024, 12:12:44 PM »
Don't think anyone had 71, so you are the winner!


Yaay! I shoulda put a little money down in some sportsbook at the time of my prediction lol  :mg: