Author Topic: Juan Soto, Yankee  (Read 11883 times)

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Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #400: October 24, 2024, 02:13:31 PM »
When he pitched, wasn't he held out of the DH spot not only on the day he pitched but also the day before? With a hitter as good as Ohtani, that's a lot of offense missing. Probably more than a third. that 50/50 becomes a 35/35 season. I'm sure he'll try to pitch because he enjoys it and he'll always want to try, but I can see the Dodgers maybe wanting to spot start him so to lose the bat less frequently.

Not only that, but the third Tommy John could hurt him as a hitter as well

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #401: October 24, 2024, 03:20:12 PM »
Gonna be honest, I expect more than the NY teams to be players at that AAV
I think the Phillies will be in if they can figure a way. And SF. Hitters don’t want to play there but Boras will use them to drive up the price. Cubs? He’s in a darn good position.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #402: October 24, 2024, 03:59:46 PM »
I think the Phillies will be in if they can figure a way. And SF. Hitters don’t want to play there but Boras will use them to drive up the price. Cubs? He’s in a darn good position.
I'm with Blue911. I'd love to see him play half his games in Fenway. It's very good ballpark for lefties that go to the opposite way. The distance to right isn't going to make a difference to him.

Offline blue911

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #403: October 24, 2024, 04:23:43 PM »
I'm with Blue911. I'd love to see him play half his games in Fenway. It's very good ballpark for lefties that go to the opposite way. The distance to right isn't going to make a difference to him.

All the more so if Soto has a big World Series.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #404: October 24, 2024, 04:57:54 PM »
All the more so if Soto has a big World Series.
Let's hope John Henry is in a dishing out the pain mood. But, TBH, Henry's original source of money, his hedge fund, folded, so it's all on what FSG can generate.

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #405: October 24, 2024, 07:05:31 PM »
I think the Phillies will be in if they can figure a way. And SF. Hitters don’t want to play there but Boras will use them to drive up the price. Cubs? He’s in a darn good position.
At 40 million AAV, the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays are all in the market

Online nfotiu

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #406: October 24, 2024, 08:20:57 PM »
At 40 million AAV, the Dodgers, Phillies, Mets, Yankees, Giants, Cubs, and Blue Jays are all in the market
I think the term scares away more teams  than the AAV.  Best guess is he is good until about 32, so a 15 year contract is going to have like 8+ dead years on it. 

I don't know who a comparable is for aging, but I looked at some of the great Dominican hitters.   Vlad and Pujols didn't do much past 32.   The PED guys played well for a lot longer (Manny,Ortiz, and Sosa).   In retrospect, it sure seems that PED definitely helped a lot of hitters hit well into their late 30s.

For other comparables, Trout may not have a good season over 30 yo.   Bryce seems to have started his descent around 30-31, and it remains to be seen if that continues, or he has a bit of a bounce back, or at least stays about the same.

He's more valuable to the Yankees right now than anyone else.   They should just come up with a deal before he hits free agency.   I know Boras won't do that though.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #407: October 24, 2024, 09:28:37 PM »
At 31 years old Aaron Judge signed for $40 million a year through age 39. Soto just turned 26. That's 5 more peak years. I predict AAV of 45 a year for 13 years. That would be $585,000,000.

Offline Senatorswin

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #408: October 24, 2024, 09:30:54 PM »
Yea, but he's drunk and I'm sober.

Wait what .... we're supposed to make our prediction sober? I'll have to redo my prediction early tomorrow.

Offline nobleisthyname

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #409: October 24, 2024, 10:56:42 PM »
I think the term scares away more teams  than the AAV.  Best guess is he is good until about 32, so a 15 year contract is going to have like 8+ dead years on it. 

I don't know who a comparable is for aging, but I looked at some of the great Dominican hitters.   Vlad and Pujols didn't do much past 32.   The PED guys played well for a lot longer (Manny,Ortiz, and Sosa).   In retrospect, it sure seems that PED definitely helped a lot of hitters hit well into their late 30s.

For other comparables, Trout may not have a good season over 30 yo.   Bryce seems to have started his descent around 30-31, and it remains to be seen if that continues, or he has a bit of a bounce back, or at least stays about the same.

He's more valuable to the Yankees right now than anyone else.   They should just come up with a deal before he hits free agency.   I know Boras won't do that though.

I disagree about Harper showing signs of decline. .898 OPS last season vs .911 career. And with offense down across the league this season he actually had a higher wRC+ (145) than his career average (142).

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #410: October 25, 2024, 12:02:49 AM »
At 31 years old Aaron Judge signed for $40 million a year through age 39. Soto just turned 26. That's 5 more peak years. I predict AAV of 45 a year for 13 years. That would be $585,000,000.
I think Boras pushes to exceed Ohtani's 46 million AAV

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #411: October 25, 2024, 08:30:31 AM »
I think Boras pushes to exceed Ohtani's 46 million AAV

I think Cohen blows Hal out of the water with something north of that

Online nfotiu

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #412: October 25, 2024, 08:42:25 AM »
I wonder if the Yankees leverage their 5 day window of exclusivity after the world series.  I could see them offering something like 55x11, seeing if they counter and tell Boras they are not participating in a bidding war if he goes to free agency.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #413: October 25, 2024, 08:57:28 AM »
I wonder if the Yankees leverage their 5 day window of exclusivity after the world series.  I could see them offering something like 55x11, seeing if they counter and tell Boras they are not participating in a bidding war if he goes to free agency.

If the Yankees win, and Soto has a big WS, I can't see them letting him walk.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #414: October 25, 2024, 09:21:07 AM »
I wonder if the Yankees leverage their 5 day window of exclusivity after the world series.  I could see them offering something like 55x11, seeing if they counter and tell Boras they are not participating in a bidding war if he goes to free agency.


Boras would laugh and call the bluff. The 55x11 would be the starting point for the bidding war

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #415: October 25, 2024, 09:21:36 AM »
If the Yankees win, and Soto has a big WS, I can't see them letting him walk.

Hal is not George and there is another owner in the same city with much deeper pockets

Offline Slateman

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #416: October 25, 2024, 11:55:33 AM »
Hal is not George and there is another owner in the same city with much deeper pockets
There is no player the Yankees can't outbid. They have double the revenue of the Mets.

This is simply going to come down to where does Soto really want to spend the rest of his career.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #417: October 25, 2024, 12:01:16 PM »
There is no player the Yankees can't outbid. They have double the revenue of the Mets.

This is simply going to come down to where does Soto really want to spend the rest of his career.

and on that, i'm betting in The Bronx.

Offline HalfSmokes

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #418: October 25, 2024, 12:06:44 PM »
There is no player the Yankees can't outbid. They have double the revenue of the Mets.

This is simply going to come down to where does Soto really want to spend the rest of his career.

double the revenue, but they are the owner's primary business and they support the Steinbrenner family. The mets are a hobby for Cohen

Online nfotiu

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #419: October 25, 2024, 12:17:46 PM »
double the revenue, but they are the owner's primary business and they support the Steinbrenner family. The mets are a hobby for Cohen
Yeah, if you believe Forbes valuations (I don't really, but they are the best guess we have), then the Mets are ok running under a 300 million/year loss, while the Yankees like to break even.

Boras just cares about money, so if it is up to him, he goes to the Mets.   If Soto takes ownership of the situation, he stays with the Yankees.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #420: October 25, 2024, 12:26:55 PM »
Soto already had one title. And maybe another this year. Why would he not take the money from another team. I mean the Mets made the LCS this year and the owner has deep pockets.
I’m sure he has an ego and would feel he can help them be better.

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #421: October 25, 2024, 12:36:42 PM »
Soto already had one title. And maybe another this year. Why would he not take the money from another team. I mean the Mets made the LCS this year and the owner has deep pockets.
I’m sure he has an ego and would feel he can help them be better.
the allure of going down as a Yankees legend could influence his decision.

Online Natsinpwc

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #422: October 25, 2024, 01:08:59 PM »
the allure of going down as a Yankees legend could influence his decision.
On the other hand he will always be second fiddle to Judge. 

Offline imref

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #423: October 25, 2024, 01:21:25 PM »
On the other hand he will always be second fiddle to Judge. 
I don't know about that. Judge will be 33 early next season. Plenty of time for Soto to overtake him as Judge heads down the wrong side of 30.

Offline JCA-CrystalCity

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Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #424: October 25, 2024, 02:06:23 PM »
Some of this depends on Soto's makeup. A-Rod could live with never being > Jeter in NY. Probably helped that most of the rest of the world acknowledged he was a better player. If Soto has a chip on his shoulders, then he may want to go elsewhere where he's #1.