2023-24 free agency, trades, and signings

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Looking at that list, I'd like to see the Nats take a flyer on a few of the SPs on short projected contracts in the $8-12 million AAV range. There's quantity there. It's also interesting to see Flaherty projected in that range. The market is top heavy with pitchers, so maybe that's not ridiculous. I could see him looking for a 1 year deal to reset his market, perhaps short money if there's a player option in there. For the hitters, I think Lourdes Gurriel is a touch out of the price range.

[imref]

Looking at that list, I'd like to see the Nats take a flyer on a few of the SPs on short projected contracts in the $8-12 million AAV range. There's quantity there. It's also interesting to see Flaherty projected in that range. The market is top heavy with pitchers, so maybe that's not ridiculous. I could see him looking for a 1 year deal to reset his market, perhaps short money if there's a player option in there. For the hitters, I think Lourdes Gurriel is a touch out of the price range.

The rotation going into next year is Gray, Gore, Irvin, Rutledge, and Corbin, with Williams either as another starter or shifting to the pen. And Cavalli should be back by June as well.

So if we sign a starter, do we push Rutledge back to Rochester or shift Corbin to the pen?

[nobleisthyname]

The Nats seem to have pretty decent pitching depth at the moment, but are severely lacking in top-end quality. They're unlikely to be as lucky with pitching health as they were last season so adding an extra arm is never really a bad idea, but anyone in the ~$10M range won't be moving the needle in quality all that much.

Wish they would go after Yamamoto but that's just a fantasy.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The rotation going into next year is Gray, Gore, Irvin, Rutledge, and Corbin, with Williams either as another starter or shifting to the pen. And Cavalli should be back by June as well.

So if we sign a starter, do we push Rutledge back to Rochester or shift Corbin to the pen?

Q is whether they see Rutledge as a starter or a reliever. If he's a starter then he's probably on a shuttle between Rochester and DC. Also, don't forget that they went with 6 starters for a stretch.

As for Cavalli - the "back by June" I've taken as he'll be back on the mound. I don't think they start him straight away in DC. I think that he's up in August if things go well. Corbin and Williams could be gone by then.

The only two pitchers on that list who are locks to start and end the season in rotation, assuming they are healthy, are Gore and Gray. I don't think the verdict is in on whether Irvin is a long term rotation piece, despite a nice showing last year for the bulk of the year.

[Slateman]

Cavalli doesnt need to come up until June. And we could easily start Rutledge in Triple A

[Natsinpwc]

Williams will be in the rotation to start next season. They are not paying him $13 million a year to be a long reliever.  Injuries almost always happen so good to have some depth. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Williams will be in the rotation to start next season. They are not paying him $13 million a year to be a long reliever.  Injuries almost always happen so good to have some depth. 

$7 million. $13 million was for 2 years.

[Slateman]

Williams will be in the rotation to start next season. They are not paying him $13 million a year to be a long reliever.  Injuries almost always happen so good to have some depth. 

Williams is only getting 7 million next year. It was a two year deal for 13 million. Which, it sounds like is basically what JCA was suggesting. And I don't think its a bad idea. We got really lucky with starting pitcher health this year. I don't think thats something we should rely on. Running out a rotation to start next season of Corbin, Gray, Gore, Williams, Free Agent is fine. If Williams is suddenly awesome, then you let him roll until the deadline. Likewise, if he is terrible as a starter, then you have a perfect justification to move him to the pen and call up Irvin, Cavalli, or Rutledge. And then you have some depth when the injuries start to roll in.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Three guys I'm interested in in that price range would Wacha, Lugo, and Flaherty. No more than 2 years on any of them. Maybe 3 on Wacha.  I wonder if Flaherty would go for a similar deal to what Wacha signed - #5 money for a player option in 2025, #3 money for a team option in 2025.

[Natsinpwc]

Williams is only getting 7 million next year. It was a two year deal for 13 million. Which, it sounds like is basically what JCA was suggesting. And I don't think its a bad idea. We got really lucky with starting pitcher health this year. I don't think thats something we should rely on. Running out a rotation to start next season of Corbin, Gray, Gore, Williams, Free Agent is fine. If Williams is suddenly awesome, then you let him roll until the deadline. Likewise, if he is terrible as a starter, then you have a perfect justification to move him to the pen and call up Irvin, Cavalli, or Rutledge. And then you have some depth when the injuries start to roll in.

Ok. My bad on that contract. 

[Natsinpwc]

$7 million. $13 million was for 2 years.

Got ya.

[Senatorswin]

I was under the impression when Williams was signed by the Nats the agreement was he would be a starter because he no longer wanted to be a reliever. If that is true, I guess depending on the wording of the contract the Nats could still put him in the pen against his wishes. Davey had high praise for Williams at the end of the season though so at this point I think he is a lock for the rotation.

[Slateman]

I was under the impression when Williams was signed by the Nats the agreement was he would be a starter because he no longer wanted to be a reliever. If that is true, I guess depending on the wording of the contract the Nats could still put him in the pen against his wishes. Davey had high praise for Williams at the end of the season though so at this point I think he is a lock for the rotation.

Correct. But if he cant perform as a starter, Nats have no reason to use him that way in the last year of his deal here

[GataNats]

Williams shouldn’t even be on the team let alone in the rotation.  Worst guy on the squad

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Williams shouldn’t even be on the team let alone in the rotation.  Worst guy on the squad

you expect them to eat $7 million and release him?

[aspenbubba]

you expect them to eat $7 million and release him?

They have done that before with a starting pitcher and it wasn't Hellickson. I'm having a recall problem .

[JCA-CrystalCity]

The only contracts I recall them eating were Papelbon and perhaps R. Soriano.

[Natsinpwc]

Williams was decent early in the year.  He pitched about 145 innings and wore down as the season went on.  Almost a 60 percent increase over his innings the two previous years. Had not pitched that much since 2019 when he was last a full time starter. He should be better able to sustain his performance in 2024. Best scenario is that he does well and they can trade him at the deadline. 

And yea the owners are not going to eat that salary.

[aspenbubba]

The only contracts I recall them eating were Papelbon and perhaps R. Soriano.

Nope, he had a pretty good track record as a reliever and was just atrocious here. Went to another team and I believe he was cut and then rebounded for another team.

EDIT: Trevor Rosenthal . I think his contract was for 7 M a year also. P

[Slateman]

Williams was decent early in the year.  He pitched about 145 innings and wore down as the season went on.  Almost a 60 percent increase over his innings the two previous years. Had not pitched that much since 2019 when he was last a full time starter. He should be better able to sustain his performance in 2024. Best scenario is that he does well and they can trade him at the deadline. 

And yea the owners are not going to eat that salary.

Right. I think they let Williams startin the rotation and see if injuries or minor league performance force them to make a change.

[blue911]

I would prefer if Williams was used ala Miguel Batista.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/top-25-offseason-trade-candidates.html

though they don't make the top 25, Harvey and Thomas are the Nats honorable mentions.

[Senatorswin]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/top-25-offseason-trade-candidates.html

though they don't make the top 25, Harvey and Thomas are the Nats honorable mentions.

Interesting it's Harvey and not Finnegan.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting it's Harvey and not Finnegan.

he's cheaper, same amount of team control, and has better stats. Neither probably would close for a good team. 

[JCA-CrystalCity]

Interesting DFA yesterday:

The Guardians designated right-hander Cal Quantrill for assignment yesterday rather than pay him a raise in arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects a 2024 salary of $6.6MM. It was a somewhat unexpected move; while Quantrill struggled badly in 2023 amid shoulder issues, he combined for a 3.16 ERA and 4.10 FIP across 336 innings of work across the 2021-22 campaigns while swinging between the rotation and the bullpen. Now the Guardians will have a final opportunity to attempt to work out a trade involving Quantrill or expose him to outright waivers.

That being said, it’s possible the widespread need for starting pitching around the league and the increase to the price of pitching in recent years could spur additional interest in Quantrill’s services. It would hardly be a shock if a club preferred two years of team control over Quantrill at an arbitration-level rate to the pricier commitments bounce-back starters like Noah Syndergaard (one year, $13MM) and Sean Manaea (two years, $25MM) received on the open market last offseason.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/the-opener-cy-young-awards-quantrill-mlbtr-chat.html

This is sort of a no brainer for a claim, but I expect him to get dealt before he comes to the Nats on waivers.