Boras Clients

[OfftheBat]

After those Snell & Bellinger signings, I am left wondering... why are teams not taking the Boras bait anymore?

[HalfSmokes]

Lots of teams have a lot of uncertainty about local tv revenue

[IanRubbish]

Lots of teams have a lot of uncertainty about local tv revenue

That, luxury tax, and also expanded playoffs.  Also, who wants to be like the Mets, Phillies, Padres, or Angels who have little to show for massive spending.  Even the Dodgers laid off after the Japanese signings and the Yankees are realizing that paying $30M a year per 37 year old is a losing strategy.   

[Senatorswin]

After those Snell & Bellinger signings, I am left wondering... why are teams not taking the Boras bait anymore?

I was shocked to see the status of the top 10 paid MLB pitchers recently. Only 4 are going to start the season. Of those 4 Corbin and Rodon stink and Nola had an ERA of 4.46. The only good one was number 10 Luis Castillo at $24 million.

I gotta believe the teams are seeing this and the day of the long term big money pitcher contracts will be few and far between.

[HalfSmokes]

I was shocked to see the status of the top 10 paid MLB pitchers recently. Only 4 are going to start the season. Of those 4 Corbin and Rodon stink and Nola had an ERA of 4.46. The only good one was number 10 Luis Castillo at $24 million.

I gotta believe the teams are seeing this and the day of the long term big money pitcher contracts will be few and far between.

More and more, I think baseball free agency resembles football. By the time most players make it, they aren't worth it

[Slateman]

More and more, I think baseball free agency resembles football. By the time most players make it, they aren't worth it

But in football, its because there is a mechanism that prevents players from leaving. In baseball, its because of team control and not having a salary cap.

[HalfSmokes]

But in football, its because there is a mechanism that prevents players from leaving. In baseball, its because of team control and not having a salary cap.

in it's early extensions and keeping players in the minors to maximize the value of team control years. There are always outliers, but I think more teams are realizing that most free agents aren't worth it

[imref]

After those Snell & Bellinger signings, I am left wondering... why are teams not taking the Boras bait anymore?

because all these players have big question marks that preclude teams from wanting to offer long term contracts (plus very few long-term contracts ever work out for the team offering it).

I do think Soto will be the exception, teams will be more than willing to spend $400-500M for a 26 year old with his record of performance, as they did with Ohtani.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

It feels worth noting that, barring a massive surprise for Montgomery, none of the seven biggest contracts in baseball today belong to Boras clients. There was a time when he dominated the list.

Janes on the winter FA market.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/19/blake-snell-giants-scott-boras/

[Slateman]

Janes on the winter FA market.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/03/19/blake-snell-giants-scott-boras/

Mongtomery is the one that makes me think this is collusion. Consistent innings eater with sub- 4 ERA. Doesnt need velo to excel. Pitched well in big games.

And we've heard nothing. In a market where Nola got 172 million, Eduardo Rodriguez got 80 million, and Seth freaking Lugo got 54 million, somehow we've heard zero offers on Montgomery?

I smell collusion

[HalfSmokes]

Mongtomery is the one that makes me think this is collusion. Consistent innings eater with sub- 4 ERA. Doesnt need velo to excel. Pitched well in big games.

And we've heard nothing. In a market where Nola got 172 million, Eduardo Rodriguez got 80 million, and Seth freaking Lugo got 54 million, somehow we've heard zero offers on Montgomery?

I smell collusion

Maybe. After advising our best young player to walk and Strasburg to resign, it couldn’t happen to a better jerk

[Natsinpwc]

Mongtomery is the one that makes me think this is collusion. Consistent innings eater with sub- 4 ERA. Doesnt need velo to excel. Pitched well in big games.

And we've heard nothing. In a market where Nola got 172 million, Eduardo Rodriguez got 80 million, and Seth freaking Lugo got 54 million, somehow we've heard zero offers on Montgomery?

I smell collusion

Or maybe Boras just wants deals that are too long and no one is biting any more.  I mean he wants an extension from the Phillies for Harper. LOL. 

[Slateman]

Or maybe Boras just wants deals that are too long and no one is biting any more.  I mean he wants an extension from the Phillies for Harper. LOL. 

Except the Yankees lowballed. So again, one lowball offer.

Its one thing to say that you're not going to overpay. Its another to offer a two time, 31 year old Cy Young winner less than Aaron Nola.

[Natsinpwc]

Except the Yankees lowballed. So again, one lowball offer.

Its one thing to say that you're not going to overpay. Its another to offer a two time, 31 year old Cy Young winner less than Aaron Nola.

Unlike Nola and Wheeler he is not a workhorse. Most seasons he has been in the 120 innings range.  180 last year and one other year.  If owners are going to pay they want a guy to pitch.  Like Nola or Wheeler.  Or like Max in his prime. It’s not just the money. Probably wants more years than teams will give.  The Montgomery being out there is more unusual to me.  But he is also 31.  I think Boras figured if teams were going to give position players long deals he could get one for pitchers also.  But that list someone posted here was revealing.  The long pitching deals usually do not work out. 

[Natsinpwc]

Here are the stats on Nola.  It’s basically between 180-210 innings every year. Even 70 innings in the Covid year. that said I think if he had left the Phillies they would have signed Snell. 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolaaa01.shtml

[nfotiu]

Even these Snell and Bellinger deals aren't particularly team friendly with the player options.   Boras is unwilling to sign any contract that isn't guaranteed to be a lose-lose for the team.   His whole schtick of convincing his players that the security in signing in advance of free agency has no value, and demanding contracts with player options that are destined to screw the team has got old, and makes baseball less fun for the fans.   

And really, if he was doing his job, he should have foresaw the impending collapse of RSNs, and secured some deals ahead of it.   We've been talking about that scenario on this board for a few years now.

[Elvir Ovcina]

Even these Snell and Bellinger deals aren't particularly team friendly with the player options.   Boras is unwilling to sign any contract that isn't guaranteed to be a lose-lose for the team.   His whole schtick of convincing his players that the security in signing in advance of free agency has no value, and demanding contracts with player options that are destined to screw the team has got old, and makes baseball less fun for the fans.   

And really, if he was doing his job, he should have foresaw the impending collapse of RSNs, and secured some deals ahead of it.   We've been talking about that scenario on this board for a few years now.

It's a really bad deal for Snell, though.  He (Boras) needed to maximize the earnings bounce for a guy coming off a Cy Young year.  He didn't do that.  All he did was buy him one year of downside protection: if Snell has a bad year this year, he gets one more chance to get back to top form...and then probably still takes a lot less money due to age.  If that Yankees offer was as reported, he's going to have trouble hitting that total earnings over the next 5 years even if he pitches reasonably well.

At Snell's age, assuming he doesn't win another Cy Young this year, his next contract is probably $10m+ lower AAV than what he's getting now.  That's not exactly ideal for a guy in his 30s coming off a Cy Young. 

[varoadking]

It's a really bad deal for Snell, though.  He (Boras) needed to maximize the earnings bounce for a guy coming off a Cy Young year.  He didn't do that.  All he did was buy him one year of downside protection: if Snell has a bad year this year, he gets one more chance to get back to top form...and then probably still takes a lot less money due to age.  If that Yankees offer was as reported, he's going to have trouble hitting that total earnings over the next 5 years even if he pitches reasonably well.

At Snell's age, assuming he doesn't win another Cy Young this year, his next contract is probably $10m+ lower AAV than what he's getting now.  That's not exactly ideal for a guy in his 30s coming off a Cy Young.

It's still stoopid money.  We tend to get jaded and speak in $MM's as though it were walking around money.  Hopefully this is the start of a major market correction in professional sports contracts.

[Elvir Ovcina]

It's still stoopid money.  We tend to get jaded and speak in $MM's as though it were walking around money.  Hopefully this is the start of a major market correction in professional sports contracts.

Absolutely crazy money in real world terms.  I think what's really going on here is that the owners don't have the crutch of RSNs and most of the current generation of owners bought in with the expectation that financial losses were essentially voluntary.  They're all finding that they don't like the idea of even temporary losses, even if that would allow their teams to compete.

[OfftheBat]

I was shocked to see the status of the top 10 paid MLB pitchers recently. Only 4 are going to start the season. Of those 4 Corbin and Rodon stink and Nola had an ERA of 4.46. The only good one was number 10 Luis Castillo at $24 million.

I gotta believe the teams are seeing this and the day of the long term big money pitcher contracts will be few and far between.

Yeah I remember that list, it's crazy. The next generation's MLB superstar (whoever he is) will probably sign a $1 billion contract one day.

[OfftheBat]

because all these players have big question marks that preclude teams from wanting to offer long term contracts (plus very few long-term contracts ever work out for the team offering it).

I do think Soto will be the exception, teams will be more than willing to spend $400-500M for a 26 year old with his record of performance, as they did with Ohtani.

What were the question marks for Snell? Does he have a history of bad injuries.

[imref]

What were the question marks for Snell? Does he have a history of bad injuries.

he's 31 and only twice has pitched more than 130 innings (180 in both 2023 and 2018).

[OfftheBat]

he's 31 and only twice has pitched more than 130 innings (180 in both 2023 and 2018).

I see, that makes sense now.

[HalfSmokes]

It's still stoopid money.  We tend to get jaded and speak in $MM's as though it were walking around money.  Hopefully this is the start of a major market correction in professional sports contracts.

I think it's an MLB specific correction. Under the current CBA, the NBA is set to see a $100 million a year player in the early 2030s. If football, you have multiple QBs at over $45 million a year and an increasing salary cap

[imref]

I think it's an MLB specific correction. Under the current CBA, the NBA is set to see a $100 million a year player in the early 2030s. If football, you have multiple QBs at over $45 million a year and an increasing salary cap

i imagine declining TV ratings are an increasing problem for the MLB.