Author Topic: Juan Soto, Yankee (Read 9514 times)

Slateman · « **Reply #350:** September 30, 2024, 05:59:19 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 30, 2024, 05:35:50 PM

He means you replace Eaton and Corbin with Harper and Lynn and you still win

Bingo.

Lance Lynn was every bit as good as Corbin in 2019. Harper is a much better RFer than Eaton was. Money was virtually the same.

Senatorswin · « **Reply #351:** September 30, 2024, 06:09:55 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 30, 2024, 05:35:50 PM

He means you replace Eaton and Corbin with Harper and Lynn and you still win

Maybe, maybe not. Both Eaton and Corbin came through when they were needed in those situations. Also, the point is if you sign Harper for big bucks would they of signed somebody else like Lynn. Even though Harper and Lynn are better players we don't know what the dynamic of the team would of been and even if they got that far if they would of come through in big situations in those playoffs.

The bigger question is if they sign Soto for 10 to 13 years at 50 million a year chances are nobody else of consequence is being signed for years. When Wood, Crews and others come up for free agency, while they might not be signed anyway, they probably definitely wouldn't be if they perform like we hope they will if they're paying Soto.

Slateman · « **Reply #352:** September 30, 2024, 06:22:55 PM »

Quote from: Senatorswin on September 30, 2024, 06:09:55 PM

Maybe, maybe not. Both Eaton and Corbin came through when they were needed in those situations. Also, the point is if you sign Harper for big bucks would they of signed somebody else like Lynn. Even though Harper and Lynn are better players we don't know what the dynamic of the team would of been and even if they got that far if they would of come through in big situations in those playoffs.

The bigger question is if they sign Soto for 10 to 13 years at 50 million a year chances are nobody else of consequence is being signed for years. When Wood, Crews and others come up for free agency, while they might not be signed anyway, they probably definitely wouldn't be if they perform like we hope they will if they're paying Soto.

Corbin had a 5+ ERA in the playoffs. He literally "came through" for the Nats for like 3 innings. Little to none of Eaton's hits came in meaningful situations. He was a middling .700s OPS, where as Bryce Harper has been a monster in the postseason. As for team dynamic, Lynn had won a WS at that point. The team dynamic and Harper didn't appear until after the 2019 WS. I don't think it was Harper/team dynamic that made Dusty Baker be a bad manager in the playoffs or Max Scherzer collapse.

I would rather have Soto for the next 10-13 years then worry about keeping Crews and Wood beyond 2031. There is more than enough money to pay Soto and still sign other free agents or keep your own players if you want.

Senatorswin · « **Reply #353:** September 30, 2024, 06:45:28 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on September 30, 2024, 06:22:55 PM

Corbin had a 5+ ERA in the playoffs. He literally "came through" for the Nats for like 3 innings. Little to none of Eaton's hits came in meaningful situations. He was a middling .700s OPS, where as Bryce Harper has been a monster in the postseason. As for team dynamic, Lynn had won a WS at that point. The team dynamic and Harper didn't appear until after the 2019 WS. I don't think it was Harper/team dynamic that made Dusty Baker be a bad manager in the playoffs or Max Scherzer collapse.

I would rather have Soto for the next 10-13 years then worry about keeping Crews and Wood beyond 2031. There is more than enough money to pay Soto and still sign other free agents or keep your own players if you want.

The team came together after the 19-31 start to have the best record the remaining of the season. Corbin was a big part of that. Without Corbin holding the Astros those three innings the Nats don't win the World Series. You don't even know if they would of signed Lynn if they signed Harper. We don't know what the dynamic of the team would of been if they had signed Harper. Maybe they win the World Series, maybe they don't. What we do know is they won the World Series with players they probably wouldn't of signed if they had signed Harper.

It's naive to think they would sign Soto for a 500 to 600 million dollar contract and then sign other players of consequence. I'd love to see Soto at first next year but eventually we'd be in another situation like we've been with Corbin or the Yankees have been with Stanton or the Tigers were with Cabrera.

nobleisthyname · « **Reply #354:** September 30, 2024, 06:51:09 PM »

The Nationals could easily afford to sign other big contracts in addition to Soto if they wished. They're a big market club and they have no one else of consequence signed to long-term deals.

Natsinpwc · « **Reply #355:** September 30, 2024, 06:59:59 PM »

If Soto gets $45 million AAV does anyone really think they would spend another $20-$40 million on top of that. They are still crying about not having their own TV deal. That would show they have lots of money anyway, I'm expecting more like $25-30 million total on free agents. As others have said they cash deferral money they owe is also a major factor. Time to pay the piper.

Slateman · « **Reply #356:** September 30, 2024, 07:08:02 PM »

Quote from: Senatorswin on September 30, 2024, 06:45:28 PM

The team came together after the 19-31 start to have the best record the remaining of the season. Corbin was a big part of that. Without Corbin holding the Astros those three innings the Nats don't win the World Series. You don't even know if they would of signed Lynn if they signed Harper. We don't know what the dynamic of the team would of been if they had signed Harper. Maybe they win the World Series, maybe they don't. What we do know is they won the World Series with players they probably wouldn't of signed if they had signed Harper.

It's naive to think they would sign Soto for a 500 to 600 million dollar contract and then sign other players of consequence. I'd love to see Soto at first next year but eventually we'd be in another situation like we've been with Corbin or the Yankees have been with Stanton or the Tigers were with Cabrera.

Lance Lynn was every bit as good as Corbin in 2019. Arguably better. And we don't know that Lynn can't hold the Astros in relief either.

Again, I would rather have Juan Soto for 10-13 years than "other players of consequence." None of those players are going to be as good as Juan Soto. Soto is going to be a top 10 hitter in baseball for the next 5-8 years. Can you say that about Wood or Crews at age 30, when they will be free agents? Juan has finished top 10 in wRC+ in each of the last five seasons. In three of those seasons, he's been top 5. This dude is one of the best hitters in baseball and in the midst of an upper echelon, unanimous HoF career. Wood and Crews aren't going to be that.

And if you sign Wood/Crews to the a long term deal, they're going to be just like Stanton or Cabrerra, because they're going to be 30. And I think every freaking team in baseball takes Cabrerra from age 26-39. That's two MVP awards and three additional top 5 finishes. Oh and Juan Soto is legimately a better hitter than Cabrera at the same age. Cabrerra posted a a 137 wRC+ from 2003 through his 2009 season. Juan is sitting at 157. .925 OPS vs .953.

So yea, if you're asking me if I'd rather have Juan Soto age 26-39 vs keeping Crews and Wood at age 30-37+, that's a no brainer. I'm taking the dude who is currently on pace to be a top 20 hitter in the history of baseball.

Slateman · « **Reply #357:** September 30, 2024, 07:10:40 PM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 30, 2024, 06:59:59 PM

If Soto gets $45 million AAV does anyone really think they would spend another $20-$40 million on top of that. They are still crying about not having their own TV deal. That would show they have lots of money anyway, I'm expecting more like $25-30 million total on free agents. As others have said they cash deferral money they owe is also a major factor. Time to pay the piper.

This is the question that needs to be answered this offseason. Logically, if you sign player like Soto, you are saying you're going to spend what it takes to be competitive. Whether that's actual money, prospect capital, or some combination. But with this current ownership group, we don't know. We've never seen them try and compete.

But honestly, given the status of Bally Sports, the Nats are probably in better financial shape than a third of baseball.

Senatorswin · « **Reply #358:** September 30, 2024, 11:35:20 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on September 30, 2024, 07:08:02 PM

Lance Lynn was every bit as good as Corbin in 2019. Arguably better. And we don't know that Lynn can't hold the Astros in relief either.

Again, I would rather have Juan Soto for 10-13 years than "other players of consequence." None of those players are going to be as good as Juan Soto. Soto is going to be a top 10 hitter in baseball for the next 5-8 years. Can you say that about Wood or Crews at age 30, when they will be free agents? Juan has finished top 10 in wRC+ in each of the last five seasons. In three of those seasons, he's been top 5. This dude is one of the best hitters in baseball and in the midst of an upper echelon, unanimous HoF career. Wood and Crews aren't going to be that.

And if you sign Wood/Crews to the a long term deal, they're going to be just like Stanton or Cabrerra, because they're going to be 30. And I think every freaking team in baseball takes Cabrerra from age 26-39. That's two MVP awards and three additional top 5 finishes. Oh and Juan Soto is legimately a better hitter than Cabrera at the same age. Cabrerra posted a a 137 wRC+ from 2003 through his 2009 season. Juan is sitting at 157. .925 OPS vs .953.

So yea, if you're asking me if I'd rather have Juan Soto age 26-39 vs keeping Crews and Wood at age 30-37+, that's a no brainer. I'm taking the dude who is currently on pace to be a top 20 hitter in the history of baseball.

Considering the money he was making Miguel Cabrera was a huge burden to the Tigers the last SEVEN YEARS of his career. He just wasn't good.

We don't know if the Nats would of won anything or not if the Nats had signed Harper. What we do know is with Corbin and Eaton helping them recover from a 19-31 start, and with the team coming together both in the regular season and post season, they DID WIN the World Series. So it's pointless to say well if they had Harper and Lynn they could of done the same thing, especially since we don't know if they would of signed Lynn if they signed Harper, probably not. We also know the Nats never won a World Series when they had Harper and a lot of other serious talent.

You don't have to convince me Soto is a great hitter. I know that. But if they pay Soto 50 million a year you can bet they're not signing anybody else of consequence. Crews and Wood could be serious stars. Considering the Nats history the Nats might not sign them long term anyway but they're definitely not if Soto is making 50 million. So we would be looking at probably at least 5 years of diminished Soto production with probably little else on the team. Would it be better to sign a few good players with shorter contracts with that money to complement the young talent they have. Probably.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #359:** October 01, 2024, 08:31:03 AM »

Quote from: Natsinpwc on September 30, 2024, 06:59:59 PM

If Soto gets $45 million AAV does anyone really think they would spend another $20-$40 million on top of that. They are still crying about not having their own TV deal. That would show they have lots of money anyway, I'm expecting more like $25-30 million total on free agents. As others have said they cash deferral money they owe is also a major factor. Time to pay the piper.

honestly, I think this franchise can carry a $180 million payroll without blinking provided they build their attendance back to the 28-30,000 a night range. By the time Wood and Crews are arbitration-eligible, Corbin will be off the books completely, and I think Scherzer will only have one more year. As for Stras, I don't know the payment stream that's been agreed to, but I guess there will be some money still owed. It really shouldn't be a problem bringing in someone on a 3 year deal to fill in around Soto and then have that contract roll off before Crews and Wood (and maybe some of the home-grown pitchers like Herz or Irvin) are well into arbitration.

varoadking · « **Reply #360:** October 01, 2024, 09:37:35 PM »

I think we are being rather optimistic about Wood and Crews' ceilings.

Slateman · « **Reply #361:** October 02, 2024, 07:28:51 PM »

https://sportsnaut.com/new-york-yankees-news-juan-soto-contract-price-limit/

Buster Olney says he's going to the Mets

Senatorswin · « **Reply #362:** October 02, 2024, 08:17:10 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on October 02, 2024, 07:28:51 PM

https://sportsnaut.com/new-york-yankees-news-juan-soto-contract-price-limit/

Buster Olney says he's going to the Mets

So if they spend $560 million on Soto will they spend to keep Alonzo? Might open the door for the Nats to get Alonzo.

Slateman · « **Reply #363:** October 02, 2024, 08:21:28 PM »

Quote from: Senatorswin on October 02, 2024, 08:17:10 PM

So if they spend $560 million on Soto will they spend to keep Alonzo? Might open the door for the Nats to get Alonzo.

No, Alonso is definitely not coming back to the Mets if they sign Soto.

I dont particularly want to spend 150+ millon on Alonso either.

Senatorswin · « **Reply #364:** October 02, 2024, 08:33:04 PM »

Quote from: Slateman on October 02, 2024, 08:21:28 PM

No, Alonso is definitely not coming back to the Mets if they sign Soto.

I dont particularly want to spend 150+ millon on Alonso either.

I guess it depends on the deal. Probably a lot of other teams will go after Alonzo also. Still, that power would be nice.

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #365:** October 03, 2024, 08:34:01 AM »

Walker, Winker, and Burnes > Soto.

Slateman · « **Reply #366:** October 03, 2024, 10:05:50 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on October 03, 2024, 08:34:01 AM

Walker, Winker, and Burnes > Soto.

No. Not even close

JCA-CrystalCity · « **Reply #367:** October 03, 2024, 10:25:45 AM »

Quote from: Slateman on October 03, 2024, 10:05:50 AM

No. Not even close

there are multiple gaps in this roster. I'm not sure going all in on a DH moves the needle as much as getting an ace, finding a righty-hitting solid defensive 1st baseman, and a pretty good / non-elite lefty DH to team with Yepez/Chappy.

Slateman · « **Reply #368:** October 03, 2024, 11:25:27 AM »

Quote from: JCA-CrystalCity on October 03, 2024, 10:25:45 AM

there are multiple gaps in this roster. I'm not sure going all in on a DH moves the needle as much as getting an ace, finding a righty-hitting solid defensive 1st baseman, and a pretty good / non-elite lefty DH to team with Yepez/Chappy.

Soto and a starting pitcher. You fill in the rest at the deadline.

Winker is a soft hitting platoon bat. Walker is going to be 34. You MIGHT get a full season of production out of them.

There isnt much of a difference between Walker's away splits and Juan Yepez. Walkers glove is not worth 45-60 million.