Rule 5 Draft: 2023

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I mentioned how Nunez sort of looks like Billy Burns offensively coming up.

Good plate discipline up through AA, but as he got to AAA and the majors, he so lacked power that basically pitchers just let him hit it. Still, he had one season with 102 wRC+ (2015) and was able to hold down a regular spot in the As lineup.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/billy-burns/12701/stats?position=OF

[Senatorswin]

Im just hoping this signals a willingness to move Abrams to second base

I didn't realize just how awesome Abrams was at short until I looked it up. I think he got better as the year went on also. I saw a list of the top 20 listed. I assume the other 10 teams either didn't have a shortstop with enough chances or were too bad to list. Here's how Abrams measured up. Wow.

Total Chances - 651. Nobody else even had 600.

Put Outs - 245. Nobody else even had 200 except Pena with exactly 200.

Assists - 384. Third behind Lindor and Tovar.

Errors - 22. Second worse to Trea Turners 23. More chances though and I think a lot were earlier in the year. Not sure though.

Double Plays - 100. Only one in triple digits and it's not like he had a great fielding second baseman. Candy at third probably helped though.

Fielding Percentage - .966. 17th. Not great but again believed to have improved.

Range Factor - 4.37. The only other ones with 4.00 were Rojas and Swanson with exactly 4.00

DWAR - 1.3. 7th.

[Slateman]

I didn't realize just how awesome Abrams was at short until I looked it up. I think he got better as the year went on also. I saw a list of the top 20 listed. I assume the other 10 teams either didn't have a shortstop with enough chances or were too bad to list. Here's how Abrams measured up. Wow.

Total Chances - 651. Nobody else even had 600.

Put Outs - 245. Nobody else even had 200 except Pena with exactly 200.

Assists - 384. Third behind Lindor and Tovar.

Errors - 22. Second worse to Trea Turners 23. More chances though and I think a lot were earlier in the year. Not sure though.

Double Plays - 100. Only one in triple digits and it's not like he had a great fielding second baseman. Candy at third probably helped though.

Fielding Percentage - .966. 17th. Not great but again believed to have improved.

Range Factor - 4.37. The only other ones with 4.00 were Rojas and Swanson with exactly 4.00

DWAR - 1.3. 7th.

-9 OAA, 48th percentile in arm strength. One of the worst defenders at shortstop.

Total chances and subsequent putouts and assists are a result of the inability of the pitching to get strikeouts. Same for double plays, its simply the result of having more baserunners. And, regarding fielding percentage, he was 17th .... out of 20 qualified shortstops. So thats pretty freaking terrible.

Its not 1978. We dont use RBIs, pitcher wins, or fielding percentage to evaluate a player. Advanced metrics show what every scouting report has said: His arm isnt good enough. He will work out nicely at second base.

[Senatorswin]

-9 OAA, 48th percentile in arm strength. One of the worst defenders at shortstop.

Total chances and subsequent putouts and assists are a result of the inability of the pitching to get strikeouts. Same for double plays, its simply the result of having more baserunners. And, regarding fielding percentage, he was 17th .... out of 20 qualified shortstops. So thats pretty freaking terrible.

Its not 1978. We dont use RBIs, pitcher wins, or fielding percentage to evaluate a player. Advanced metrics show what every scouting report has said: His arm isnt good enough. He will work out nicely at second base.

He did make 22 errors which is a lot but if his arm was that bad he wouldn't have been able to throw so many out. This coming will tell a lot more but I think he's at short to stay with what he's shown so far.
Some of those stats are overthinking by stat heads.

[nobleisthyname]

-9 OAA, 48th percentile in arm strength. One of the worst defenders at shortstop.

FWIW, the other two advanced fielding metrics, UZR and DRS think he's a plus defensive shortstop (4.8 and 4 respectively). It's why BRef had him worth 3.4 WAR while Fangraphs had him worth only 2.1 WAR.  BRef uses DRS and Fangraphs uses OAA.

[Slateman]

FWIW, the other two advanced fielding metrics, UZR and DRS think he's a plus defensive shortstop (4.8 and 4 respectively). It's why BRef had him worth 3.4 WAR while Fangraphs had him worth only 2.1 WAR.  BRef uses DRS and Fangraphs uses OAA.

FG dWAR calculation has him dead last in defensive value

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=ss&type=8

He couldnt beat out Tatis for the shortstop position and they were going to stick him in CF.

[Slateman]

He did make 22 errors which is a lot but if his arm was that bad he wouldn't have been able to throw so many out. This coming will tell a lot more but I think he's at short to stay with what he's shown so far.
Some of those stats are overthinking by stat heads.

Most throwing errors among shortstops in baseball.

[nobleisthyname]

FG dWAR calculation has him dead last in defensive value

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&qual=y&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&stats=fld&pos=ss&type=8

He couldnt beat out Tatis for the shortstop position and they were going to stick him in CF.

Yes, Fangraphs dWAR uses OAA which you already established doesn't rate him favorably. Again that's why there's such a big discrepancy between his fWAR and his rWAR. rWAR uses DRS which does rate him favorably.

[nobleisthyname]

Also keeping Tatis over Abrams at short doesn't mean anything. The Padres also put Bogaerts over Kim at short.

[Senatorswin]

Yes, Fangraphs dWAR uses OAA which you already established doesn't rate him favorably. Again that's why there's such a big discrepancy between his fWAR and his rWAR. rWAR uses DRS which does rate him favorably.

Which is why a lot of these stats are not valid in my opinion.  If you get to a lot of balls with range that counts for a lot in my book.

[Slateman]

Yes, Fangraphs dWAR uses OAA which you already established doesn't rate him favorably. Again that's why there's such a big discrepancy between his fWAR and his rWAR. rWAR uses DRS which does rate him favorably.

FGs uses UZR for their calculations

DRS gives credit for things outside of the fielder's control, like double plays, and range ratings. Also, his 4 DRS puts him in the back half of shortstops. And he is probably that high up because of all the double plays, which is directly linked to Nats pitching having a .346 OBP against

[Slateman]

Which is why a lot of these stats are not valid in my opinion.  If you get to a lot of balls with range that counts for a lot in my book.

Hes not getting a lot of batted balls because of his range, he's getting then because Nats pitching is awful

[nobleisthyname]

Which is why a lot of these stats are not valid in my opinion.  If you get to a lot of balls with range that counts for a lot in my book.

Eh, they're as valid as the more traditional stats you quoted in my opinion. They just require a larger sample size and generally best not to be used in isolation.

Actually it's pretty rare for there to be this big a discrepancy between OAA and UZR/DRS. It will be interesting to see how they view him next season.

[nobleisthyname]

FGs uses UZR for their calculations

DRS gives credit for things outside of the fielder's control, like double plays, and range ratings. Also, his 4 DRS puts him in the back half of shortstops. And he is probably that high up because of all the double plays, which is directly linked to Nats pitching having a .346 OBP against

Not since 2022 (retroactive to 2016).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

[Slateman]

Eh, they're as valid as the more traditional stats you quoted in my opinion. They just require a larger sample size and generally best not to be used in isolation.

Actually it's pretty rare for there to be this big a discrepancy between OAA and UZR/DRS. It will be interesting to see how they view him next season.

Whats more interesting is OAA is more based on measurable range and time to get to the ball. Abrams should have a great OAA .... except his arm keeps him from making the play once he gets there.

[Senatorswin]

Hes not getting a lot of batted balls because of his range, he's getting then because Nats pitching is awful

Well if all these stats are so great his range is graded on these stats and his range is rated very high.

[Slateman]

Not since 2022 (retroactive to 2016).

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-fangraphs-war-fielding-update/

That explains their negative defensive rating. They used the -9 OAA in the calculations.

UZR and UZR/150 was intended for much larger sample sizes

[Slateman]

Well if all these stats are so great his range is graded on these stats and his range is rated very high.

No, thats not how that works. He's simply getting more chances because the pitching is giving up more contact.

[Senatorswin]

No, thats not how that works. He's simply getting more chances because the pitching is giving up more contact.

That's not consistent though because some guys on teams with good pitching don't have a have a good range rating and some guys with bad pitching have bad range values. I think that statement is speculation.

[Natsinpwc]

There is still lots of voodoo in the new defensive analytics.  That’s why they sometimes disagree.  It seems also great variation from year to year for some players. 

I think Abrams can get better at SS.  He will never have a great arm but he is quick.  Just needs to clean up some of the errors in routine plays.  If they can het a better defensive SS who can hit a bit then he can move to 2B. It’s not like we have a superstar there. 

Bryson Stott was generally rated bad defensively at SS in 2022. Then a gold glove nominee at 2B in 2023. How much of that was the shift in position and how much just getting  acclimated to MLB?  How much was because he was hitting better and more relaxed in the field?  A lot of Phillies fans think he should be at SS going forward and Trea at 2B. I didn’t know about that but I think he would do much better this time around at SS. I may be mistaken but I think CJ started making fewer errors as his hitting picked up. 

Baseball is 90 percent mental.  And the other half is physical.

[nobleisthyname]

Whats more interesting is OAA is more based on measurable range and time to get to the ball. Abrams should have a great OAA .... except his arm keeps him from making the play once he gets there.

This is something I wasn't super clear on. As I understand it, OAA for outfielders only cares about balls caught and grades the player on how tough/easy those catches are. It doesn't care at all about outfielder arm strength. But how does it work for infielders? Are players graded purely on the balls they're able (or not able) to reach? Or do they actually have to record the assist to get full credit?

If its the latter, then I think there's still room for improvement for Abrams in the eyes of OAA if he can cut down on all the throwing errors.

[Natsinpwc]

Baseball defense year to year is like hockey goaltending. Voodoo.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Baseball defense year to year is like hockey goaltending. Voodoo.

a bit. The folks who used to boost UZR used to say you need about 3 years of data before it starts to look like a reliable measure of a defender's skills. I mean, Michael Taylor is volatile too on some defensive measures, and there's little question he's substantially above average as a defender.

[nobleisthyname]

a bit. The folks who used to boost UZR used to say you need about 3 years of data before it starts to look like a reliable measure of a defender's skills. I mean, Michael Taylor is volatile too on some defensive measures, and there's little question he's substantially above average as a defender.

Yeah, and a lot can happen in 3 years between injuries and just general aging which throws another wrench into things. I think OAA is supposed to stabilize faster though.

[blue911]

No, thats not how that works. He's simply getting more chances because the pitching is giving up more contact.

This is why Player A can have greater value than Player B, who is a better defender.

One year the Indians pitchers had 500 more strikeouts than the Twins. The Twins were rated far ahead of the Indians by defensive matrix.