Author Topic: Juan Soto, Yankee  (Read 5312 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

  • Posts: 1127
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #175: June 10, 2024, 01:31:32 PM »
At this point it’s all spilled milk. They were not going to compete anyway the way the team was constructed.  My worry is the future. Will they pay adequately to keep the good players?  Are they willing to spend to attract free agents to fill gaps? Are they improving drafting and development?  Seem all unknowns and I’m skeptical.

But this where I'm at as a fan. If you weren't willing to pay Harper and Soto, who are you going to be willing to pay? Those are two Hall of Famers we had to watch leave. I don't want that trend to continue with this next crop of prospects.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #176: June 10, 2024, 01:51:43 PM »
How much more would he have made the first couple years of the deal versus what he has gotten through arbitration?  He bet on himself.  He’s also younger than all the other guys you are using as an example when he will sign his new contract.  It wasn’t as bad as the Harper offer though. 
Its fair he bet on himself, but it doesn't take away that it was a fair offer to a guy who is basically a DH. Cool, he'll be 26. Yordan Alvarez was the same player and signed a 115 million dollar deal. Contract was a fair offer. Boras didn't offer a counter. Didn't want to negotiate. All Soto said was he didn't want the team to make the final offer public, which is an absolutely arsine thing to ask. And he will never know or be able to use the difference in money between that contract and whatever he gets.

Ohtani's contract with deferals is being evaluated as 42 million AAV. Anyone else getting around that or higher was taking significantly fewer years. The Soto was fair enough to garner a good faith negotiation, and we never got that.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #177: June 10, 2024, 01:54:25 PM »
He’s 1.4 bWAR so far this year. Gore is 0.9 which seems low.  Maybe fangraphs is higher?

Fangraphs has them reversed, actually. Makes sense, given Abrams defensive struggles

Offline varoadking

  • Posts: 29937
  • King of Goodness
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #178: June 10, 2024, 01:57:51 PM »
The Tanner Roark and Howie Kendrick trades were pretty damn good too.

The deal for Howie got us the piece we needed to win the WS...even despite dave.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #179: June 10, 2024, 02:32:17 PM »
They could've afforded to keep at least one of Harper or Turner. I mean, the Harper offer was pretty embarrassing.

Probably but you said the Phillies were magically able to sign Harper, Turner and Schwarber. It wasn't magic it was the fact the Phillies get more revenue to spend on players. It will be interesting when Harper and Turner are into their late thirties and still owed big bucks and Schwarber and Realmuto are gone or too old to be useful.

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26701
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #180: June 10, 2024, 04:15:14 PM »
Probably but you said the Phillies were magically able to sign Harper, Turner and Schwarber. It wasn't magic it was the fact the Phillies get more revenue to spend on players. It will be interesting when Harper and Turner are into their late thirties and still owed big bucks and Schwarber and Realmuto are gone or too old to be useful.
It’s not just revenue. It’s an owner willing to spend including luxury tax penalties.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #181: June 10, 2024, 05:28:44 PM »
It’s not just revenue. It’s an owner willing to spend including luxury tax penalties.

It's a lot easier to spend the money when you have the money coming in. Old man Lerner did spend when the time was right. We'll see if the younger Lerner will do the same. The time to do that is coming up next off-season though I doubt the Nats will ever go over the luxury tax.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

  • Posts: 1127
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #182: June 10, 2024, 05:29:31 PM »
Probably but you said the Phillies were magically able to sign Harper, Turner and Schwarber. It wasn't magic it was the fact the Phillies get more revenue to spend on players. It will be interesting when Harper and Turner are into their late thirties and still owed big bucks and Schwarber and Realmuto are gone or too old to be useful.

Very true. The MASN deal is an anchor around ownerships neck but at the same time they aren’t broke. They could’ve kept Harper easily and just chose not to. With Soto, I understand it would’ve been difficult to accomplish but offer something better than 19th in AAV. The Lerners knew he wouldn’t accept that deal. They absolutely knew it was asking him to forego another deal somewhere down the line with the long years attached to it. They did what they always do, offered a contract the player is not going to accept and then made it public so the fans wouldn’t go after them. The Lerners famous “see, we tried” act. The fans deserve better than what the Lerners are providing. We shouldn’t have to watch all of our homegrown stars play out their prime years with other organizations. It’s not like the team is in some remote location. It’s Washington DC for crying out loud.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #183: June 10, 2024, 09:49:59 PM »
It's a lot easier to spend the money when you have the money coming in. Old man Lerner did spend when the time was right. We'll see if the younger Lerner will do the same. The time to do that is coming up next off-season though I doubt the Nats will ever go over the luxury tax.
The Nats make more than enough to have a competitive payroll. Ownership simply doesnt want to spend.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #184: June 10, 2024, 09:50:29 PM »
Very true. The MASN deal is an anchor around ownerships neck but at the same time they aren’t broke. They could’ve kept Harper easily and just chose not to. With Soto, I understand it would’ve been difficult to accomplish but offer something better than 19th in AAV. The Lerners knew he wouldn’t accept that deal. They absolutely knew it was asking him to forego another deal somewhere down the line with the long years attached to it. They did what they always do, offered a contract the player is not going to accept and then made it public so the fans wouldn’t go after them. The Lerners famous “see, we tried” act. The fans deserve better than what the Lerners are providing. We shouldn’t have to watch all of our homegrown stars play out their prime years with other organizations. It’s not like the team is in some remote location. It’s Washington DC for crying out loud.
There was no deal Boras/Soto were taking.  Soto's next deal will also forgo any future deals. He isnt signing a short term deal.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #185: June 10, 2024, 11:29:16 PM »
Very true. The MASN deal is an anchor around ownerships neck but at the same time they aren’t broke. They could’ve kept Harper easily and just chose not to. With Soto, I understand it would’ve been difficult to accomplish but offer something better than 19th in AAV. The Lerners knew he wouldn’t accept that deal. They absolutely knew it was asking him to forego another deal somewhere down the line with the long years attached to it. They did what they always do, offered a contract the player is not going to accept and then made it public so the fans wouldn’t go after them. The Lerners famous “see, we tried” act. The fans deserve better than what the Lerners are providing. We shouldn’t have to watch all of our homegrown stars play out their prime years with other organizations. It’s not like the team is in some remote location. It’s Washington DC for crying out loud.

At the beginning of free agency the Nats and Harper couldn't agree on a contract so the Nats spent money on other players. When Harper still didn't have a contract Boras and Harper met with old man Lerner. Harper wanted to sign with the Nats and since the Nats had spent the money elsewhere they didn't sign Harper. You're right, they could of. Of course the Nats went on to win the World Series the next year so we'll never know if they would of if they had signed Harper. Supposedly Trea Turner was upset when he was traded from the Nats so maybe they could of come up with a deal with him but it would of been tough to match what the Phillies gave him. That contract goes until he is 40. I have a feeling the last 4 years or so are going to be pretty ugly. Still, the problem with baseball is whenever a star becomes a free agent there are the same teams that can get them. Every time it's a team with a huge local TV deal. The way the NFL is set up everybody has an equal chance.

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26701
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #186: June 10, 2024, 11:41:49 PM »
At the beginning of free agency the Nats and Harper couldn't agree on a contract so the Nats spent money on other players. When Harper still didn't have a contract Boras and Harper met with old man Lerner. Harper wanted to sign with the Nats and since the Nats had spent the money elsewhere they didn't sign Harper. You're right, they could of. Of course the Nats went on to win the World Series the next year so we'll never know if they would of if they had signed Harper. Supposedly Trea Turner was upset when he was traded from the Nats so maybe they could of come up with a deal with him but it would of been tough to match what the Phillies gave him. That contract goes until he is 40. I have a feeling the last 4 years or so are going to be pretty ugly. Still, the problem with baseball is whenever a star becomes a free agent there are the same teams that can get them. Every time it's a team with a huge local TV deal. The way the NFL is set up everybody has an equal chance.
The Nats are about middle of the road revenue wise. The problem with MLB is that there are too many owners that just don’t care to compete. They are making money paying out low payroll.  The Nats are about to join that group I fear. 

Online JCA-CrystalCity

  • Global Moderator
  • ****
  • Posts: 42325
  • Platoon - not just a movie, a baseball obsession
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #187: June 11, 2024, 09:19:41 AM »
Supposedly Trea Turner was upset when he was traded from the Nats so maybe they could of come up with a deal with him but it would of been tough to match what the Phillies gave him.
The Nats offer was a lowball take it or leave for Turner 2 years before his free agency. Had there been sincere negotiations at the time, he would have taken a shorter contract than what he would have gotten in free agency, both for the risk reduction and sentiment. It would not have taken 13 years beyond free agency (15 years at the time talks were broken off). The last 4 years of the Philly deal might be ugly, but the Nats I don't believe would have had to go beyond age 36 (11 years, 9 of FA). IT was dealing with Zim's agents, not Boras.

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #188: June 11, 2024, 09:46:09 AM »
Nats and Turner's agents were looking at ~150 million for an extension. Then the Mets traded and extended Lindor for 300 million. At that point, Turner's agents wanted 300 million.

Frankly, we dodged a bullet with Turner. He is not going to age well.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #189: June 11, 2024, 09:53:27 AM »
The Nats are about middle of the road revenue wise. The problem with MLB is that there are too many owners that just don’t care to compete. They are making money paying out low payroll.  The Nats are about to join that group I fear.

Yep the Nats are 14th in revenue. If you look at the 16 teams below the Nats in revenue not one of them has signed a big free agent that I can remember except the Padres and they are 15th in revenue. I think they are a special case anyway since the late owner spent like crazy. I haven't heard but I wonder if he knew his time was short. Since he passed I think they're spending days are over.

The 13 ahead of the Nats are the ones always bidding for the big free agents. Of those I know the Red Sox (4 in revenue) fans are getting pissed they've seemed to dropped out of trying to sign the stars. If I were a Cubs (3) or Mariners (10) I'd want them to do better. The Braves and Astros have been run well but it's getting to be time for them to start going after the big ones.

The link says 2010 but the graph says 2024.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/193645/revenue-of-major-league-baseball-teams-in-2010/

Online Natsinpwc

  • Posts: 26701
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #190: June 11, 2024, 10:14:05 AM »
Kansas City had some signings this off-season although not a big name.  And they are doing well. We just need the Lerners to spend some of our prospects work out.

Online imref

  • Posts: 44529
  • Re-contending in 202...5?
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #191: June 11, 2024, 10:29:16 AM »
Nats and Turner's agents were looking at ~150 million for an extension. Then the Mets traded and extended Lindor for 300 million. At that point, Turner's agents wanted 300 million.

Frankly, we dodged a bullet with Turner. He is not going to age well.
Turner is living up to his contract so far. But we've dodged bullets with everyone else except Harper, and we won a WS the year after Harper left.

It's incredible that the Nats succeeded with all 3 of their big FA signings (yes, Corbin was a success given his 2019 performance), and everyone we let get away (except Harper and the jury is still out on Turner) failed to live up to their contracts (JZ, Desmond, and Rendon).

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #192: June 11, 2024, 10:45:32 AM »
Kansas City had some signings this off-season although not a big name.  And they are doing well. We just need the Lerners to spend some of our prospects work out.

Yep I don't think the Nats are going to sign the Juan Soto's of the world but they do need the KC type signings and should be able to do that next off-season.

Offline Senatorswin

  • Posts: 2231
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #193: June 11, 2024, 10:49:28 AM »
Turner is living up to his contract so far. But we've dodged bullets with everyone else except Harper, and we won a WS the year after Harper left.

It's incredible that the Nats succeeded with all 3 of their big FA signings (yes, Corbin was a success given his 2019 performance), and everyone we let get away (except Harper and the jury is still out on Turner) failed to live up to their contracts (JZ, Desmond, and Rendon).

The Turner signing looked like a total disaster the first half of last year but I guess he just needed to relax from the big contract. I guess Rizzo knows what he's doing except when it comes to the draft.

Offline Smithian

  • Posts: 11749
  • Sunshine Squad 2024
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #194: June 11, 2024, 11:25:19 AM »
I am pretty much at peace with the Juan Soto era. He came to Washington, he won a championship, ownership crashed the franchise, and in hindsight Rizzo made the best of an awful situation with Juan Soto. CJ Abram probably will never be an All Star, but he is at least a starting batter. Mackenzie Gore will be in the rotation for a long time. James Wood and Robert Hassell still may come contribute.

If we wake up in 2027 and the Nationals still have a couple of those guys on the roster as contributors and the we have a winning team with enough of payroll flexibility (top half of MLB) to compete, I'll be pretty content with the Soto trade. It will have been a move to jump start a rebuild and to open up roster construction without having to pay $35-$40 million a year to a player who may be a great hitter but may be a DH or 1B before too long.

It is not criticism to say Soto was probably destined to be a Yankee or Dodger or Red Sox. He is going to maximize his value. It's a business, he's playing by the rules. The Nationals are likely never going to carry a Top 5 payroll over a long period.

The only question left to answer is does the Soto trade go down as cheap ownership? Or does it go down as the Nationals making a smart move to jump start a rebuild? In the moment, "cheap" was easy argument. Since then, the Nationals improved their record by 16 wins last season and are on track to improve again. The book isn't closed on how this is going to go down. Let's hope this offseason sees investment into the team so that we can talk about the happy option, not the depressing one.

Offline Five Banners

  • Posts: 2378
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #195: June 11, 2024, 11:39:22 AM »
Turner is living up to his contract so far. But we've dodged bullets with everyone else except Harper, and we won a WS the year after Harper left.

It's incredible that the Nats succeeded with all 3 of their big FA signings (yes, Corbin was a success given his 2019 performance), and everyone we let get away (except Harper and the jury is still out on Turner) failed to live up to their contracts (JZ, Desmond, and Rendon).

LAG — Lerners are geniuses

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 21678
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #196: June 11, 2024, 01:06:15 PM »
I am pretty much at peace with the Juan Soto era. He came to Washington, he won a championship, ownership crashed the franchise, and in hindsight Rizzo made the best of an awful situation with Juan Soto. CJ Abram probably will never be an All Star, but he is at least a starting batter. Mackenzie Gore will be in the rotation for a long time. James Wood and Robert Hassell still may come contribute.

If we wake up in 2027 and the Nationals still have a couple of those guys on the roster as contributors and the we have a winning team with enough of payroll flexibility (top half of MLB) to compete, I'll be pretty content with the Soto trade. It will have been a move to jump start a rebuild and to open up roster construction without having to pay $35-$40 million a year to a player who may be a great hitter but may be a DH or 1B before too long.

It is not criticism to say Soto was probably destined to be a Yankee or Dodger or Red Sox. He is going to maximize his value. It's a business, he's playing by the rules. The Nationals are likely never going to carry a Top 5 payroll over a long period.

The only question left to answer is does the Soto trade go down as cheap ownership? Or does it go down as the Nationals making a smart move to jump start a rebuild? In the moment, "cheap" was easy argument. Since then, the Nationals improved their record by 16 wins last season and are on track to improve again. The book isn't closed on how this is going to go down. Let's hope this offseason sees investment into the team so that we can talk about the happy option, not the depressing one.

2027. 5 years is a losing franchise that bumbles into a decent team (remains to be seen) not a rebuild

Offline Slateman

  • Posts: 64915
  • THE SUMMONER OF THE REVERSE JINX
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #197: June 11, 2024, 02:00:36 PM »
https://www.essentiallysports.com/mlb-baseball-news-hed-rather-as-juan-soto-injury-lingers-top-insider-wonders-about-its-potential-implications-on-the-new-york-yankees-stars-free-agency/

Seems pretty obvious that Boras wants to go to free agency and he has Soto under the belief that he can get more and he has an obligation to set a new market.

Offline SkinsNatFan21RIP

  • Posts: 1127
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #198: June 11, 2024, 04:03:36 PM »
At the beginning of free agency the Nats and Harper couldn't agree on a contract so the Nats spent money on other players. When Harper still didn't have a contract Boras and Harper met with old man Lerner. Harper wanted to sign with the Nats and since the Nats had spent the money elsewhere they didn't sign Harper. You're right, they could of. Of course the Nats went on to win the World Series the next year so we'll never know if they would of if they had signed Harper. Supposedly Trea Turner was upset when he was traded from the Nats so maybe they could of come up with a deal with him but it would of been tough to match what the Phillies gave him. That contract goes until he is 40. I have a feeling the last 4 years or so are going to be pretty ugly. Still, the problem with baseball is whenever a star becomes a free agent there are the same teams that can get them. Every time it's a team with a huge local TV deal. The way the NFL is set up everybody has an equal chance.

This is my biggest issue with baseball and the reason I continue to beat the drum for a salary cap. There needs to be a floor and a ceiling for spending. Its absolutely ridiculous that the Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Phillies, Red Sox etc. can just outspend everyone so the rest of the league operates like 5% of the leagues farm system. In the NFL Juan Soto is a National for the majority of his career. In Baseball he's destined to wind up in New York or LA and there's nothing his original team can do about it. And then, to top it all off, they add the dumbest draft lottery in all of sports to screw these teams that can't compete spending-wise even further. Its just an insanely stupid and poorly run league. I mean, look at the Ohtani Situation. He wasn't subject to the draft which is just crazy to begin with and then the Dodgers just do what they always do and throw cash at him that nobody else can afford. Its a major problem that baseball has largely ignored but at some point fans of teams that have no chance every year will just start to walk away. Its heading in a direction where it will basically be Georgia vs Temple every day and if you're a fan of Temple you know what's coming so why even bother?

Offline HalfSmokes

  • Posts: 21678
Re: Juan Soto, Yankee
« Reply #199: June 11, 2024, 04:24:18 PM »
Ironically, baseball has far more parity than football