Rintaro Sasaki

[imref]

17 year old Japanese phenom is coming to the US to play college ball to avoid the posting system. Should be draft-eligible in 2027.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38625565/japanese-hs-phenom-rintaro-sasaki-skips-npb-play-ncaa-baseball

[HalfSmokes]

Is being subject to the draft better than being subject to the posting system?

[Natsinpwc]

Is being subject to the draft better than being subject to the posting system?

I’m not sure but I believe you have to play several years in the NPB before you can be posted.  He’s trying to go directly to MLB.  Or to college and then the minors and then MLB.  It’s interesting because if he is a high draft pick he will get good money but if he slips he might have been better staying in Japan as he would likely reach the big show there faster.

[JCA-CrystalCity]

I suppose if you hit free agency around the same time you could be posted, then free agency is more lucrative. There's no posting fee. I don't know whether a rookie contract is better than what could be made in NPB. Figure $5-10 million bonus if he's a top half draftee, then 3 years of MLB minimum, plus 3 or 4 years of arb. It's a heck of a bet on himself. There's probably others, but the one who comes to mind was Junichi Tazawa, who went from the industrial leagues (outside the NPB posting system) to the Red Sox organization. He pitched a number of years as a reliever. Signed December 2008 at 22, had a cup of coffee the next season in 2009, then stuck in the majors from 2011-2018 He made close to $24 million.

[imref]

If he stayed in Japan he wouldn't be eligible to post until he had completed 9 seasons. So that would put him at age 27 or so before he could go to the majors.

Instead, he'll play 3 years of college ball and be draft eligible in 2027. He currently projects as as third-round pick, so it could turn out to have been more lucrative for him to stay in Japan. I assume he just wanted to try the fastest path to the majors. We'll see how it works out.