Rule 5 Draft: 2023

[imref]

Deadline to add players to the 40-man to protect them from the rule-5 draft is Tuesday, November 14 at 5PM CT.

A look at whose eligible:
http://www.nationalsarmrace.com/?p=18267

Right now, it doesn't look they will protect anyone other than DJ Herz though Mitchel Parker is a possibility. NAR suggests Andry Lara is a candidate for protection as well.

Draft is December 6.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Brzykcy I think would be another possible guy to protect.

I wonder if they try to waive early the guys they could outright so they have a better idea of their depth when they finalize the roster. That's why I wonder about Abbott and Smith in particular.  Abbott is AAAA, so can be easily replaced or re-signed to a minor league contract with a camp invite. Parker is a lefty and could be a kept around like Ward by another team if he were drafted.

[imref]

Nats add Herz, Mitchell Parker, Cole Henry, and Zach Brzykcy to the 40-man.

[nobleisthyname]

I know they all have their question marks on whether they're actually worth a Rule 5 pick, but I'm glad to have all of them on the 40-man over Smith, Abbott, and Machado.

[imref]

It's a really good sign that they are confident enough in Henry to add him.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

the thing with Henry and Brzykcy is a team could draft them and stash them on the 60 day IL, then add them back in the 2d half for 3 months to keep them. Especially Brz... It's easy to have him as the last reliever as a lefty. As for Parker, he showed something and could be one of the depth arms if he has a decent AAA season.

I imagine the Rochester rotation now as having Adon, one of Rutledge or Irvin, Herz, and Parker, with a AAAA guy like Abbott as the 5th guy.

[imref]

the thing with Henry and Brzykcy is a team could draft them and stash them on the 60 day IL, then add them back in the 2d half for 3 months to keep them. Especially Brz... It's easy to have him as the last reliever as a lefty. As for Parker, he showed something and could be one of the depth arms if he has a decent AAA season.

I imagine the Rochester rotation now as having Adon, one of Rutledge or Irvin, Herz, and Parker, with a AAAA guy like Abbott as the 5th guy.

Plus Corbin

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Plus Corbin

well, I think Corbin will be in MLB with Williams, Gray, Gore, and one of Irvin or Adon unless there's a signing. But that's a pretty decent AAA rotation. I could even see one or two guys in AA if there are a couple of filler AAAA vets signed for Rochester.

[welch]

I think Irvin and Rutledge will be put into the rotation, with Williams as long-reliever. Maybe, maybe, Williams starts for two months. With luck, Cavalli is ready by early August and the team can reduce Corbin's starts.

The bullpen looks OK...Finnegan, Harvey, Rainey, Weems, Garcia, and another lefty. Maybe Thompson discovers his control...

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/40-man-roster-deadline-reaction-and-analysis-american-league/

Longenhagen.

tl;dr - No sure fire help. Lots of relievers could possibly be hidden on a roster all season like Ward was. One guy his was specific about who might have starter potential is Chih-Jung Liu. 95 velo as a starter, plus breaking ball, average split). Not great results, so this is a stuff play.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chih-jung-liu/sa3014675/stats?position=P

Notes KC left unprotected a number of guys they traded for in in veteran dumps, which most likely means they misevaluated the talent. Unstated is one of these guys might be an oops the other way.

NYY exposed a couple of starters.

[Slateman]

Cole Wilcox was left unprotected. That was the guy everyone was convinced Rizzo was going to take in the first round of the 2020 draft.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Cole Wilcox was left unprotected. That was the guy everyone was convinced Rizzo was going to take in the first round of the 2020 draft.

3rd round draft choice by Padres with a $3.3 million bonus by the Padres. Traded as part of the Blake Snell package. Then:

While his Low-A assignment to start 2021 was a very conservative line for the Rays to take, Wilcox only walked five hitters in 44 innings there before he was shut down with an injury that would ultimately lead to Tommy John surgery in September and cost him most of ’22. He made a few short rehab appearances on the complex in August and four Low-A starts after that, working two to three innings at a time, with his fastball in the 91-94 mph range. It was such a quick return from the TJ that it’s too early to be worried about the arm strength regression. The sink and tail on Wilcox’s fastball causes hitters to chop it into the ground, which helps embolden him to go right at them and work efficiently. This, plus his burly, innings-eating frame, has us locked in on him as a starter prospect even though he’s only thrown about 85 innings combined as a starter since 2020. If there’s anything that might hinder that, it’s that Wilcox has barely gotten reps with his split/change because of his initial ‘pen role in college, the time missed due to the pandemic, and now the timing of his surgery. When it’s right, he has a biting, two-plane out pitch in his slider, which sits in the 85-89 mph range and often has more length than any pitch that hard has a right to be. His peak fastball, slider and present command would be enough to project Wilcox in a late-inning bullpen role, but a better change or split (the development of which was slowed by his freshman role) would enable him to be a mid-rotation piece.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tampa-bay-rays-top-48-prospects-2023/

The bold has Rizzo / Davey / Hickey written all over him. he was the #11 prospect, a 45 FV, on the Rays Fangraphs list going into the year, but he got beat up this year in AA with a 5.23 ERA / 4.92 FIP over 106 innings. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm moving this thread to the Clubhouse because anyone we draft will need to be on the MLB roster unless we work a trade.

Along these lines, here's a list of one unprotected player who may get taken per club.

https://www.mlb.com/nationals/news/one-intriguing-rule-5-draft-prospect-for-each-team

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Rockies: Aaron Schunk, 3B/2B (No. 27)
The Georgia product was a second-rounder in 2019, and he's had an uneven climb up the organizational radar. But he has a full year in Triple-A under his belt, where he hit .290/.350/.461. That wasn't just because of playing home games at hitter-friendly Albuquerque, as he hit on the road as well, so teams could be intrigued with his advanced bat and ability to play two infield spots.

from the one intriguing prospect link above.

also, this guy is playing 3B/1b/DH, had a good second half of the year (7/14 forward) at AA.

D-backs: Deyvison De Los Santos, 3B/1B (No. 5)
The highest-ranked prospect left unprotected this year, De Los Santos struggled mightily in his age-20 season at Double-A Amarillo, hitting .206/.269/.308 in 63 games before being sent back to Arizona to work on his swing. He hit .313/.333/.573 with 13 homers in 51 games after his return, giving hope that he could be back on a path toward meeting his power-first ceiling as a regular corner infielder. While it's tempting to roll the dice on his plus-plus raw pop, Rule 5 clubs would have to be sure that his adjustments (which also included being super aggressive) were real.

Second half numbers: .312 / .333 /.580, with 13 HRs
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/deyvison-de-los-santos/sa3015168/game-log?type=-2&gds=2023-07-12&gde=2023-09-17&season=&position=3B

Maybe you bring him in for the spring and see if the 2nd half was for real. OTOH, with House / Morales / Lipscomb, maybe a corner IF isn't worth rolling dice as much as one of the many pitching options. Easier to keep a pitcher up for a year, and it's not like the bullpen is super-deep.

[Slateman]

from the one intriguing prospect link above.

also, this guy is playing 3B/1b/DH, had a good second half of the year (7/14 forward) at AA.

Second half numbers: .312 / .333 /.580, with 13 HRs
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/deyvison-de-los-santos/sa3015168/game-log?type=-2&gds=2023-07-12&gde=2023-09-17&season=&position=3B

Maybe you bring him in for the spring and see if the 2nd half was for real. OTOH, with House / Morales / Lipscomb, maybe a corner IF isn't worth rolling dice as much as one of the many pitching options. Easier to keep a pitcher up for a year, and it's not like the bullpen is super-deep.

Sounds good to me.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Sounds good to me.

schunk or de los santos or a pitcher?

[Slateman]

schunk or de los santos or a pitcher?

De Los Santos and/or a pitcher

[imref]

NationalsSource suggests Marlins #23 prospect Troy Johnston as a possibility for the Nats. LH 1B/OF.

.323. / .403 / .520 / 8 HR in 198 AB's at AAA last year. .296   .396   .567 with 18 HRs in 314 ABs at AA.

26 years old.

organizational all-star per mlb.com:

1B: Troy Johnston (MIA No. 21)
AA/AAA: .307/.399/.549, 134 G, 26 HR, 116 RBI, 102 R, 62 BB, 24 SB
Johnston was an unstoppable force on offense in 2023. The lefty slugger finished top three in the organization in nearly every offensive category and posted career marks across the board. His 26 big flies include back-to-back two-homer games in April and an additional two-jack game on July 9. Johnston's power has been evident since turning pro, as he has eclipsed double-digit roundtrippers each of the past three seasons; however, this summer was the first time he showed off his wheels. His 24 stolen bases are a drastic increase after he tallied 11 stolen bases over the past three years.

"I think he studied Paul Goldschmidt and kind of how he goes about his first-base profile and trying to steal bases," Crespo said. "He was an elite baserunner for us."

i'm surprised the Marlins would leave him unprotected.  Seems he would be a cheap way to address our need for a 1B upgrade / placeholder until Morales arrives.

[Natsinpwc]

Gonzaga guy.  Late bloomer or just a flash in the pan season?  Slugging went from .423 in 2022 to .529 in 2023.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=johnst000tro

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-interest-2023-rule-5-draft#:~:text=At%202%20p.m.%20ET%20(1,make%20a%20Major%20League%20roster.

mentions both Johnston and Cole Wilcox (RHP), who Slate brought up.

Looks like there's a lot of RHPs available, too.

One other name to think about is Anthony Prato, a utility infielder for the Twins who hit well at AAA in 2023 and A+ and AA in 2022.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-prato/sa1052903/stats?position=2B/OF

While Vargas has the backup job, a guy like this could push Garcia and Alu at 2d.

Draft starts at 2.

[Slateman]

https://www.mlb.com/news/players-of-interest-2023-rule-5-draft#:~:text=At%202%20p.m.%20ET%20(1,make%20a%20Major%20League%20roster.

mentions both Johnston and Cole Wilcox (RHP), who Slate brought up.

Looks like there's a lot of RHPs available, too.

One other name to think about is Anthony Prato, a utility infielder for the Twins who hit well at AAA in 2023 and A+ and AA in 2022.
https://www.fangraphs.com/players/anthony-prato/sa1052903/stats?position=2B/OF

While Vargas has the backup job, a guy like this could push Garcia and Alu at 2d.

Draft starts at 2.

Im down with Johnston. Perfect opportunity to give him ample at bats at first or DH.

The only issue I have with Wilcox is he isnt ready for the big leagues and he isnt even close to ready. Feels like it would be a repeat situation as we had with Ward.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I'm guessing a pitcher they can stash in the bullpen again. Ward, but not coming off TJS. Not what I want, but I'm guessing they try for.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Nats take Nassim Nunez, MI, from Miami. Great glove but not much of a hitting rep. Discussed in a few draft previews.

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/nasim-nunez/sa3010695/stats?position=SS

#13 on Marlins FG prospect list:

13. Nasim Nuñez, SS
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Collins Hill HS (GA) (MIA)
Age   22.8   Height   5′ 9″   Weight   168   Bat / Thr   S / R   FV   40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit   Raw Power   Game Power   Run   Fielding   Throw
30/40   30/30   20/30   60/60   60/70   50
Nuñez is among the more entertaining defensive players in the minors, a bold and acrobatic middle infielder who will attempt to do some ridiculous things around the bag (and often succeed). His hands and actions are very special, while his arm strength is not. There are times when Nuñez should holster the baseball rather than try to make a highlight play or ill-advised throw, but otherwise he’s an impact defender at a premium position, and this alone should enable him to have a long big league career. While he shows plus plate discipline and about average bat-to-ball feel, Nuñez’s total lack of physicality is going to make it tough for him to play a big role. He’s much more likely to be a defensive replacement than a heavily used utilityman or part-time starter, in part because it’s likely his OBP skills won’t play as well against big league arms who’ll attack the singles-hitting Nuñez with impunity. You could argue Nuñez’s glove is special enough to hit the gas on his valuation a little bit here, but this is where a glove-only contributor at the big league level tends to fall.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

DE Los Santos went #10 to Cleveland.  Johnston was untaken. The 4 picks before the Nats were 3 RHP and an LHP.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-rule-5-draft-order-results/

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Marlins: Nasim Nuñez, SS/2B (No. 16)
Nuñez's toolset is one of extremes, as he's an elite defender with well above-average speed and arm strength but also a below-average hitter with zero power. The 2019 second-rounder from a Georgia high school won Futures Game MVP honors in July and batted .224/.341/.286 with a Double-A Southern League-best 52 steals.

https://www.mlb.com/news/one-intriguing-rule-5-draft-prospect-for-each-team?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage